Today’s Jobs Report: Lose the Spin, Let the Numbers Talk

I love how political the monthly Jobs Report gets. Everyone has their own spin. Unfortunately, not everyone has math or facts, which are one and the same. Let the numbers talk.

Today’s Jobs Report: Lose the Spin, Let the Numbers Talk - j1

To that end, please see the charts and commentary below which should help you contextualize today's February jobs report.

 

Month-over-month Nonfarm Payrolls growth accelerated on a sequential basis, but are decelerating on a trending basis:

 

Today’s Jobs Report: Lose the Spin, Let the Numbers Talk - DD1

 

That deceleration is from a really high growth rate, however. The latest 3MMA is in the 88th percentile of all readings over the last 10 years, which compares to the 95th percentile recorded in the prior month.

 

On a Year-Over-Year basis, Total Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls are up 2.39%, the fastest rate of growth since MAY '00. The 2yr average of 2% is the fastest since NOV '00.

 

It would not behoove you to see MAY/NOV 2000 and say, "Well that was it for the market/economy." That was in a clear down-cycle. We are still in up-cycle mode.

 

How do we know? Well, A) the data is still accelerating. And B) the leading indicator for employment growth continues to support that conclusion:

 

Today’s Jobs Report: Lose the Spin, Let the Numbers Talk - DD2

 

In research, #math > storytelling. In risk management, #process > hope. In the seeking of context, @Hedgeye > the alternative.

 

 


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