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THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK

Takeaway: In today's Macro Playbook, we highlight the risk of a global deflationary spiral with the advent of LDP/NKP election victory in Japan.

INVESTMENT CONCLUSIONS

Long Ideas/Overweight Recommendations

  1. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP)
  2. Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)
  3. iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF (MUB)
  4. Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV)
  5. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Short Ideas/Underweight Recommendations

  1. iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
  2. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
  3. iShares MSCI European Monetary Union ETF (EZU)
  4. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)
  5. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP)

 

QUANT SIGNALS & RESEARCH CONTEXT

Abenomics Round II = Global Deflationary Spiral Risk: With the advent of the LDP/NKP coalition securing another supermajority in the lower house of Japanese parliament (the Diet) comes risk of another gap higher in the USD/JPY cross and another leg down in commodity prices.

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - LDP   NKP Coalition

 

Specifically, we think Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe will use the renewed four-year mandate to push forward this “Abenomics” agenda, which calls for a combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary easing in pursuit of “+5% monetary math” – an extremely aggressive economic goal in the context of Japan’s structural economic trends:

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - FIVE PERCENT MONETARY MATH

 

As we outlined in our 11/19 note titled, “JAPAN: DOES THE "ABENOMICS TRADE" HAVE MORE ROOM TO RUN?”, we think the trend in Japanese growth and inflation data along with the GPIF reallocation will force the BoJ to further expand its QQE program over the intermediate term. On balance, that should be bearish for the Japanese yen in the context of consensus expectations for monetary tightening in the U.S. over that same duration.

 

To the extent the U.S. dollar starts to price in this incrementally bearish outlook for the Japanese yen, our multi-duration correlation study implies further downside in commodity prices:

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - DXY vs. CRB Indices

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - DXY vs. Brent Crude Oil

 

As we’ve reiterated in recent editions of the Macro Playbook, that portends an incrementally dour outlook for energy equities and high-yield energy bonds, as well as for emerging market equities, currencies and debt. To the extent we’re right on our outlook for the USD/JPY cross, buy-side consensus is not in the area code of being Bearish Enough on either of these asset classes; nor are they Bullish Enough on Japanese equities.

 

 

Looking to our Tactical Asset Class Rotation Model (TACRM), currently 46% of the nearly 200 ETFs that comprise the model have a Volatility-Adjusted Multi-Duration Momentum Indicator (VAMDMI) reading less than -1x; that indicates a clear trend of negative VWAP momentum across three distinct durations. On a rolling 3M average basis, that figure is 39%, which is the highest ratio of bearishly trending macro markets since the week ended November 4th, 2011!

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - TACRM GMRS

 

#Quad4’s #StrongDollar asset price deflation continues…

 

***We will be hosting a conference call today at 1pm to discuss these evolving global macro risks. Please email to obtain access to the call and the associated slide deck.***

 

***CLICK HERE to download the full TACRM presentation.***

 

TRACKING OUR ACTIVE MACRO THEMES

#Quad4 (introduced 10/2/14): Our models are forecasting a continued slowing in the pace of domestic economic growth, as well as a further deceleration in inflation here in Q4. The confluence of these two events is likely to perpetuate a rise in volatility across asset classes as broad-based expectations for a robust economic recovery and tighter monetary policy are met with bearish data that is counter to the consensus narrative.

 

Early Look: U-G-L-Y (12/10)

 

#EuropeSlowing (introduced 10/2/14): Is ECB President Mario Draghi Europe's savior? Despite his ability to wield a QE fire hose, our view is that inflation via currency debasement does not produce sustainable economic growth. We believe select member states will struggle to implement appropriate structural reforms and fiscal management to induce real growth.

 

Draghi Drugs at the JAN ECB Meeting? Nope! (12/10)

 

#Bubbles (introduced 10/2/14): The current economic cycle is cresting and the confluence of policy-induced yield-chasing and late-cycle speculation is inflating spread risk across asset classes. The clock is ticking on the value proposition of the latest policy to inflate as the prices many investors are paying for financial assets is significantly higher than the value they are receiving in return.

