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Takeaway: Join us on a conference call today at 1pm to discuss our revised outlook for Japan and the associated investment implications.

The LDP/NKP coalition election victory this weekend has major implications for the global economy and the financial markets that underpin it.  

Please join the Hedgeye Macro Team on a conference call today at 1:00pm EST for an overview of these implications and how we think you should position your portfolio to profit from these macro catalysts.

 

KEY TOPICS WILL INCLUDE 

  • Where we stand vs. consensus RE: Abenomics
  • Our intermediate-term outlook for Japanese monetary and fiscal policy
  • The elevated risk of a global deflationary spiral

In summary, we anticipate ~20% downside in the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar over the NTM. This compares to -5% and unchanged, respectively, for the Bloomberg consensus EOY '15 forecast and the current 4Q15 USD/JPY forward rate.

A linear regression model based on the trailing 2Y correlation would suggest our forecast of a re-test of the August 1998 highs on the dollar-yen cross implies a level of ~25,300 on the Nikkei 225 Index – or potential upside of +48% from today's closing price! 

If these forecasts sound crazy to you, that's a good thing [to us]. We sounded equally as crazy making a similar call in November 2012 (i.e. before Abe even took office).

Call Today | Abenomics Round II: Risk Is GROSSLY Mispriced - Thinking Through a Potential Currency Crisis In Japan

DIAL-IN INSTRUCTIONS

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Toll Number:
  • Conference ID/Password: 13597789
  • Materials: CLICK HERE

As always, there will be a live Q&A session at the end of the call. Please email to submit a question to the queue.

We look forward to having you join us!

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team