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Takeaway: A rash of estimate cuts has the Street closer to us. But every day we lose more confidence in our numbers.


Street estimates are being lowered but there is no evidence that “the bottom is in”. Relief rally following earnings notwithstanding, significant risks remain and further downside to estimates is likely. As a Macau pure play and with the cheapest valuation, MPEL looks like the best long trade into earnings to benefit from another relief rally. Our Q4 EBITDA estimate exceeds the Street. On the other hand, WYNN may post the biggest miss in Q4 and looks to be the most at risk in 2015 as well.

Please see our detailed note: http://docs.hedgeye.com/HE_Macau_1.13.15.pdf