 

#Bubbles: “Hedge Fund Hotel” Edition (Part II) (12/8)

 

Best of luck out there,

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team

 

About the Hedgeye Macro Playbook

The Hedgeye Macro Playbook aspires to present investors with the robust quantitative signals, well-researched investment themes and actionable ETF recommendations required to dynamically allocate assets and front-run regime changes across global financial markets.

 

The securities highlighted above represent our top ten investment recommendations based on our active macro themes, which themselves stem from our proprietary four-quadrant Growth/Inflation/Policy (GIP) framework. The securities are ranked according to our calculus of the immediate-term risk/reward of going long or short at the prior closing price, which itself is based on our proprietary analysis of price, volume and volatility trends.

 

Effectively, it is a dynamic ranking of the order in which we’d buy or sell the securities today – keeping in mind that we have equal conviction in each security from an intermediate-term absolute return perspective.


Japan, UST 10YR and Sentiment

Client Talking Points

JAPAN

Not surprisingly, Abe wins re-election – surprisingly, the Yen is Up (small) on that and the Weimar Nikkei drops -1.6%. The Yen (vs. USD is right in the middle of its 117.06-121.68 risk range) and the Nikkei are now bearish TRADE (Nikkei 17,769 resistance); bullish TREND (Nikkei 16,451 support); the rest of Asian Equities acted poorly, again – Thailand led losers -3.1%.

UST 10YR

After crashing to 2.08% on the close of last week, bounces to 2.12% this morning (immediate-term risk range is now 2.08-2.22%) and while we would love to see another big buying opportunity (if, say, the Fed removed the “considerable time” language), we don’t think we’re going to get that this week – Long Bond is still our favorite Macro LONG idea (TLT, EDV, etc.).

SENTIMENT

Hedge fund consensus remains as long of S&P 500 futures/options as it is bearish on long-term Treasuries. As of last week’s CFTC futures/options contracts data, there’s a +48,911 net LONG position in SPX (Index + Emini) vs. its 6 month average of a -21,000 net short position, and a 10YR Treasury net SHORT position at its year-to-date high of -214,778 contracts!

Asset Allocation

CASH 61% US EQUITIES 2%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 32% INTL CURRENCIES 5%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
EDV

The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). U.S. real GDP growth is unlikely to come in anywhere in the area code of consensus projections of 3-plus percent. And it is becoming clear to us that market participants are interpreting the Fed’s dovish shift as signaling cause for concern with respect to the growth outlook. We remain on other side of Consensus Macro positions (bearish on Oil, bullish on Treasuries, bearish on SPX) and still have high conviction in our biggest macro call of 2014 - that U.S. growth would slow and bond yields fall in kind.

TLT

We continue to think long-term interest rates are headed in the direction of both reported growth and growth expectations – i.e. lower. In light of that, we encourage you to remain long of the long bond. The performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities should continue to widen over the next two to three months. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove. We certainly hope you had the Long Bond (TLT) on versus the Russell 2000 (short side) as the performance divergence in being long #GrowthSlowing hit its widest for 2014 YTD (ex-reinvesting interest).

XLP

The U.S. is in Quad #4 on our GIP (Growth/Inflation/Policy) model, which suggests that both economic growth and reported inflation are slowing domestically. As far as the eye can see in a falling interest rate environment, we think you should increase your exposure to slow-growth, yield-chasing trade and remain long of defensive assets like long-term treasuries and Consumer Staples (XLP) – which work decidedly better than Utilities in Quad #4. Consumer Staples is as good as any place to hide as the world clamors for low-beta-big-cap-liquidity.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

You can ask @KeithMcCullough questions live on @HedgeyeTV at 830am ET. Watch here: http://youtu.be/vsuii37pyX0

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

There is nothing more genuine than breaking away from the chorus to learn the sound of your own voice.

-Po Bronson

STAT OF THE DAY

Latin American Equities moved closer to #crash mode, down -6% on the week to -16.1% year-to-date.


