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Takeaway: Odell’s ‘The Catch’ made wearing Nike gloves, big UA snub – again. WMT CMO leaves 3 days before Black Friday. TIF, DSW, BWS SIGMAs.

ECONOMIC DATA

Takeaway: Not the type of strength we'd expect to see out of the ICSC through Nov. so far in light of the fact that disposable personal income was slightly negative during the same month last year.  Comps get easier throughout the month and December when DPI was -3.1% YY. We could talk all day about cheap gas and easy comps, but the fact is that we haven't seen any data points during this earnings season that would make us get more constructive on the US consumer.

Retail Callouts (11/25): NKE, UA, WMT, ICSC, TIF, DSW, BWS - 11 25 chart1

COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS

WMT - Wal-Mart’s Chief Merchandising Officer to Leave

(http://online.wsj.com/articles/wal-marts-chief-merchandising-officer-to-leave-sources-1416895125)

Takeaway: What does this tell you when Wal-Mart loses (or fires) it's Chief Merchant three days before Black Friday?

TIF - 3Q14 Earnings

Takeaway: The US business continues to look rock solid and Europe surprised to the upside as comp trends improved by 1100bps sequentially and 400bps on the two year. The rest of the Globe underperformed expectations though each region improved sequentially on a 2yr basis. Comps get easier on the top line over the next 3 months, but over a little longer duration we don't love the set up. Gross margins are at peak and consensus has that expanding by another 100bps by 2018. SG&A is at post recession lows. Not a name that we want to put on our short bench -- yet at least -- but one we'll avoid on the long side unless an unwarranted price drop gives us an opportunity for a TRADE.  

Retail Callouts (11/25): NKE, UA, WMT, ICSC, TIF, DSW, BWS - TIF SIGMA

NKE - Odell Beckham Catch Means $2.2 Million for Nike Gloves

(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-24/odell-beckham-catch-means-2-2-million-for-nike-gloves.html)

  • "Nike Inc.’s official football Twitter account sent a photo of the 22-year-old New York Giants rookie with the tagline 'Drop Jaws. Catch Everything Else.'"

Takeaway: That catch will be played on Sports Center's 'best catch' top ten (potentially in the #1 slot) for decades to come. Nike definitely is using that as a big authenticator for it's football gloves -- especially when the picture shows that Brandon Carr, the Cowboy cornerback who fouled Odell and still couldn't make him drop the ball -- was wearing UnderArmour gloves.

Retail Callouts (11/25): NKE, UA, WMT, ICSC, TIF, DSW, BWS - 11 25 chart5

Source: NBC Sports

BWS - 3Q14 Earnings

Takeaway:  Perennially-underperforming BWS definitely beats out DSW yet again this quarter.  Its SIGMA looks better, as margins remain strong and inventory position is right-sizing. Absolute EPS growth was 20.9% on top of 3.7% revenue growth. DSW, however, de-levered 5.8% sales growth into a -3.5% earnings decline, and inventories still look problematic.

Retail Callouts (11/25): NKE, UA, WMT, ICSC, TIF, DSW, BWS - 11 25 chart3

DSW - 3Q14 Earnings

Retail Callouts (11/25): NKE, UA, WMT, ICSC, TIF, DSW, BWS - 11 25 chart4

OTHER NEWS

AMZN - Amazon to team up with Royal Mail to allow parcel collection

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/amazon/11250237/Amazon-to-team-up-with-Royal-Mail-to-allow-parcel-collection.html)

KSS, TGT - ‘Frozen’ Overtakes Barbie as Holiday Season’s Most Popular Toy

(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-24/-frozen-overtakes-barbie-as-most-popular-holiday-gift-for-girls.html)

Chow Tai Fook’s sales hurt by China’s economic slowdown

(http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fa70b416-748d-11e4-b30b-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3K57t8w5Q)

WMT - Wal-Mart names former American Airlines CEO to board

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/wal-mart-names-former-american-airlines-ceo-board)

  • "Wal-Mart Stores Inc. has appointed Tom Horton, former chairman and CEO of American Airlines, as a new member of the company’s board, effective Nov. 21."

ODP - Office Depot using new location-based marketing app Shazam In-Store

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/office-depot-using-new-location-based-marketing-app-shazam-store)