Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment

Employment data re-hashing is pretty much ubiquitous across the financial media and there’s little value-add in dog-piling on the data reporting so we’ll keep it tight here.   


Immediately below is our summary review of the data followed by a few data points and trends we think are worth highlighting.  


January Employment | Summary Review:   Net Payrolls adds were strong on an absolute basis and accelerating on YoY basis, wage growth accelerated back up to +2.2%, hours worked held above trend, the positive balance of hiring at the sector/industry level continued, slack measure extended their slow march southward, revisions were unanimously positive and unemployment rose for the right reasons as participation bounced off multi-decade lows.  Manufacturing and Energy employment showed little evidence of ROW demand and Oil-price pressures, respectively.  


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - Employment Summary Table



HOUSING: Residential Construction employment rose +13K MoM, marking the largest sequential rise since November of 2005.  On a year-over-year basis, growth accelerated to +8.7% with the trend remaining one of ongoing improvement.  After having been bearish on housing in 2014 through October, we continue to think housing outperforms over the intermediate term in 2015.  (*Note:  if you do not currently receive our housing sector research but would like access please let us know.)


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - Resi Cons Employment


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - 20 34YOA ST


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - 20 34YOA LT


Consumption/Income Growth:  Today’s report augurs strength for the Consumption and Income/Spending data for January. 


The math is straightforward:   Accelerating employment base + an acceleration in wage growth will = accelerating aggregate income growth. 


Even if a further increase in the savings rate mutes the translation to actual consumption growth (as it did in December), it’s hard to characterize accelerating income growth and rising savings as fundamentally negative. 


Whether increased savings and rising corporate confidence actually translates into an acceleration in business investment – and a support to flagging productivity growth – remains a pretty big “if”, particularly as we traverse the late-cycle period of the current expansion. 


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - Salary   Wage Dec


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - Income   Spending Table


Energy Related Employment:  The BLS classifies oil & gas related employment within four major subsectors:  Oil and Gas Extraction, Oil & Gas Pipeline Construction, Support Activities for Oil & Gas Operation and Mining/Oil/Gas field Machinery.   The data is reported on a one month lag so the January release this morning provided December data for the respective industries. 


In short, payroll employment directly tied to Oil & Gas extraction, while slowing, has yet to show a conspicuous decline. 


We’ll be interest to see if that changes in the February report as the (more leading) initial jobless claims data continues to show a moderate negative divergence in energy state job separations.


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - Oil Industry Employment


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - Claims 020615


Cycle Accounting | Best Before the Crest:  It’s our view that we’re currently late-cycle in the current expansion.  Employment and wage growth always look best before the crest and handicapping where we are on the slope of the cycle line remains the game. 


With the incremental acceleration in employment growth in January, and inclusive of the 2014 revisions, we have now eclipsed the peak rate of payroll growth observed in the last cycle.  Whether January represented the trough in Initial Claims (3-mo rolling ave basis) remains to be seen but historical cycle precedents suggest the clock tick starts to get louder following a negative inflection off peak improvement in initial claims


 Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - Cycle Profile


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - NFP YoY


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - Claims cycle


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - NFP cycle


“Patience”:   The “tough March decision for the Fed” headlines are in full crescendo this morning.  For the sake of taking the other side of the strength in the employment report, the charts below are probably the ripest fodder for the “push out the dots” folks. 


Is an acceleration in wage inflation imminent as slack continues its slow march southward, minimum wage changes take effect and net payroll add mix shifts modestly in favor of higher paying jobs?  Perhaps, but that’s been the perennial panglossian talking point for at least the last 18 months.  Elsewhere, the employment-to- population ratio, while improving, continues to signal ongoing slack while labor’s share of income remains decidedly depressed as the transmission of policy from financial asset inflation (wall street) to the real Main St. economy remains doggedly slow.   


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - Emp to Pop Ration total LT


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - Labor Share Income


SLACK:  The painstakingly sluggish trend towards labor market tautness remains ongoing.  Below are the updated charts


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - Workers per job opening


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - ST unemployment


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - NFIB Hiring


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - NFIB Compensation


Rainbows & Puppy Dogs | January Employment - NFIB Hard to Fill



Christian B. Drake


Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more