CHART OF THE DAY: Our Least Preferred Player on the 2014 Market Field vs Our Most Preferred

CHART OF THE DAY: Our Least Preferred Player on the 2014 Market Field vs Our Most Preferred - 12.15.14 chart

 

"After doing absolutely nothing for the 6 weeks prior, our least preferred 2014 player on the US Equity market field (Russell 2000), dropped -2.5% last week to -1.0% YTD ... [Meanwhile] UST 10yr Yield -22 basis points on the week to 2.08% (that’s a -31.3% crash in bond yields for 2014 YTD) ... Our favorite player, TLT (20yr Treasury Bond ETF) was up another +2.9% last week to +24% YTD."

 

This is an excerpt from today's Morning Newsletter by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.


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Money Man

"I can't hear you. There's too much money in my hand."

-Johnny Manziel

 

Whether former Texas A&M superstar Johnny Manziel said it that way (or with more expletives!) isn’t the point. If you’re a rookie and you’re going to give an entire profession the money signal like that, you better deliver on game day!

 

In what was an embarrassing professional start, Manziel did not deliver the moneys for Cleveland yesterday – and the Cincinnati Bengals veteran defense proceeded to spend the afternoon giving little Johnny some signals of their own.

 

Sort of like what the US Treasury Bond market did to the momentum chasing US equity bulls last week…

 

Money Man - man2

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

After doing absolutely nothing for the 6 weeks prior, our least preferred 2014 player on the US Equity market field (Russell 2000), dropped -2.5% last week to -1.0% YTD. With only 2.5 weeks left in the season, that is not a Money Man bull market!

 

What was interesting about the Russell #Bubble’s drop (topped 5% higher on July 7th, 2014) was that it actually outperformed the almighty navel gazer on the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Index lost 50% of its 2014 gains, closing -3.8% to +4.2% YTD.

 

All the while, Global Equities continued to look like Manziel:

 

1. European Equities (EuroStoxx600) dropped -5.8% on the week to +0.7% YTD

2. Emerging Market Equities (MSCI) #deflated another -4.0% wk-over-wk to -5.6%

3. Latin American Equities moved closer to #crash mode, -6% on the week to -16.1% YTD

 

I know, cheery picking more than a few interceptions to make the game replay tapes look bad isn’t such a nice thing to do during the holiday season – but, to be clear, unless you are long bonds, there hasn’t been much to celebrate in December.

 

Bonds?

 

Yep. As the Barron’s Top Strategist 2015 Outlook reiterates its consensus 2014 outlook (GDP accelerating and #RatesRising, which btw was our 2013 outlook), we reiterate both growth and inflation slowing (and lower bond yields).

 

As US Equity Volatility (front month VIX) rocketed +78.3% last week, the low-volatility ramp in the Long Bond continued:

 

1. UST 10yr Yield -22 basis points on the week to 2.08% (that’s a -31.3% crash in bond yields for 2014 YTD)

2. UST Yield Spreads compressed to YTD lows (-12bps wk-over-wk and -111bps YTD for the 10s/2s Spread)

 

For those of you who do Moneyball (or Moneypuck) stats, you’ll respect the reality that A) higher absolute and relative returns + B) lower-volatility in those returns, is where the real money in this game is at...

 

If you want to think about that in Dow, Russell, or SPY terms vs the Long Bond (TLT and EDV):

 

1. TLT (20yr Treasury Bond ETF) was up another +2.9% last week to +24% YTD

2. Vanguard’s Extended Duration ETF (EDV) was +3.9% week-over-week to +40.8% YTD

 

What’s driving this?

 

1. Falling growth expectations

2. Falling inflation expectations

 

And while there was a time (earlier this year) where the Old Wall said “bond yields are falling in Europe, not because growth and inflation are slowing, because its different this time”… it’s not.

 

In rate of change (Hedgeye) terms, when both growth and inflation are slowing, at the same time, the Long Bond investor gets paid.

 

No, this wasn’t a sexy call. And you won’t see me or my teammates living large on bottle service drinking the chartreuse (Zervos?) or hanging with Roubini either… but it remains the call Consensus Macro still isn’t willing to make.

