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The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.88% now. It started the year at 2.17%. And yet, Old Wall consensus is still saying it’s going to 3.06% by year end?
Significantly, the non-commercial net SHORT position in futures/options contracts (CFTC data) is as big as it’s been in six months at -250,163. Meanwhile, consensus is long SPX Index and Emini contracts on the other side of that!
Please. Whatever you do. Don’t be consensus.
Our most important macro call remains: Global #GrowthSlowing + #Deflation = Long The Long Bond