Will The Fed Centrally Plan a Bounce?

Client Talking Points

YEN

We re-entered the dark side with a SELL signal on green yesterday (see Real Time Alerts product) and, barring Janet going completely dovish today, we think there’s immediate-term downside (vs. USD) in Burning Yens to $121.78; that would be good for the Nikkei, which held @Hedgeye TREND support of 16,441 overnight.

OIL

Oil saw another bounce (yesterday)… and another selloff this morning (-1.8% WTI to 54.93 with no support to 52.83) – this is what we call pervasive #deflation expectations being baked into one of the most epic perpetual inflation expectations in world history. Respect its longer-term ramifications.

UST 10YR

The UST 10YR Yield touched 2.03% yesterday, then bounced to 2.10% and that puts is right in the middle of our 2.03-2.19% immediate-term risk range ahead of the Fed. We have no idea what these people are going to do, but if they did remove “considerable time” and the Long Bond got hit on that, we would buy more of our best Macro Long Idea (TLT).

Asset Allocation

CASH 61% US EQUITIES 3%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 30% INTL CURRENCIES 6%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
EDV

The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). U.S. real GDP growth is unlikely to come in anywhere in the area code of consensus projections of 3-plus percent. And it is becoming clear to us that market participants are interpreting the Fed’s dovish shift as signaling cause for concern with respect to the growth outlook. We remain on other side of Consensus Macro positions (bearish on Oil, bullish on Treasuries, bearish on SPX) and still have high conviction in our biggest macro call of 2014 - that U.S. growth would slow and bond yields fall in kind.

TLT

We continue to think long-term interest rates are headed in the direction of both reported growth and growth expectations – i.e. lower. In light of that, we encourage you to remain long of the long bond. The performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities should continue to widen over the next two to three months. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove. We certainly hope you had the Long Bond (TLT) on versus the Russell 2000 (short side) as the performance divergence in being long #GrowthSlowing hit its widest for 2014 YTD (ex-reinvesting interest).

XLP

The U.S. is in Quad #4 on our GIP (Growth/Inflation/Policy) model, which suggests that both economic growth and reported inflation are slowing domestically. As far as the eye can see in a falling interest rate environment, we think you should increase your exposure to slow-growth, yield-chasing trade and remain long of defensive assets like long-term treasuries and Consumer Staples (XLP) – which work decidedly better than Utilities in Quad #4. Consumer Staples is as good as any place to hide as the world clamors for low-beta-big-cap-liquidity.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

RUSSIA: +5.3% on the "bounce" to -52.4% YTD (math: you'd have to be +108%, from here, to get back to breakeven) #crash

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Leadership and learning are indispensable to each other.

- John F. Kennedy

STAT OF THE DAY

The Russian Central bank has spent approximately $80-$100 Billion on FX interventions to strengthen the Ruble – but yet to no avail. The FX reserve is now at a 5 year low.


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