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Editor's note: This is a brief excerpt from our morning research. For more information on becoming a subscriber click here.

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The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.88% now. It started the year at 2.17%. And yet, Old Wall consensus is still saying it’s going to 3.06% by year end?

Significantly, the non-commercial net SHORT position in futures/options contracts (CFTC data) is as big as it’s been in six months at -250,163. Meanwhile, consensus is long SPX Index and Emini contracts on the other side of that!

Don’t Be a Macro Meatball: Resist Your Inner Consensus Urges - mball

Please. Whatever you do. Don’t be consensus.

Our most important macro call remains: Global #GrowthSlowing + #Deflation = Long The Long Bond