Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.
Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.
Takeaway: In today's Macro Playbook, we detail our decision to add crude oil to our list of top short ideas, in lieu of the Japanese yen (FXY).
THEMATIC INVESTMENT CONCLUSIONS
Long Ideas/Overweight Recommendations
Short Ideas/Underweight Recommendations
QUANT SIGNALS & RESEARCH CONTEXT
Highlighting the Shortable Bear Market Bounce in Oil: Today we are adding the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return ETN (OIL) to our top five global macro short ideas, replacing the Japanese yen (FXY) which should remain range bound for at least two more months.
Recall that the securities highlighted above represent our intermediate-term investment recommendations based on our active macro themes, which themselves stem from our proprietary four-quadrant Growth/Inflation/Policy (GIP) framework.
GIP Model Backtest Results (which form the basis of our long/short biases that are ultimately confirmed/disconfirmed by the market):
***It’s worth restating that we wouldn’t necessarily be long or short each of these securities at every price; our Real-Time Alerts platform best summarizes our conviction (or lack thereof) in each idea in the most immediate of terms.***
The purpose of refreshing and reviewing our list of thematic investment conclusions on a daily basis is to communicate our investment biases to those of you who are less transactional – either because of size constraints in the process of getting in/out of positions OR because of the higher costs associated with a higher frequency of transactions. Ideally, one would only be long securities on the days they go up in price and short those securities on the days they go down in price, but that’s obviously easier said than done – especially in the context of institutional mandates to remain fully invested.
Moving along, we still see downside in the price of crude oil over the intermediate term and our core quantitative screens support that investment conclusion:
#Quad4 continues to get priced into the preponderance of global financial markets on a trending basis, so until that changes, we will remain generally bearish on commodities (sans gold) – crude oil in particular. While well off the highs, the net speculative length of +324k contacts remains the largest net long position in the history of the futures and options markets.
All told, while not nearly as crowded as it once was, crude oil remains a crowded long and we would avoid “bottom fishing” in this asset class until you can connect the dots on a material pullback in the U.S. dollar beyond the immediate-term.
***CLICK HERE to download the full TACRM presentation.***
TRACKING OUR ACTIVE MACRO THEMES
Global #Deflation: Amidst a backdrop of secular stagnation across developed economies, we continue to think cyclical forces (namely #StrongDollar driven commodity price deflation) will drag down reported inflation readings globally over the intermediate term. That is likely to weigh heavily upon long-term interest rates in the developed world, underpinning our bullish outlook for U.S. Treasury bonds.
The Hedgeye Macro Playbook (1/29)
#Quad414: After DEC and Q4 (2014) data slows, in Q1 of 2015 we think growth in the US is likely to accelerate from 4Q, aided by base effects and a broad-based pickup in real discretionary income. We do not, however, think such a pickup is sustainable, as we foresee another #Quad4 setup for the 2nd quarter. Risk managing these turns at the sector and style factor level will be the key to generating alpha in the U.S. equity market in 1H15.
Long #Housing?: The collective impact of rising rates, severe weather, waning investor interest, decelerating HPI, and tighter credit capsized housing in 2014. 2015 is setting up as the obverse with demand improving, the credit box opening and 2nd derivative price and volume trends beginning to inflect positively against progressively easier comps. We'll review the current dynamics and discuss whether the stage is set for a transition from under to outperformance for the complex.
EARLY LOOK: USA Inc. (1/30)
Best of luck out there,
Associate: Macro Team
About the Hedgeye Macro Playbook
The Hedgeye Macro Playbook aspires to present investors with the robust quantitative signals, well-researched investment themes and actionable ETF recommendations required to dynamically allocate assets and front-run regime changes across global financial markets. The securities highlighted above represent our top ten investment recommendations based on our active macro themes, which themselves stem from our proprietary four-quadrant Growth/Inflation/Policy (GIP) framework. The securities are ranked according to our calculus of the immediate-term risk/reward of going long or short at the prior closing price, which itself is based on our proprietary analysis of price, volume and volatility trends. Effectively, it is a dynamic ranking of the order in which we’d buy or sell the securities today – keeping in mind that we have equal conviction in each security from an intermediate-term absolute return perspective.
Takeaway: ICSC disappoints against easiest compare in years. After departing Canada, TGT store plan faces the original challenge of driving US growth.
EVENTS TO WATCH
ICSC RETAIL SALES (80 General Merchandise Stores)
Takeaway: We expected a number far better than +3.7% this week given that it went against a weather-impacted week in 2014 that was the worst in 4-years. Despite the apparent strength, the 2-year trend actually decelerated by 50 bps for the week. The 3-year trend -- which eliminates all the noise -- actually decelerated in all but one week year-to-date.
