THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 11, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or 0.40% downside to 2018 and 0.78% upside to 2042.                                        

                                                                                       

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.58 from 1.60
  • VIX closed at 18.53 1 day percent change of 24.45%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance, Nov., est. 0.4% (prior 0.3%)
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index, m/m, Nov., est. -1.8% (pr -1.3%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Dec. 6, est. 297k (pr 297k)
  • 8:45am: Bloomberg U.S. Economic Survey, Dec.
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Dec. 7 (prior 39.8)
  • 10am: Business Inventories, Oct., est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 12:pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 3Q (prior $1.390t)
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 30Y bonds in reopening

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Deadline day for govt funding bill
    • 9:10am: SEC Chair Mary Jo White speaks at New York Times Dealbook conference
    • 9:30am: House Energy and Commerce subcmte holds hearing on crude oil export ban
    • 12:15pm: IRS Commissioner John Koskinen delivers luncheon keynote address at GWU, IRS International Tax Conf.

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • New York Regulator Said to Probe Barclays, Deutsche Bank Forex Algorithms
  • Oil Trades Near 5-Yr Low as Saudis Question Need to Cut Output
  • Cargill Weighs Stand-Alone Bid for Animal-Feed Supplier Nutreco
  • Wal-Mart Report Found Inflated Profit in China
  • KKR Is Looking at Mexico Investment Opportunities, Petraeus Says
  • House Passes Bill to Ease Dodd-Frank Capital Rules for Insurers
  • PBOC Said to Inject 400b Yuan as Targeted Move Preferred
  • Google Shutting Down Spain News Website After Copyright Ruling
  • Walgreen CEO Is Out as Top Shareholder Pessina Takes Over
  • United Technologies Fills CFO Post Ahead of Investor Day
  • Fiat Chrysler Sells Stock at 4% Discount After Slump on NYSE
  • Starboard Takes 6% Staples Stake, Boosts Office Depot Shrs: WSJ
  • Ebay Said to Mull Cutting Thousands of Jobs Next Year: WSJ
  • SNB Sees Higher Deflation Risk, Keeps Franc Limit at EU1.20
  • Hong Kong Police Tear Down Tents as Democracy Protesters Make Last Stand
  • Danone Said to Discuss Two Offers Topping $3.7b for Nutrition Unit
  • ECB Says Banks Take EU130b in 2nd Targeted Long-Term Loan Offer

 

EARNINGS:

    • Adobe Systems (ADBE) 4:02pm, $0.30
    • Ciena (CIEN) 7am, $0.13
    • Dominion Diamond (DDC CN) 5pm, $0.25
    • Esterline Technologies (ESL) 4:05pm, $1.84
    • Lululemon (LULU) 5:30am, $0.38 preview
    • Methode Electronices (MEI) 6:30am, $0.55
    • Nordson (NDSN) 4:30pm, $1.13
    • North West (NWC CN) 10:45am, C$0.38
    • Quiksilver (ZQK) 4:04pm, ($0.12)
    • RadioShack (RSH) 7am, ($1.04)

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Trades Near 5-Year Low as Saudis Question Need to Cut Output
  • Roubini Global Predicts Sub-$60 Iron Ore Amid ‘Massive Surplus’
  • Milk Glut Spurs Slump in Win for U.S. Butter Eaters: Commodities
  • Gold Declines With Silver for Second Day as Dollar Strengthens
  • Robusta Coffee Falls for 6th Day on Vietnam Harvest; Cocoa Drops
  • HSBC Sees Silver Market Moving Into Supply Deficit Next Year
  • Copper Advances Amid Speculation China Will Move to Stoke Growth
  • Ore Ship-Charter Cost Has Longest Retreat in More Than a Year
  • Putin Pledges Oil, Weapons and Nuclear Power for Modi in India
  • Traders Hedge Oil ETF While Energy Stocks Lure Buyers: Options
  • Brent Crude May Fall to $60 a Barrel in Coming Weeks: Natixis
  • Wheat Extends Drop as Supply Outlook Improves; Soybeans Climb
  • ICE Gasoil Flips to Front-Month Contango for 1st Time Since Oct.
  • Iraq Says Its Oil Pricing Gives ‘No Basis’ for Price War Claims
  • Gold ETF Buyers Return as Investors Take Cover From Equities

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more