TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 24, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 55 points or 2.54% downside to 2011 and 0.12% upside to 2066.
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
WHAT TO WATCH:
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
The Hedgeye Macro Team
This note was originally published at 8am on November 10, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.
“The system was blinking red.”
That’s what the 9/11 Commission Report told us, after the fact. That’s what I’ll tell you after the next “risk on” move happens in markets like it did in early October. It’s all part of a signaling process I use to identify phase transitions in markets.
This is also the #process that my friend Jim Rickards applied to tracking terror related events in markets. As Rickards writes in The Death Of Money, “no one trades in isolation.” And there is plenty of market wisdom in that.
Jim says he’s “careful to document and time-stamp the signals and analysis in real-time… it would not be credible to look at the tape in hindsight… we wanted to see things in advance.” (Rickards, pg 36). That’s what I do, every market day.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
But, but… the “market won’t go down on that anymore. What is the next catalyst? How do we know it’s going to go down?” I get some version of those questions all of the time. The answer is that the “market” isn’t just some naval gazing US equity index.
To review the #process:
Within a dynamic ecosystem of colliding, non-linear factors, I’ll almost always register #divergences. In your natural ecosystem of life, a divergence would be that it’s snowing 10 miles from where you see no precipitation.
Here are some of last week’s most notable equity market #divergences in my notebook:
Meanwhile you saw big time bearish divergences in Emerging Market Equities versus something like the SP500 which closed +0.7% on the week at its all-time high:
Emerging Markets have looked a lot like the Russell 2000 (a US growth index) and the 10yr Treasury Yield (another US economic #GrowthSlowing proxy) as of late – and that shouldn’t surprise anyone who realizes that global growth continues to slow.
But but, if your “market” is simply what the SP500 is doing, I can show you #GrowthSlowing divergences there too:
Since our #Quad4 deflation playbook says you buy Consumer Staples (XLP) and Healthcare (XLV), last week’s divergences at the sector level certainly made a lot more sense to us than the consensus “gas prices are down, so buy the consumer” meme.
Growth and inflation expectations are obviously causal to market prices. But so are central planners burning their respective currencies at the stake.
While many US only “market” people think the US Dollar’s rise is a sign of their savior, it’s not (if you had #RatesRising it might be, but they fell again last week to 2.30% on the UST 10yr Yield). It’s a sign of global economic duress.
Last week had both the Japanese and European central planners devaluing their currencies, at the same time:
By any long-term measure, these are massive annualized currency moves.
And since the market I look at is coming off all-time lows in cross asset class volatility (FX, Equities, Commodities, Fixed Income – see our #VolatilityAssymetry slide deck from July of 2014), I see the FX market as the biggest blinking red light of all.
It’s warning the world that this grand central planning experiment is failing where it matters most, in economic growth terms.
Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:
UST 10yr Yield 2.26-2.38%
Best of luck out there this week,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
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Takeaway: Here are Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough's refreshed levels for our high-conviction investing ideas.
Trade :: Trend :: Tail Process - These are three durations over which we analyze investment ideas and themes. Hedgeye has created a process as a way of characterizing our investment ideas and their risk profiles, to fit the investing strategies and preferences of our subscribers.
Anything longer than 3 years is unpredictable.
Takeaway: Current Investing Ideas: EDV, HCA, MUB, RH, TLT and XLP.
Below are Hedgeye analysts’ latest updates on our six current high-conviction long investing ideas.
We also feature two pieces of content from our research team at the bottom.
*Note: We will send CEO Keith McCullough’s updated levels for each investing idea at the beginning of this coming week.
With the exception of a few noteworthy [bullish] housing data points and [outrageously incongruent] regional surveys, the critical economic releases from this week continue to support our view that both growth and inflation are slowing simultaneously:
Calling for continued disinflation is a trivial matter at this point (CLICK HERE to review why).
Growth bulls, however, will accuse us of cherry-picking #GrowthSlowing data. In the spirit of pre-empting that (we play chess, not checkers @Hedgeye), we thought we’d take this moment to highlight the trending rate of change across the broad spectrum of key economic indicators:
As you can see, the vast majority of the key economic indicators are slowing quite ardently.
When growth slows, we like the long bond (TLT, EDV, MUB) and equities that can give us a yield (i.e. XLP, XLU and XLV). With a likely [bullish] #Quad1 setup coming down the pike in 1Q15, this research recommendation of ours is admittedly long in the tooth.
That being said, however, we see no reason to back off the thesis now. Anyone who’s followed our investment advice to be long of bonds and slow-growth, yield-chasing in the equity market is clearly having a great year:
Specifically, we still expect to see the final crescendo of consensus capitulation on the short side of Treasuries in the coming weeks.
Furthermore, we think the worst thing you can do right now is sell these winners to rotate into the Consensus Macro playbook of buying early cycle stocks up here. We think you’ll get a much better opportunity to rotate in #Quad1 from lower prices in the coming weeks.
If we’re wrong on that, we’ll be wrong on that. But the process stays stick with the current playbook – especially when the data supports it!
The long position in HCA comes down to two assumptions: 1-2% volume and 3-4% price. If those are reasonable assumptions, HCA is going much higher. It would seem consensus is expecting much worse.
On volume, we’ve talked previously about the importance of maternity trends to hospitals, and HCA is no exception. We assume their strong volume growth in 3Q14 was driven largely by an increase in births as well as newly insured people coming on from Health Reform. We are slightly cautious in the short term as two data series reflecting recent maternity strength are sliding toward weakness in the last few updates. We’re also seeing good patient visit trends, and within two time series we began using recently, strong hiring and capital spending among providers, both of which reflect strong demand in our view. SO maybe if maternity slows, other trends will pick up the slack. If we see orthopedic cases continue to accelerate, and a higher mix of high priced ortho cases, the positive impact on our pricing assumption will be substantial, and 3-4% price will prove to be low.
Below is a chart that shows how many jobs in healthcare remain open versus HCA’s same store volume growth. It would seem 1-2% volume is not a stretch goal.
Restoration Hardware shares were up 6% this week for two reasons. 1) The bullish read-through we received this past week from the Williams-Sonoma print and 2) the RH Atlanta store opening.
1) Keep in mind that Williams-Sonoma turned out to be an excellent directional indicator for RH last quarter. WSM putting up great top line numbers augurs well for RH shares.
2) As far as Atlanta is concerned, the store opening there is more than your average store. Legacy stores are 8,000 sq ft. Design Galleries are 20,000. This one is a whopping 65,000 So, despite the fact that it's only one store on a base of 68, it's really the equivalent of adding 6 new stores.
And as it relates to size, our RH real estate deck specifically quantified why Atlanta is a market that could support a store as big as 90k ft. Translation = it's definitely not too big for this market.
ADDITIONAL RESEARCH CONTENT BELOW
* * * * * * * * * *
We’ve been dead wrong on Japan over the past month or so. With the exception of one MAJOR caveat, consensus probably has this trade right.
Existing Home Sales joins the bullish housing party, alongside NAHB (Tuesday) and Housing Starts & Mortgage Apps (Wednesday).
Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.