TGT- Target Announces Store Growth Plans for 2015
Takeaway: Every time we talk about TGT we have to put our accountability pants on. In the Black Book we put together in April of last year our research indicated that the company would never make money in Canada and would print $3.2bil in revenue in 2017, 40% below consensus. But we can't ignore what the stock has done since that point - which we can translate pretty easily in to 'We were wrong'. But, this announcement by the company glitzed and glammed by the PR department reminds us what TGT is working with in the US. The 15 openings equate to 0.4% sq. ft. growth in the US and -6% for the consolidated company if we include the discontinued Canada operations (it also ignored closed stores, which could be very well North of 15). As misguided as Steinhafel was in moving to Canada for growth, we have to ask what challenged internal growth forecast led TGT North of the border in the first place? It went from having a peer group where it had a notable competitive advantage, to putting itself right in the middle of four unique competitors – 1) WalMart, 2) Department Stores, 3) Dollar Stores, and 4) Supermarkets. As a bonus, it has Amazon.com hovering over its head plucking away every last sales dollar it can. We get the 'easy comp through 2Q' argument, but for a business trading at 17x earnings and 8x EBITDA on 2015 numbers that is stuck in the competitive set its built for itself, we think it's one of the most expensive names in retail today.
AMZN - Amazon in Talks to Buy Some of RadioShack's Stores
SPLS, ODP - Staples, Office Depot in Advanced Talks to Merge
TGT, WMT, GNC, WBA - Retailers Receive Cease and Desist Orders Over Herbal Supplements
RSH - NYSE Moves to Delist RadioShack
AMZN - Report: Amazon pilots e-commerce sites with universities
Topshop Reportedly Closes Japan Stores
TJX - The TJX Companies, Inc. Elects William H. Swanson to Board of Directors
LE - Lands' End names new CEO
ICON - Iconix Acquires Athletic Brand PONY In North America
ICON - Iconix Announces Definitive Agreement To Acquire Strawberry Shortcake Brand
LOW - Lowe's Names James H. Morgan To Board Of Directors
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It didn’t take much to get the machines to chase a reversal of what was an epic 6 month inverse correlation move between the USD and Oil. It’s all about rate of change, and the USD arresting its ascent was evidently enough – now it gets whippier.
The USD Index trades down, but only to the middle of its 93.41-95.82 risk range, but WTI bounces right to the top-end of its 42.84-51.31 range, so we like shorting Oil right here more than shorting U.S. Dollars, but we would keep moving.
Greek stocks go from -13% at the end of last week to -2% year-to-date now, so we guess everything is fine again? While it’s having no economic results (Italy just printed a new low #deflation print of -0.6% year-over-year CPI for JAN), the performance divergence between DAX +11.2% vs SPX -1.8% year-to-date is eye popping – maybe U.S. stocks really do need another QE to compete!
|FIXED INCOME||30%||INTL CURRENCIES||4%|
The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). As our declining rates thesis proved out and picked up steam over the course of the year, we see this trend continuing into Q1. Short of a Fed rate hike, there’s no force out there with the oomph to reverse this trend, particularly with global growth decelerating and disinflationary trends pushing capital flows into the one remaining unbreakable piggy bank, which is the U.S. Treasury debt market.
As growth and inflation expectations continue to slow, stay with low-volatility Long Bonds (TLT). We believe the TLT has plenty of room to run. We strongly believe the dynamics in the currency market are likely contribute to a “reflexive deflationary spiral” whereby continued global macro asset price deflation and reported disinflation both contribute to rising investor demand for long-term Treasuries, at the margins.
Hologic (HOLX) is a name our Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin has been closing monitoring for awhile. In what Tom calls his 3D TOMO Tracker Update (Institutional Research product) of U.S. facilities currently offering 3D Tomosynthesis, month-to-date December placements signaled a break-out quarter after a sharp acceleration in October and slight correction to a still very high rate in November. We believe we are seeing a sustained acceleration in placements that will likely drive upside to Breast Health throughout FY2015. Tom’s estimates are materially ahead of the Street, but importantly this upward trend in Breast Health should lead not only to earnings upside, but also multiple expansion and a significant move in the stock price.
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Editor's note: This is a brief excerpt from today's Morning Newsletter written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
But you already know that since the flexible and prepared player knows this USD correlation matrix is dominating:
In other words, if you got the rate of change in the USD right, you’ve gotten both the commodities and Oil crash right. Oh, and you played the counter-TREND reversal beautifully too!