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Takeaway: The Year of the Goat is starting off baaaadly. Lowering Feb and 2015 forecast


The Macau stocks have worked against us the last few weeks; that is to say they’ve worked higher. However, February 2015 doesn’t just face a difficult comparison, trends are deteriorating and the month is set up to fall at least 50%, much worse than the consensus 30-35% decline projected before the month started. The latest weekly numbers were awful, a sequential decline despite the onset of the Chinese New Year celebration. With still deteriorating market conditions – March looks awful - and new risks emerging including a further restriction of Visa travel, the outlook for Macau stocks looks lower, possibly retesting 52 week lows.

Please see our detailed note: