Hedgeye's early and non-consensus call to be long the long bond has kept investors grinning.
In the Q&A segment of today's Morning Macro Call for institutional investors, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough reveals how the Fed has tipped their hand courtesy of WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath, discusses his expectations ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, and reminds us what would happen should interest rates rise.
In this excerpt from today's Morning Macro Call for institutional subscribers, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough talks Greece's "fascinating" weekend developments and the effects of oil's continuing tumble.
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Editor's note: This is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye research this morning. Click here to learn more and become a subscriber.
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The #1 read-through from Mario Draghi's move last week?
More (not less) #deflation.
There are a lot of ways to play this... but pressing the short side of WTI Oil is obviously one of them.
Oil is down again this morning (after a -7.2% down week) to $44.95. It has no support to lower-lows. Meanwhile, there’s still a massive net LONG position of +324,642 futures/options contracts in crude.
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Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.
Hedgeye’s Macro Team is pleased to continue our special “Behind the Curtain” conference call series to discuss Russia’s Crash with Russia authority Anders Åslund TOMORROW, Tuesday, January 27th at 11:00am EST.
Åslund is one of the world’s foremost experts on Russia and the Peterson Institute authority on economic policy of Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe.
Åslund is currently calling for Russia’s GDP to plunge -10% this year on sanctions, falling oil prices, and poor structural economic policy.
Similar to our previous speaker, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, Åslund brings on the ground experience across multiple Russian regimes to offer broader context on Putin’s Russia.
Specifically, Åslund served as an economic adviser to Russian President Boris Yeltsin in 1991-94 and to Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma in 1994-97, followed by key economic advisory positions to the Baltic states and Kyrgyzstan.
Åslund will provide 30 minutes of prepared remarks, followed by open Q&A moderated by Hedgeye’s analyst Matt Hedrick.
KEY TOPICS ON THE CALL WILL INCLUDE
- Forecasted view of the Russian economic environment
- Assessment of the decline of the Russian Ruble and 2015 outlook
- How falling energy prices will impact the Russian government and budget specifically
- Discussion of the current and forecasted state of sanctions against Russia and assessment of their impact
- Russia’s involvement in Ukraine: War or Resolve?
- Toll Free Number:
- Direct Dial Number:
- Conference Code: 275897#
- Materials: http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/01/15/russias-output-will-slump-sharply-in-2015/
ABOUT ANDERS ÅSLUND
Anders Åslund has been a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute since 2006. He is also an adjunct professor at Georgetown University. He examines the economic policy of Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe, as well as focuses on the broader implications of economic transition. He worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace from 1994 to 2005, first as a senior associate and then from 2003 as director of the Russian and Eurasian Program. He also worked at the Brookings Institution and the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies. He earned his doctorate from Oxford University.
Åslund served as an economic adviser to the governments of Russia in 1991–94 and Ukraine in 1994–97. He was a professor at the Stockholm School of Economics and the founding director of the Stockholm Institute of East European Economics. He has worked as a Swedish diplomat in Kuwait, Poland, Geneva, and Moscow. He is a member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and an honorary professor of the Kyrgyz National University. He is chairman of the Advisory Council of the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), Warsaw, and of the Scientific Council of the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT).
He is author or coauthor of 13 books, including How Capitalism Was Built: The Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia (Cambridge University Press, 2007 and 2013), The United States Should Establish Permanent Normal Trade Relations with Russia (2012), How Latvia Came through the Financial Crisis (2011), The Last Shall Be the First: The East European Financial Crisis (2010), The Russia Balance Sheet (2009),How Ukraine Became a Market Economy and Democracy (2009), Russia's Capitalist Revolution: Why Market Reform Succeeded and Democracy Failed (2007), Building Capitalism: The Transformation of the Former Soviet Bloc (Cambridge University Press, 2002), How Russia Became a Market Economy (Brookings, 1995), Gorbachev's Struggle for Economic Reform, 2d ed. (Cornell University Press, 1991), and Private Enterprise in Eastern Europe (Macmillan, 1985). He is also editor or coeditor of 16 books, including The Great Rebirth: Lessons from the Victory of Capitalism over Communism (2014), Russia after the Global Economic Crisis (2010), Challenges of Globalization: Macroeconomic Imbalances and Development Models (2008), Europe after Enlargement (Cambridge University Press, 2007), and Revolution in Orange(Carnegie Endowment, 2006).
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.68%