Editor's note: This is a brief excerpt from today's Morning Newsletter written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
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As you know, you can make a ton of money on the long side of asset prices tied to both A) Policies to Inflate (not to be confused with real economic growth – see 2011 for details) and B) #GrowthSlowing (buy Long Duration Bonds!). #TLT
What’s much more damning to asset prices than the rate of change in growth slowing is the rate of change in inflation #crashing. That’s mainly because asset #bubbles that were perpetuated by easy money Policies to Inflate get crushed by #deflation.
In hindsight, the #deflation risks to certain asset prices have been crystal clear:
- Commodities (CRB Commodities Index = 219, new lows, -30% since June 2014)
- Debt – and I mean high yield and junk bonds tied to cash flow streams that have implied inflation expectations
That’s why big debtor nations (and the companies who thrive on leverage to inflation in selling prices) try to avoid #deflation like the bubonic plague. #Deflation hammers debtors.