Recent Notes
12/01/14 Monday Mashup: YUM, BLMN and More
12/02/14 Long YUM Call Today @10AM
12/03/14 BOBE: The Clock Is Ticking
Events This Week
Monday, December 8th
- MCD November 2014 Sales and Revenue Release
Tuesday, December 9th
- KKD earnings call 4:30pm EST
Wednesday, December 10th
- Bernstein Consumer Summit: NDLS, DENN
- MCD Oak Brook Investor Meeting
Thursday, December 11th
- YUM Investor & Analyst Conference
Chart of the Day
MCD reported a -2.2% decline in global same-store sales for the month of November, missing estimates of -1.9%. We'll have more out on this later today.
Recent News Flow
Monday, December 1st
- RRGB announced it is two weeks away from opening its first restaurant in Louisiana (Baton Rouge).
Tuesday, December 2nd
- DFRG upgraded to outperform at Raymond James.
- TXRH downgraded to outperform from strong buy at Raymond James.
- CAKE announced the return of its seasonal Peppermint Bark Cheesecake, a festive favorite, in restaurants worldwide.
Wednesday, December 3rd
- BOBE downgraded to underweight at KeyBanc with a $45 PT.
Thursday, December 4th
- JMBA provided an update on several initiatives undertaken to drive growth and shareholder value including: its continual move to an asset-light model (targeting 80% franchise-to-company-owned model by the end of 2015), annual cost savings of $30 million and ample share repurchases. Management also indicated that same-store sales for the first four weeks of 4Q14 are running in the mid single-digit range.
- SBUX detailed its five-year plan at its biennial investor conference in Seattle. Among the key topics touched upon were: coffee and tea leadership, daypart and store format diversification, mobile commerce momentum and innovation (including mobile order & pay), global and channel expansion, and financial operating performance.
- BKW announced its application to acquire THI was approved by the Canadian government.
Friday, December 5th
- LOCO announced the opening of its newest restaurant located at 40520 Winchester Road in Temecula, CA. The 3,800 sq. ft. restaurant was relocated from 27375 Jefferson Ave.
- DFRG was ranked #3 by The Dallas Morning News in its Top 100 Places to Work list (mid-size companies). This is the second consecutive year DFRG was included on the list.
- CBRL announced its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share.
- COSI reported comps for the five weeks ended December 1st of +3.7% and +0.6% at company-owned and franchise restaurants, respectively.
Sector Performance
The SPX (+0.4%) outperformed the XLY (-0.4%) last week, as both casual dining and quick service stocks, in aggregate, outperformed the XLY.
XLY Quantitative Setup
From a quantitative perspective, the sector remains bullish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.
Casual Dining Restaurants
Quick Service Restaurants
Howard Penney
Managing Director
Fred Masotta
Analyst