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Takeaway: The quarter was bad across the board with January offering a sliver of Mass hope.


It’s not all bad for WYNN. Yes, Q4 was all bad but Wynn’s Mass business started the Western New Year off with a bang.  Sure, hold was likely high and the Mass comparison will be the easiest until October. But at least we didn’t have to lower Q2015 estimates, although we were below the Street already.

So where do we go from here? As everyone knows, the February comp is +40% and we think February 2015 could fall 32-36% YoY. Wynn’s recent efforts in attracting new high end Mass players should continue to bear Q1 fruit on a relative basis but is that enough? Relative to expectations, March could be the real disappointment.  Unless trends rebound, we think the market could fall 25-30% YoY in March which could surprise people more than a 34% decline in February. 

And what about Vegas? Two companies have had disappointing YoY declines in EBITDA in that supposedly rebounding market, but Vegas means more to WYNN than LVS.  Our contention has been that Las Vegas gaming revenues are not actually rebounding – flattish is status quo – and RevPAR, while positive, still trails the rest of the country.  What’s all the excitement about?

Please see our detailed note: