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Editor's note: This is an excerpt from Hedgeye research. For more information on how you can become a subscriber to America's fastest growing independent research firm click here.

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Ignore the chart below at your own peril.

U.S. Jobless Claims always bottom below 300,000. That marks the beginning of the end (before the beginning of a recession). Then they ramp higher.

Just something to keep in mind as the number of people seeking unemployment benefits jumped last week to 313,000. This pushed total applications above 300,000 for the first time in nearly three months.

Ignore This Chart (At Your Peril) - jobless claims chart