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Keith's Macro Notebook 12/9: Deflation | Oil | Volume

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.


A WEAK WEEK AHEAD OF TOUGH COMPS

Takeaway: Poor results from week 1 do nothing to dissuade us from our year long negative view on Macau stocks.

A detailed analysis of last week’s Macau data

 

 

Weekly ADTR fell 22% YoY last week. With weekly comps getting more difficult, focused enforcement of the transit visa scheme, and the China Presidential visit on the 19th/20th, trends could worsen further. For the full month, we’re projecting GGR to decline 23-28% YoY. 

 

We remain 10-15% below the Street on Q4 2014 and 2015 EBITDA estimates.  Numbers and sentiment are likely heading south over the near-term and until we see significantly lower Street estimates and the emergence of a positive catalyst, we remain negative on the Macau stocks.

 

Please see more details in our note: CLICK HERE

 

 


Join Tonight For Hedgeye Holiday Cocktails & Appetizers

'Tis the Season…. We hope you can join us at Cellar Bar (40 W. 40th Street – in the Bryant Park Hotel) TONIGHT December 9th from 5-9pm for some holiday cheer!

 

Please RSVP to this email if you can join.

 

We look forward to seeing you!

 

-Your Hedgeye Macro Team

 

Join Tonight For Hedgeye Holiday Cocktails & Appetizers  - z. Hedgeye  Holiday Invite

 

Join Tonight For Hedgeye Holiday Cocktails & Appetizers  - z. Cellar Bar Map


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

RH - FLASH Call TODAY 11am ET

Takeaway: We're hosting a quick call today to hit on our thoughts on key drivers headed into tomorrow's print, and will take questions accordingly.

We're hosting a FLASH Call on RH today at 11am ET. Details are below. 

We'll be reviewing our thoughts in advance of Wednesday's print, as well as hitting on the questions we're getting on the event.  

 

This will be a quick call – with 5-10 minutes of prepared remarks, and then 15 minutes of Q&A.  We’re encouraging people to send questions in advance to , though obviously feel free to send them real-time during the call. As always, all questions will be kept anonymous.  

 

Dialing Instructions

Time: 11am ET

Toll Free Number:

Toll Number:

Conference ID/Password:  13597516

Materials: CLICK HERE


THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK

Takeaway: In today's edition of the Macro Playbook, we show how the U.S. equity market is not yet pricing in a transition out of #Quad4.

INVESTMENT CONCLUSIONS

Long Ideas/Overweight Recommendations

  1. iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF (MUB)
  2. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP)
  3. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
  4. Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV)
  5. Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)

Short Ideas/Underweight Recommendations

  1. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
  2. iShares MSCI European Monetary Union ETF (EZU)
  3. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)
  4. iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
  5. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP)

 

QUANT SIGNALS & RESEARCH CONTEXT

One of These Things Is Not Like the Other: Well, make that a few of these things. One of the things we’re watching intently on a day-to-day basis is whether or not the market starts to price in a transition from #Quad4 to #Quad1, which we continue to anticipate is the next logical stop on our GIP Model.

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - UNITED STATES

 

In the process of attempting to front-run the aforementioned phase transition, we are employing our Tactical Asset Class Rotation Model (TACRM) to ardently watch for two signals from the U.S. equity market:

 

  1. Historically strong #Quad4 sectors and style factors ceding leadership – from a Volatility-Adjusted Multi-Duration Momentum Indicator (VAMDMI) perspective – on a trending basis
  2. Historically strong #Quad1 sectors and style factors gaining leadership – from a VAMDMI perspective – on a trending basis

 

Why do we anchor on our proprietary VAMDMI reading rather than single-factor price momentum? Because we have no clue from what duration the preponderance of investors are measuring momentum on – other than that as volatility accelerates, the average investor shortens his/her investment horizon (something we solve for in TACRM).

 

In light of that, all we can do is record and amalgamate price momentum from multiple durations, adjusting for volatility in the process. This process gives us the best probability of determining where an investor might feel compelled to chase outperformance or blow out of underperforming exposures.

 

Isolating our search to the top-10 U.S. equity sectors and style factors we track in TACRM (47 in total), we see that 4 of those 10 are fairly new entrants and can be attributed to #Quad1 expectations (Financials: XLF, IAI, KIE; Tech: SMH), while the other 6 are unequivocal winners in #Quad4 (Healthcare: XLV, IBB, IHE, IHI; REITS: VNQ; Utilities: XLU) and have remained in/around the top-10 for months.  Moreover, 9 of the bottom-11 VAMDMI readings are sectors and style factors are distinct losers in #Quad4 (Energy: XLE, AMLP, XOP, IEZ; Materials: XLB, GDX; Small-to-Mid Caps: IWM, IWN, IWO) and have also remained in/around the bottom-10 for months.

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - TACRM U.S. Equity Style Factors

 

All told, it can be said that the market continues to price in #Quad4 at the sector and style factor level.

