CONF CALL OPENING REMARKS
- Q4 2014
- Led by Europe and US REVPAR (6.9%, 6.8%, respectively)
- Strong balanced growth in group and transient segment
- Drive leisure demand in non-peak periods
- Government grew 7%
- Transient grew 7%
- Americas/owned group segment: up mid single digits for 2015
- 50/50 (volume/rate) contribution
- Pace has been very strong - up 57% YoY in 1Q.
- Middle quarters doing well
- HLT as STR leader: global rooms under construction, pipeline size and system rooms
- HLT: REVPAR index premium of 15%
- HLT: Rooms under construction make up 19% of global share
- Americas: signed on average one deal/day
- 400 Hamptons in the pipeline. Will have hundreds of Hamptons in China
- Doubletree: doubled in size since 2007. REVPAR index increased over 700bps since 2007
- 2 new brands in 2014: Curio (5 hotels opened with 23 hotels in pipeline); Canopy (15 hotels in pipeline; expect to open 1st Canopy within the year)
- Waldorf sale 1030 exchange: screened for high-quality properties in urban/resort markets
- 2015
- >75% of Adjusted EBITDA comes from US. Some disruption from weather....sees mid-to-high single digit REVPAR growth in US (strength in San Francisco, Florida, Boston, Washington, offset by ongoing challenges in NY)
- Mid-single digit REVPAR growth in Europe; strong group business in Southern region. Russia pressuring Eastern Europe. France underperforming.
- Mid-to-high single digit REVPAR growth in Middle East
- China: 6-8% REVPAR growth. Overall Asia: high single digit REVPAR growth in 2015
- Effective franchise rates continue to increase: 4.65%
- Timeshare: Lower SG&A, higher transient rentals, and lower club charges
- Continue to transition to capital-light business
- 60% of sales from new timeshare intervals (different from competitors)
- Calendar shifts somewhat tempered growth in November
- Some markets saw group revenue increase 15-25%
- Hawaii Q4 REVPAR: 10%
- Strong transient business in DC
- Transient strength in Brazil and Argentina offset softness in Puerto Rico
- Europe: strong group business in UK and Rome
- China: weakness in Mainland group business
- Paid down $300m in term loans. Leverage ratio currently at: 4.2x
- Leverage target: 3-4x
- Will start returning capital to shareholders via dividend when they reach leverage goals
- Over 80% of adjusted EBITDA in US $
- Expect $35-45m FX impact on 2015 EBITDA guidance
- Remaining Waldorf money (~$100m): will purchase 1 or more US assets in next 6 months
Q & A
- 2015 Europe: continue to see strength in Western Europe/ some Southern Europe tempered by weakness in France and Eastern Europe
- FX impact: no impact on inbound business to US
- Will consider other options on returning capital to shareholders (i.e. stock buyback) but dividend likely first
- Lodging cycle: Demand is growing with historical low level of supply. US getting better, will drive strong transient results. Group is coming back.
- REIT spin-off: constantly looking at real estate to maximize value. Don't see 'meaningful arbitrage opportunity' at this moment.
- Timeshare: 80% is capital light. Have active loyal customers. Like their timeshare business.
- Most of development in US is in limited service and franchising
- China 2015 REVPAR: in Q4 2014, REVPAR was 3% due to hotel specific issues. For 2014, it was 6%. Expect similar growth in 2015. Starting to see F&B ease up a little bit (govt austerity). Seeing ancillary spend recover a little bit. Signed more deals in 2014 than 2013 (much more limited service).
- 2015 incentive fees (ex 1x items): high teens growth rate
- US incentive contribution rate: High 50s (moved from low 50s). Expect in 2015 to move to low 60s
- 2014: Lower-end outperformed upper-end by 100bps due to transient growth
- 2015: roughly equal growth rates in lower-end and upper-end (UUP and higher)
- New York EBITDA exposure: going from 8% to a little less than 5% after Waldorf sale
- Waldorf transaction/exchange: REVPAR growth rates will be high single digits higher, EBITDA will be double digits higher
- Finished at historic high in occupancy in 2014. Do not think it will be another high in occupancy in 2015.
- 6-7% HLT supply growth is even split between full service and limited service
- Probably no more arbitrage opportunities in the portfolio similar to Waldorf, unfortunately
- Would never say never on buying a brand but economics suggest organic growth the better option.
- 60% of Fx hit is to the fee business
- Corporate negotiations are becoming more of seller's market. Free WiFi not really related to that