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Monday Mashup: MCD, KKD and More - 1

Recent Notes

12/01/14 Monday Mashup: YUM, BLMN and More

12/02/14 Long YUM Call Today @10AM

12/03/14 BOBE: The Clock Is Ticking

Events This Week

Monday, December 8th

  • MCD November 2014 Sales and Revenue Release

Tuesday, December 9th

  • KKD earnings call 4:30pm EST

Wednesday, December 10th

  • Bernstein Consumer Summit: NDLS, DENN
  • MCD Oak Brook Investor Meeting

Thursday, December 11th

  • YUM Investor & Analyst Conference

Chart of the Day

MCD reported a -2.2% decline in global same-store sales for the month of November, missing estimates of -1.9%.  We'll have more out on this later today.

Monday Mashup: MCD, KKD and More - 2

Recent News Flow

Monday, December 1st

  • RRGB announced it is two weeks away from opening its first restaurant in Louisiana (Baton Rouge).

Tuesday, December 2nd

  • DFRG upgraded to outperform at Raymond James.
  • TXRH downgraded to outperform from strong buy at Raymond James.
  • CAKE announced the return of its seasonal Peppermint Bark Cheesecake, a festive favorite, in restaurants worldwide.

Wednesday, December 3rd

  • BOBE downgraded to underweight at KeyBanc with a $45 PT.

Thursday, December 4th

  • JMBA provided an update on several initiatives undertaken to drive growth and shareholder value including: its continual move to an asset-light model (targeting 80% franchise-to-company-owned model by the end of 2015), annual cost savings of $30 million and ample share repurchases.  Management also indicated that same-store sales for the first four weeks of 4Q14 are running in the mid single-digit range.
  • SBUX detailed its five-year plan at its biennial investor conference in Seattle.  Among the key topics touched upon were: coffee and tea leadership, daypart and store format diversification, mobile commerce momentum and innovation (including mobile order & pay), global and channel expansion, and financial operating performance.
  • BKW announced its application to acquire THI was approved by the Canadian government.  

Friday, December 5th

  • LOCO announced the opening of its newest restaurant located at 40520 Winchester Road in Temecula, CA.  The 3,800 sq. ft. restaurant was relocated from 27375 Jefferson Ave.
  • DFRG was ranked #3 by The Dallas Morning News in its Top 100 Places to Work list (mid-size companies).  This is the second consecutive year DFRG was included on the list.
  • CBRL announced its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share.
  • COSI reported comps for the five weeks ended December 1st of +3.7% and +0.6% at company-owned and franchise restaurants, respectively.

Sector Performance

The SPX (+0.4%) outperformed the XLY (-0.4%) last week, as both casual dining and quick service stocks, in aggregate, outperformed the XLY.

Monday Mashup: MCD, KKD and More - 3

Monday Mashup: MCD, KKD and More - 4

XLY Quantitative Setup

From a quantitative perspective, the sector remains bullish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.

Monday Mashup: MCD, KKD and More - 5

Casual Dining Restaurants

Monday Mashup: MCD, KKD and More - 6

Monday Mashup: MCD, KKD and More - 7

Quick Service Restaurants

Monday Mashup: MCD, KKD and More - 8

Monday Mashup: MCD, KKD and More - 9

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Fred Masotta

Analyst