Investing Ideas Newsletter

Takeaway: Current Investing Ideas: TLT, EDV, MUB, HOLX, PENN, YUM and RH.

Below are Hedgeye analysts’ latest updates on our seven current high-conviction long investing ideas and CEO Keith McCullough’s updated levels for each.

 

*Please note we added Penn Gaming (PENN) this week and removed Utilities (XLU) and Medidata Solutions (MDSO)

 

We also feature two additional pieces of content at the bottom.

Investing Ideas Newsletter      - levs 

Trade :: Trend :: Tail Process - These are three durations over which we analyze investment ideas and themes. Hedgeye has created a process as a way of characterizing our investment ideas and their risk profiles, to fit the investing strategies and preferences of our subscribers.

  • "Trade" is a duration of 3 weeks or less
  • "Trend" is a duration of 3 months or more
  • "Tail" is a duration of 3 years or less

CARTOON OF THE WEEK

Investing Ideas Newsletter      - Yellen cartoon 02.27.2015

IDEAS UPDATES

YUM

 

Yum! Brands has been on a tear, outperforming the SPX by 4.9% and 6.8% over the past week and month, respectively.  Our thesis is slowly becoming more mainstream, as activist talk has recently heated up. 

 

In fact, management seems to have gotten the memo as well and is now facing pressure from some of its largest shareholders.  In response, management implemented a shareholder friendly amendment to the company’s by-laws that will permit a shareholder, or group of shareholders, with 3% or more ownership of common stock (for three years or more), to nominate directors representing up to 20% of the board.

 

This is good news for several reasons: 1) an activist may be involved in the name 2) shareholders are speaking up 3) management is feeling the pressure and 4) management is open to adopting more shareholder friendly policies. 

 

Albeit seemingly minor, this is the best news we’ve received in a while regarding YUM.  We continue to believe there is significant upside here despite the stock’s strong recent outperformance.  This stock is one major announcement away from hitting $95.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter      - fred

penn

Penn National Gaming is the best way to play improving domestic regional gaming trends due to its superior operational management and unit growth opportunities.  Catalysts include positive estimate revisions, the opening of the first Massachusetts casino in June, and industry leading earnings growth in 2015 and 2016.

 

Click below to watch video we sent to subscribers this week.

Investing Ideas Newsletter      - RPP

HOLX

Shares of Hologic have risen over 22% since Hedgeye Healthcare sector head Tom Tobin added it to Investing Ideas on 1/2/15. The S&P 500 is up approximately 2% in that time. Tobin will provide an update on his HOLX thesis next week.

 

Click image to enlarge.

Investing Ideas Newsletter      - hopp

TLT | EDV | MUB

 

The U.S. economy is not booming, contrary to what you may have heard from various media "sources" after the Q3 2014 quarter-over-quarter annualized GDP print of +5.0%...Year-over-year (that's how you measure growth) U.S. GDP is closer to 2% than 4-5%. This is the most basic information in America despite the obfuscation by some.

 

Click image to enlarge.

Investing Ideas Newsletter      - whap

 

Long-term Treasury (EDV, TLT) and Municipal bond (MUB) exposure is where you want to be during this growth slowing, deflationary environment with a continued trend of U.S. dollar strength (fixed payments, in U.S. dollars are worth more).

 

Dollar up, rates down, = global deflation of asset prices (get out of commodities and volatile growth stocks)

 

After a big week of growth slowing data, we recommend you stay with the same positions that have worked over the intermediate-term:

 

Growth

  • Annualized GDP for Q4 revised down to +2.4% YoY in 4Q14 vs. the initial +2.5% print
  • Full-year 2014 GDP remains at +2.4% on a year-over-year annualized basis which differentiates the Hedgeye model
  • Friday’s revision remains far lower than the +3% growth expected by consensus or the “The economy is booming, +5.0% GDP!” allusion from unaccountable mainstream media sources

Inflation

In short, MORE DEFLATION which crushed those sectors leveraged to price inflation (ENERGY, COMMODITIES, and INDUSTRIALS among others)…

  • Core CPI, which the federal reserve anchors on for gauging a “healthy level of inflation” remained constant at +1.6% on a year-over year basis (which is below its 2% target)
  • CPI miss = lower rates for longer, which = Deflation with more USD strength
  • In other news, meat prices and shelter/rent is up +12% and 3.4% respectively (Does that feel like inflation?)

Policy (Lower for Longer)

A slight pivot in Janet Yellen’s commentary this week when she took the stand on Capitol Hill continues to support our call. IN SHORT, LOWER FOR LONGER.

  • Yellen put an end to the consensus bond-bear (bond bear is bullish on rates) fear-mongering of removing the word “patient”
  • She emphasized her concern (dovish) about inflation not achieving her “target”

Included below is a snapshot on how our GROWTH, INFLATION, POLICY ("GIP") comes together to help us target the asset classes most likely to outperform.

It’s a busy chart but it says to stay LONG of TLT/EDV/MUB!

 

Click image to enlarge.

Investing Ideas Newsletter      - beno

RH 

Shares of Restoration Hardware have underperformed WSM and the XRT index since the company pre-announced on 2/5/15. For the record, we think this story is very much on track and remains our favorite name in the retail space. 

Investing Ideas Newsletter      - RH chart 2 27

 

The biggest concern we’ve heard from investors following the pre-announce had to do with the company’s 24% sales growth deleveraging to 22% EPS growth. We think a few factors contributed to that.

 

1) Store closures and Openings – For the quarter sq. ft. grew by 9%, with the two biggest pieces of that growth opening at the end of 3Q and start of 4Q. Because of the shipping window (10-12 weeks) you get the expenses associated with paying rent, but no top line to offset that cost until at the very earliest start of 1Q.  

2) Dead Rent – Based on the company’s new store opening calendar in 2015, new stores that will open in the back half of 2015 just started to hit the P&L. It usually takes RH about 6 months to build out the interior of a new property after it receives the keys from the landlord, and RH pay’s rent the whole time.

3) Distribution Center – RH opened a new distribution center in 4Q. It will help the company gain shipping efficiencies over time, but those costs will be a headwind until they anniversary the opening next January.

 

If we step back and look at the year holistically. RH grew sales at 20% and earnings close to 40%. We expect that type of growth and then some in 2015.

 

* * * * * * * * * * 

ADDITIONAL RESEARCH CONTENT BELOW

Ici fund flow survey: slightly less defensive

For the first time in 2015, all equity products outpaced all fixed income products in the most recent 5 day period.

Investing Ideas Newsletter      - z1

pandora: walking the plank

P gave itself some breathing room, but likely not enough. More importantly, the much bigger risks are approaching.

Investing Ideas Newsletter      - 9p


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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