European Banking Monitor: Continued Divergence in Russian Swaps

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email 

 

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Key Takeaway:

From a risk management standpoint, we remain very focused on the rising risk of a Russian banking crisis. In a nutshell, Western sanctions are driving capital out of the country causing the Ruble to weaken. Falling oil prices are compounding the problem. The CEO of Sberbank, Russia's largest bank with 46% deposit share, said back on November 14th that if the Russian economy were to decline by more than 1.2% in 2015 Sberbank would need the State to bail it out. Sberbank's CDS tacked on another 97 bps over the week, rising to 503 bps this week.

 

Russia's GDP was most recently growing at 0.7% Q/Q annualized. Energy contributes between 20-25% of GDP and oil prices are down by ~30%. This implies a drag on GDP of -6-8% as we roll into 2015. In other words, if sanctions aren't removed and oil prices don't bounce, the Ruble should continue to lose value and Russia will need to bail out its banking system at a time when it's already hemorrhaging cash ($100bn/year) from falling oil prices. That makes for a nasty mix with US equities at/near all time highs. 

 

European Financial CDS - Swaps mostly tightened in Europe last week with an average -4.7% move.  There were a few extreme movers in the region.  Russia continued to show extreme widening WoW: +97 bps, +23.9%.  Sberbank's CDS at 503 bps flag reflects the rising risk in the Russian economy.  Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo tightened to most last week (-88 bps, -17.8%) as Portuguese authorities near a sale of a few of the collapsed bank's parts.

 

European Banking Monitor: Continued Divergence in Russian Swaps - chart1 euro financials CDS

 

Sovereign CDS – European Sovereign Swaps mostly tightened over last week. Italian sovereign swaps tightened by -10.7% (-14 bps to 115 ) and American sovereign swaps widened by 10.3% (2 bps to 18).  American CDS displayed a divergence from the stock market's (S&P 500) flat performance for the week. 

 

European Banking Monitor: Continued Divergence in Russian Swaps - chart2 sovereign CDS

European Banking Monitor: Continued Divergence in Russian Swaps - chart3 sovereign CDS

European Banking Monitor: Continued Divergence in Russian Swaps - chart4 sovereign CDS

 

Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 0 bps to 8 bps.

 

European Banking Monitor: Continued Divergence in Russian Swaps - chart5 euribor.OIS spread

 

Matthew Hedrick

Associate

 

Ben Ryan

Analyst 


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