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Takeaway: Hedgeye Retail Black Books-FL (1/22) & HIBB (1/26). Ideas List. JCP brings catalog back from the dead. BONT Holiday. COH new marketing push.

We're releasing a Black Book this Thursday the 22nd to review our Short Call on Foot Locker, and then will follow up with another Book on Hibbett on Monday the 26th. Our 90-page Athletic Black Book we released last month was very heavy on industry trends and themes -- while these will be almost entirely focused on picking apart company financials and debunking the bull cases.


Retail Callouts (1/20): Black Books, Idea List, JCP Catalog, BONT, COH - 1 20 chart1B


JCP - J.C. Penney Resurrects Its Catalog


Takeaway: By this logic Blockbuster should have gone back to VHS to offset the declining rental market brought on by streaming content. Maybe that's an unfair analogy, but we have a hard time seeing how a 120-page Home catalog moves the needle in a meaningful way for JCP. When the company shuttered its catalog business 5 years ago - the average age of the consumer who actually used the catalog to make purchases was approaching 70 years old -- yes, that's actually true. While not a big investment this time around, we can't help but think that the money could be better spent improving JCP's dot.com presence.  The company's got a pretty big hole from which to climb. From 2005-13, JCP DTC sales were flat compared to KSS and M at 39% and 32% respectively.

BONT - Reports a 5.3% Comparable Store Increase in Holiday Sales


Takeaway: This is the first retailer we've seen during the January preannouncement schedule who meaningfully surprised to the upside on comp but took down guidance because of margin pressure due to the 'highly promotional retail environment'. Most retailers ignored the margin topic all together. But, our sense is that BONT won't be the last retailer to take it on the chin with margins when 4Q numbers are reported.

COH - Coach Taps Chloë Grace Moretz and Kid Cudi


Takeaway: This is a smart move by Coach (it's so rare that we say that). Moretz is extremely relevant to the teen crowd -- an audience that Coach lost long ago. And unlike high profile sponsorships like Taylor Swift/Keds (WWW) the financial risk here for Coach is likely de minimis. 

Retail Callouts (1/20): Black Books, Idea List, JCP Catalog, BONT, COH - 1 20 chart2


HD - The Home Depot Names Craig Menear Chairman




Cisco Security Poll: Companies Have False Confidence


AMZN - Amazon to Produce Original Feature-Length Movies for Theaters


Gucci Said to Have Appointed Alessandro Michele as Creative Head