 

While it’s easy for an investor to get lost in attempting make an all-or-nothing call on the broader market, the real outperformance of 2014 has been sourced from getting the direction of interest rates right as it pertains to slow-growth, yield-chasing sectors, as well as nailing the turn from #InflationAccelerating in 1H15 to #Quad4 in 2H15. We may have gotten a lot of things wrong along the way, but we definitely got those two BIG macro calls right!

 

***CLICK HERE to download the full TACRM presentation.***

 

TRACKING OUR ACTIVE MACRO THEMES

#Quad4 (introduced 10/2/14): Our models are forecasting a continued slowing in the pace of domestic economic growth, as well as a further deceleration in inflation here in Q4. The confluence of these two events is likely to perpetuate a rise in volatility across asset classes as broad-based expectations for a robust economic recovery and tighter monetary policy are met with bearish data that is counter to the consensus narrative.

 

Early Look: Party Hard? (12/8)

 

#EuropeSlowing (introduced 10/2/14): Is ECB President Mario Draghi Europe's savior? Despite his ability to wield a QE fire hose, our view is that inflation via currency debasement does not produce sustainable economic growth. We believe select member states will struggle to implement appropriate structural reforms and fiscal management to induce real growth.

 

Draghi Didn’t Deliver the “Drugs”! (12/4)

 

#Bubbles (introduced 10/2/14): The current economic cycle is cresting and the confluence of policy-induced yield-chasing and late-cycle speculation is inflating spread risk across asset classes. The clock is ticking on the value proposition of the latest policy to inflate as the prices many investors are paying for financial assets is significantly higher than the value they are receiving in return.

 

#Bubbles: “Hedge Fund Hotel” Edition (Part II) (12/8)

 

Best of luck out there,

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team

 

About the Hedgeye Macro Playbook

The Hedgeye Macro Playbook aspires to present investors with the robust quantitative signals, well-researched investment themes and actionable ETF recommendations required to dynamically allocate assets and front-run regime changes across global financial markets.

 

The securities highlighted above represent our top ten investment recommendations based on our active macro themes, which themselves stem from our proprietary four-quadrant Growth/Inflation/Policy (GIP) framework. The securities are ranked according to our calculus of the immediate-term risk/reward of going long or short at the prior closing price, which itself is based on our proprietary analysis of price, volume and volatility trends.

 

Effectively, it is a dynamic ranking of the order in which we’d buy or sell the securities today – keeping in mind that we have equal conviction in each security from an intermediate-term absolute return perspective.


#Deflation Trends Continue

Client Talking Points

DEFLATION

Expectations continue to rise as prices linked to inflation expectations continue to crash (Russia down another -1.9% this morning to -38.5% year-to-date); the domino risk of deflation from Oil to Energy Stocks and Bonds doesn’t stop there – Policies to Inflate have dominated headlines for half a decade.

OIL

Oil crashed clocked in at -42% (from June!) then bounced right off that $62.21 oversold level we gave you yesterday; dynamic and non-linear situation continues with a refreshed risk range of $61.27-68.02/barrel; you’d need to bounce well beyond the top-end of that range to get energy stock/bond bulls back to breakeven.

VOLUME

The trend of accelerating volume on DOWN days continues – yesterday’s Total U.S. Equity Market Volume was +25% and +17% vs. its 1mth and 3mth averages, respectively.

Asset Allocation

CASH 62% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 31% INTL CURRENCIES 7%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
EDV

The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). U.S. real GDP growth is unlikely to come in anywhere in the area code of consensus projections of 3-plus percent. And it is becoming clear to us that market participants are interpreting the Fed’s dovish shift as signaling cause for concern with respect to the growth outlook. We remain on other side of Consensus Macro positions (bearish on Oil, bullish on Treasuries, bearish on SPX) and still have high conviction in our biggest macro call of 2014 - that U.S. growth would slow and bond yields fall in kind.

TLT

We continue to think long-term interest rates are headed in the direction of both reported growth and growth expectations – i.e. lower. In light of that, we encourage you to remain long of the long bond. The performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities should continue to widen over the next two to three months. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove. We certainly hope you had the Long Bond (TLT) on versus the Russell 2000 (short side) as the performance divergence in being long #GrowthSlowing hit its widest for 2014 YTD (ex-reinvesting interest).

XLP

The U.S. is in Quad #4 on our GIP (Growth/Inflation/Policy) model, which suggests that both economic growth and reported inflation are slowing domestically. As far as the eye can see in a falling interest rate environment, we think you should increase your exposure to slow-growth, yield-chasing trade and remain long of defensive assets like long-term treasuries and Consumer Staples (XLP) – which work decidedly better than Utilities in Quad #4. Consumer Staples is as good as any place to hide as the world clamors for low-beta-big-cap-liquidity.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

RUSSIA: stock market crash continues to be vicious - down another -1.9% today to -38.5% YTD #NoWorries

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

There is only one way to avoid criticism: do nothing, say  nothing, and be nothing.

-Aristotle

STAT OF THE DAY

68, the number of victories for Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers in his first 100 starts in the NFL.  Rodgers led his team to a 43-37 win over Atlanta last night in his 100th start.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.32%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.49%
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