EVENTS TO WATCH
KSS - 10Q: e-Commerce
Takeaway: KSS released its 10Q on Friday. The most notable takeaway is 31.6% growth in the online channel. Despite the big jump we still saw a sequential deceleration on the 2yr because of the replatform during 2Q13. Specifically, when we look at the quarterly comp composition (chart 2), we see that after backing out the e-commerce growth, it implies that the store comp was -4%, matching new lows. Juicy and Izod aren't really having the desired effect for the bulls. KSS remains our top short.
Black Friday Weekend Online Shopping
Takeaway: There's nothing investable about this chart, but we find the content to be fascinating. This shows the hourly trend in shopping online over the Black Friday weekend. Three takeaways…
- The holiday shopping season appears to being in earnest online at about 8pm on Thanksgiving night.
- The notion that Cyber-Monday is being 'pulled forward' to Black Friday does not appear to be true. Yes, there is a step-up from Thanksgiving Day levels, but still nowhere compared to the spike we saw on Monday.
- Notice the huge drop-off from Cyber-Monday to Tuesday. Is that because people all of a sudden don't want to shop? Absolutely not. That's when the online promotional spigot all but shuts down -- at least relative to what had been in place the preceding four days. This is the 'tail wagging the dog', in that consumers will shop when the promotions are there. When the deals go away, so do shoppers.
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