This note was originally published at 8am on December 11, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.
“Each time the system is recalculated, the posterior becomes the prior.”
-Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
Simple is as simple does, within a non-linear and dynamic system like the Global Macro market, that is…
“Conceptually, Bayes’ system was simple. We modify our opinions with objective information. Initial Beliefs (our guess where the cue ball landed) + Recent Objective Data (most recent ball left or right of the prior) = A New and Improved Belief.”
What do you believe? Is what you believed in late September consistent with what you believe after the October and December corrections? How about from January to June (when late-cycle inflation was accelerating) vs. today’s global #deflation? The best way to manage risk is by constantly recalculating your system.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
What does the system say this morning?
With the Russell 2000 down YTD and both inflation expectations and 10yr bond yields #crashing, initial 2014 consensus beliefs of worldwide growth accelerating and rates rising are no longer believed.
Since so many Old Wall dudes still use the “Dow” as some sort of proxy for the global economy, here’s what the broader global equity system is saying:
1. Weimar Nikkei (Japan) only goes up when the economy is so bad that they need to hit the CTRL+Panic (print) button
2. The liquid side of the “China” trade (Hang Seng) continued to signal bearish TREND @Hedgeye overnight (-0.9%)
3. The former Global Growth “signal” (known as Dr. KOSPI in South Korea) -1.5% overnight to -4.7% YTD #bearish
4. The UK’s FTSE failed @Hedgeye TREND resistance and is back to DOWN for 2014 YTD
5. Germany’s DAX is holding on to TREND support of 9688 at +3.2% YTD
6. Greece, Portugal, and Russia continue to crash (down more than 20% respectively, YTD)
Oh, and Argentina dropped -14% in the last 2 trading days… but #NoWorries there – centrally planned currency devaluation has had fantastic economic results for the Argentines! Watch the LEGO movie this weekend with your kids – “everything is awesome.”
Yep, everything other than this other Big Macro thing that is correlating with #CommoditiesCrashing called 10yr Bond Yields:
1. Japan 10yr = 0.40%
2. Germany = 0.67%
3. France = 0.94%
“So” I guess my growth-and-inflation-slowing bull case for the USA Long Bond (TLT) with the US 10yr Treasury Yield crashing (-28% YTD) to 2.16% has plenty of room to run.
The only thing that is awesome (i.e. you don’t have to make things up about global growth accelerating and #deflation not being a globally interconnected risk) is actually being long something, in size, with very low-volatility (Long-Term Treasuries).
One of our hard core customers called it “TLT tizzling” at our Hedgeye NYC Holiday Party on Tuesday… so I looked that up in the Urban Dictionary: “A fat party. This word is derived from the word partizzle, shortened to tizzle…”
Yes, it’s ok to laugh at this game. If you don’t, it might just make you cry. And so will what’s most causal to the pain you are seeing in inflation expectations globally right now – central planners losing Mr. Macro Market’s confidence that they can re-flate asset prices.
In case you didn’t know, that’s how this central planning game of expectations ends – in #deflation.
It’s one thing to run around telling yourself that the Dow and DAX are up because you just knew that markets can’t go down. It’s entirely another to be doing that over and over again when the global macro system starts to signal that the party’s music is stopping.
Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges (with intermediate-term TREND views in brackets, which you can find in our Daily Trading Range product) are as follows:
UST 10yr Yield 2.14-2.24% (bearish)
SPX 2018-2042 (bullish)
RUT 1151-1172 (bearish)
KOSPI 1901-1965 (bearish)
VIX 14.43-19.59 (bullish)
USD 87.67-88.79 (bullish)
EUR/USD 1.22-1.25 (bearish)
Yen 116.79-121.65 (bearish)
Oil (WTI) 60.48-65.38 (bearish)
NatGas 3.49-3.81 (bearish)
Gold 1205-1242 (neutral)
Copper 2.84-2.95 (bearish)
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
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Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.
Client Talking Points
We have been signaling the probability of the Japanese stock market to go up. Yen down = Japanese equities up. Japanese equities signaled immediate term trade over bought up, Weimar Nikkei (which we have people long of) up another +1.2% last night to +11.2% year-to-date. Yen is testing the low end of the immediate term risk range.
You saw the bounce in oil yesterday and then it fails to show follow through (again). WTI oil is down -1.5% to $56.25, the risk range immediate term risk range is 52.87 to 59.23. Look at oil as the epicenter of the risk of deflation.
The immediate term risk range on the VIX (volatility index) is wacky wide at 13.17 to 24.35. At the low end of the range you sell and at the high end of the range you buy. The II Bull/Bear Spread is +3770 basis points to the Bull side - not an all-time high, but close. People just believe they can’t make fundamentally make money on the short side, that’s not true because we have.
|FIXED INCOME||30%||INTL CURRENCIES||7%|
Top Long Ideas
The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). U.S. real GDP growth is unlikely to come in anywhere in the area code of consensus projections of 3-plus percent. And it is becoming clear to us that market participants are interpreting the Fed’s dovish shift as signaling cause for concern with respect to the growth outlook. We remain on other side of Consensus Macro positions (bearish on Oil, bullish on Treasuries, bearish on SPX) and still have high conviction in our biggest macro call of 2014 - that U.S. growth would slow and bond yields fall in kind.
We continue to think long-term interest rates are headed in the direction of both reported growth and growth expectations – i.e. lower. In light of that, we encourage you to remain long of the long bond. The performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities should continue to widen over the next two to three months. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove. We certainly hope you had the Long Bond (TLT) on versus the Russell 2000 (short side) as the performance divergence in being long #GrowthSlowing hit its widest for 2014 YTD (ex-reinvesting interest).
The U.S. is in Quad #4 on our GIP (Growth/Inflation/Policy) model, which suggests that both economic growth and reported inflation are slowing domestically. As far as the eye can see in a falling interest rate environment, we think you should increase your exposure to slow-growth, yield-chasing trade and remain long of defensive assets like long-term treasuries and Consumer Staples (XLP) – which work decidedly better than Utilities in Quad #4. Consumer Staples is as good as any place to hide as the world clamors for low-beta-big-cap-liquidity.
Three for the Road
TWEET OF THE DAY
Serious Lack of Momentum in the Momentum Stocks | $GPRO $LOCO https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/41390-mccullough-serious-lack-of-momentum-in-the-momentum-stocks-gpro-l … via @hedgeye
QUOTE OF THE DAY
The Revolution transformed science from a popular hobby into a full-fledged profession.
-Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
STAT OF THE DAY
Keurig Green Mountain has announced a recall affecting roughly 7 million of its K10 Mini Plus Brewing Systems manufactured between 2009 and 2014.
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