 

On that sentiment score, check-out where CFTC (non-commercial) futures and options bets went last week:

 

1. SP500 (Index + Emini) = +48,911 net LONG position (vs. its 6mth avg of a -21,000 net short)

2. TREASURIES (10yr) = net SHORT position at its YTD high of -214,778 contracts (vs. its 6 mth avg of -38,000 net short)

 

Yep, I can hear you loud and clear. There’s too much consensus in that hand!

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.08-2.22%

SPX 1

RUT 1146-1165

VIX 15.47-22.71

YEN 117.06-121.68

WTI Oil 56.48-63.21

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough

Chief Executive Officer

 

Money Man - 12.15.14 chart

 


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 15, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 58 points or 1.12% downside to 1980 and 1.78% upside to 2038.                                                    

                                                                           

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.55 from 1.54
  • VIX closed at 21.08 1 day percent change of 4.98%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Dec., est. 12 (prior 10.16)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production m/m, Nov., est. 0.7% (pr -0.1%)
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Dec., est. 59 (prior 58)
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 4W bills
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $24b 3M bills, $26b 6M bills
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, Oct. (prior $164.3b)

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Acting Deputy Sec. of State Wendy Sherman and U.S. negotiating team to meet with Iranian officials ahead of talks with world powers on Iran’s nuclear program
    • 10am: Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, joins Financial Services Roundtable discussion on “Retiring Around the Globe";

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • PetSmart Agrees to Be Bought by BC Partners Group for $83-Share
  • Oil Trades Near 5-Year Low as OPEC Seen Resisting Cuts at $40
  • Senate Passes U.S. Funding Bill After Cruz Challenge Rejected
  • JPMorgan, Citigroup, Others to Report Nov. Credit Losses
  • Sony Asks Media to Destroy Data as Sharpton Meeting Looms
  • Scott’s ‘Exodus’ Ends ‘Mockingjay’ 3-Week Run Atop Box Office
  • Lockheed Faces Pension-Mismanagement Trial Over Fees, Returns
  • Unlocking Japan Growth Potential Looms as Task for Abenomics 2.0
  • American Air, EA, Lam Research to Be Added to Nasdaq 100
  • Hostages Flee Besieged Sydney Cafe as Police Seek Bloodless End
  • ‘Monsters’ Line Road to Paris Climate Deal With Rich-Poor Divide
  • McDonald’s Said to Seek Ad Agency Ideas to Boost Sales: WSJ

 

EARNINGS:

    • Verifone (PAY) 4:01pm, $0.41

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Jumps Most in Two Weeks as Fighting, Strike Curb OPEC Output
  • Gold Declines to Lowest in Almost a Week on Fed Rate Outlook
  • Hedge Funds’ Bullish Gold Bets Defy Goldman Outlook: Commodities
  • Goldman Sees U.S. Oil Output Steady as Costs Sink With Price
  • Wheat Drops From 6-Month High as World Crop Eases Russia Concern
  • Nickel Leads Industrial-Metals Increase After Plant Shutdown
  • Oil Slump Blindsides Bulls That Wagered on Rout Ending: Energy
  • U.A.E. Says Oil Market to Stabilize If Shale Output Doesn’t Rise
  • Libya Imposes Force Majeure at Two Oil Ports Amid Clashes
  • Rebar Falls as Weaker China Property Sales Seen Hurting Demand
  • Rubber Surges Most in Nine Months on Optimism About Thai Buying
  • Bird Flu Threatens Vancouver Christmas Dinners as Turkeys Perish
  • U.A.E. Sees OPEC Output Unchanged Even If Oil Drops to $40
  • Brent Forecast to Cost 33% Less as Demand Slows: 2015 Outlook
  • Oyster Herpes Has Scientists Trying to Save $4 Billion Industry

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


December 15, 2014

December 15, 2014 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

December 15, 2014 - Slide2

December 15, 2014 - Slide3

December 15, 2014 - Slide4

 

 

BEARISH TRENDS

December 15, 2014 - Slide5

December 15, 2014 - Slide7

December 15, 2014 - Slide8

December 15, 2014 - Slide9

December 15, 2014 - Slide10

December 15, 2014 - Slide11

December 15, 2014 - Slide12


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.57%
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