Key Points
- Casual Dining, Family Dining, Fine Dining, and Sandwich two-year comps are expected to accelerate throughout 2015.
- Coffee, Fast Casual, and Pizza two-year comps are expected to decelerate throughout 2015.
- Comp estimates, in aggregate, appear aggressive perhaps driven by recent encouraging reports from Black Box and Knapp as well as declining gasoline prices.
- For this reason, we believe we are well-positioned to identity several opportunistic shorts next year.
Casual Dining Consensus SSS Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)
- Casual Dining two-year accelerating 100 bps to 1.7%
- BJRI two-year accelerating 200 bps to 1.1%
- BLMN two-year accelerating 30 bps to 1.8%
- BBRG two-year accelerating 240 bps to -2.8%
- BWLD two-year decelerating 60 bps to 4.5%
- CAKE two-year accelerating 35 bps to 1.7%
- CHUY two-year decelerating 50 bps to 2.6%
- DIN (Applebee’s) two-year accelerating 60 bps to 1.3%
- DIN (IHOP) two-year decelerating 95 bps to 2.1%
- DRI two-year accelerating 230 bps to 1.6%
- EAT two-year accelerating 160 bps to 2.0%
- IRG accelerating 225 bps to -0.1%
- KONA two-year decelerating 5 bps to 2.6%
- RRGB two-year decelerating 65 bps to 2.7%
- RT two-year accelerating 660 bps to 1.5%
- TXRH two-year accelerating 55 bps to 4.9%
Coffee Consensus SSS Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)
- Coffee two-year decelerating 156 bps to 3.4%
- DNKN two-year decelerating 130 bps to 1.9%
- KKD two-year decelerating 60 bps to 2.9%
- SBUX two-year decelerating 95 bps to 5.1%
Family Dining Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)
- Family Dining two-year accelerating 78 bps to 2.1%
- BOBE two-year accelerating 225 bps to 1.3%
- CBRL two-year decelerating 20 bps to 2.9%
- DENN two-year accelerating 30 bps to 2.1%
Fast Casual Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)
- Fast Casual two-year decelerating 52 bps to 4.3%
- CMG two-year decelerating 230 bps to 10.7%
- FRGI (Pollo Tropical) two-year decelerating 160 bps to 4.6%
- FRGI (Taco Cabana) two-year accelerating 55 bps to 3.2%
- NDLS two-year accelerating 20 bps to 2.1%
- PBPB two-year accelerating 30 bps to 1.8%
- PNRA two-year accelerating 130 bps to 2.7%
- ZOES two-year decelerating 210 bps to 4.7%
Fine Dining Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)
- Fine Dining two-year accelerating 52 bps to 1.9%
- DFRG two-year accelerating 75 bps to 2.5%
- RUTH two-year decelerating 105 bps to 3.5%
Pizza Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)
- Pizza two-year decelerating 173 bps to 3.9%
- DPZ two-year decelerating 160 bps to 5.0%
- PZZA two-year decelerating 185 bps to 2.8%
Sandwich Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)
- Sandwich two-year accelerating 44 bps to 2.6%
- BKW two-year accelerating 55 bps to 2.2%
- JACK (JIB) two-year accelerating 120 bps to 2.1%
- JACK (Qdoba) two-year accelerating 155 bps to 6.4%
- MCD two-year accelerating 145 bps to 0.3%
- PLKI two-year decelerating 230 bps to 3.9%
- SONC two-year decelerating 220 bps to 3.1%
- WEN two-year decelerating 15 bps to 1.8%
- YUM two-year accelerating 340 bps to 1.4%
Howard Penney
Managing Director
Fred Masotta
Analyst
