At the risk of stating the obvious, what looks like (and acts like) a dove … is a dove (even if her collar is up!).
Three Fed testimony takeaways:
- Yellen put an end to the recent Bond Bear fear-mongering of removing the word “patient”
- Yellen was incrementally concerned (dovish) about inflation not achieving her “target”
- She’s now hostage to the “data”, which includes slowing CPI and GDP reports on Thursday/Friday
Then, of course, there’s the jobs report for FEB (reported next week). And I continue to think the 10yr yield is one bad jobs report away from re-testing the JAN 2015 lows.
If it’s a good jobs report, bond yields should bounce from wherever CPI and GDP reports take them in the meantime.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer