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At the risk of stating the obvious, what looks like (and acts like) a dove … is a dove (even if her collar is up!).

Three Fed testimony takeaways:

  1. Yellen put an end to the recent Bond Bear fear-mongering of removing the word “patient”
  2. Yellen was incrementally concerned (dovish) about inflation not achieving her “target”
  3. She’s now hostage to the “data”, which includes slowing CPI and GDP reports on Thursday/Friday

Then, of course, there’s the jobs report for FEB (reported next week). And I continue to think the 10yr yield is one bad jobs report away from re-testing the JAN 2015 lows.

If it’s a good jobs report, bond yields should bounce from wherever CPI and GDP reports take them in the meantime.

KM

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer