LEISURE LETTER (02/04/2015)




  • Feb 10: 
    • IGT extraordinary shareholder meeting vote
    • HOT 4Q CC 10:30am
      • (1866) ; pw: 67514695
  • Feb 12: 
    • MPEL 4Q CC 8:30am
      • (1866) ; pw: MPEL
    • PNK 4Q CC 10:00am
      • ; pw: 68847867
    • BYD 4Q CC 5:00pm
      • ; pw: 5378350
  • Feb 17: MGM 4Q CC 11:00am
    • ; pw: 8870181
  • Feb 18: 
    • HYATT 4Q CC 11:30am
      • ; PW: 62845475
    • MAR 4Q release 5pm
  • Feb 19:
    • HST 4Q CC 9:00am
  • Feb 25: Prestige analyst day (9:00am-12pm)



    CCL - Carnival Vista will homeport in Miami. The move is part of an extended deal between Carnival Corp. and PortMiami that would require Carnival to sail Vista out of Miami for at least 24 months in the three years after the ship launches next year. The 3,954-passenger Carnival Vista will launch May 1, 2016. After a season of 18 sailings in Europe, the ship will embark on a 13-night transatlantic crossing October 21, 2016, arriving in New York City on November 3. 

    Article HERE

    Takeaway: As expected.

    HOT - Bahrain-based International Investment Bank (IIB) has announced that its mixed-use real estate development in Sarajevo has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Starwood Hotels and Resorts concerning the project's second tower, which would house a luxury five-star hotel. Sarajevo City Centre (SCC), which is based in Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is a partnership between IIB and Saudi-based business group Al Shiddi Group.

    Article HERE







    Jimei – The company says it is expanding its gambling junket business in Macau. Jimei told the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it had an agreement with New International Club Ltd to participate indirectly in the gaming promotion business in the city. New International Club is in negotiations with casino operator Wynn Macau Ltd about managing several VIP gaming rooms. The agreement will give Jimei all New International Club’s share of the revenue from these rooms in exchange for taking all the risk.

    Article HERE

    Takeaway: More VIP rooms coming for WYNN? 


    North America

    Alaska– The Alaska market may have found its perfect supply and demand scenario, as market capacity will remain flat year-over-year from 2014 to 2015 according to the 2015-2016 Cruise Industry News Annual Report. The market accounted for 900,000 passengers in 2014, and 2015 numbers remain the same, although still somewhat below a peak of 1 million passengers in 2008, before the infamous Alaska head tax drove 20 percent of the beds elsewhere.

    Article HERE


    New York - Again, NYC set a record for visitors, drawing 56.4 million of them in 2014. The total was a 3.9% increase over the 54.3 million visitors in 2013, which had been the all-time high for the city. The number of international visitors grew 7%, to 12.2 million. Domestic visitors totaled 44.2 million, a 3% increase. Also a city record: 32.4 million hotel room nights sold. The average daily rate was $295 and average hotel occupancy was 89% — both highs in the U.S. for 2014, said the city’s tourism organization, NYC & Company.

    Article HERE

    Takeaway: NYC was a hot spot for lodging in 2014 but Fx will be a hurdle in 2015?





    China PBOC announces system-wide reserve ratio cut by 50bp to 19.50%.  

    • Cut reserve ratio by additional 400 bps for agricultural development bank.
    • PBoC said it will continue to implement prudent monetary policy.
    • Maintain an appropriate degree of credit and social financing.

    Takeaway:  Largely expected by the market. Nevertheless, this is a positive for the VIP segment, on a 9-11 month lag.


    Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.

    Takeaway:  European pricing has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely in 2015.

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    Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

    We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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    Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

    "The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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    Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

    "Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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    People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

    PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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    UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

    “The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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    Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

    "Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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    Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

    "The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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    An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

    "Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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    Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

    Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

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    REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

    Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

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    Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

    Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

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