Game of Chicken: SP500 Levels, Refreshed...

When I was a kid, I used to play this game of chicken. Today, with the Dollar testing its YTD lows, it feels like the SP500 is playing the same…


The USD Index is down -0.29% at $75.90. The 2009 YTD low is 13 cents away from that print. Can the Burning Buck mark a lower-low as the SP500 tries its best to climb above its YTD closing high? That’s the game of chicken that the REFLATON trade wants to play.


In October of 2007 I wasn’t brave enough to stay in it on the long side until the bitter end. Thank God for that. Today, the risk management setup is far from similar, but it is October, and them chilly mornings can wake you up like they did with selloffs like we saw today.


I have only bought and covered positions today (bought Utilities (XLU); covered Darden (DRI). Since my 1054 line held, however low beta my buys may be, I’m definitely a better buyer on today’s weakness. Until this Buck stops Burning, the math will force us to play this US government sponsored game of chicken…


Today’s intraday US stock market recovery puts my refreshed TRADE lines of immediate term support/resistance at 1054 (dotted green) and 1089 (dotted red). In the Virtual Portfolio I now have 20 longs and 9 shorts.



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Game of Chicken: SP500 Levels, Refreshed...  - chart1013


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more