Client Talking Points
Burning Yens move back to $116.67 on Abe promising to do what the country can’t afford (delaying consumption tax for political points) and going for the snapper election on DEC 14th – what happens to this global carry trading thing if he loses? Yen (vs. USD) testing the low-end of its 114.04-116.97 risk range #volatility pending!
It’s not clear how many more selling opportunities they are going to give us in French and Italian equities, but this is just one more bounce to lower-highs that we’d look to sell into on a newsy morning about “German recovery” – GDP comps for Europe are tough for the next 3 quarters.
The Russell 2000 is down -1.9% in the last 3 days, but the world’s consensus hedge (SPY) isn’t down (yet), so no worries. From both a liquidity and volume perspective, this is a rewind of the movie you saw in late SEP (decelerating volume on UP days for SPX). Total U.S. Equity market volume was -26% vs. its 1month average yesterday.
|FIXED INCOME||29%||INTL CURRENCIES||4%|
Top Long Ideas
The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). U.S. real GDP growth is unlikely to come in anywhere in the area code of consensus projections of 3-plus percent. And it is becoming clear to us that market participants are interpreting the Fed’s dovish shift as signaling cause for concern with respect to the growth outlook. We remain on other side of Consensus Macro positions (bearish on Oil, bullish on Treasuries, bearish on SPX) and still have high conviction in our biggest macro call of 2014 - that U.S. growth would slow and bond yields fall in kind.
We continue to think long-term interest rates are headed in the direction of both reported growth and growth expectations – i.e. lower. In light of that, we encourage you to remain long of the long bond. The performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities should continue to widen over the next two to three months. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove. We certainly hope you had the Long Bond (TLT) on versus the Russell 2000 (short side) as the performance divergence in being long #GrowthSlowing hit its widest for 2014 YTD (ex-reinvesting interest).
The U.S. is in Quad #4 on our GIP (Growth/Inflation/Policy) model, which suggests that both economic growth and reported inflation are slowing domestically. As far as the eye can see in a falling interest rate environment, we think you should increase your exposure to slow-growth, yield-chasing trade and remain long of defensive assets like long-term treasuries and Consumer Staples (XLP) – which work decidedly better than Utilities in Quad #4. Consumer Staples is as good as any place to hide as the world clamors for low-beta-big-cap-liquidity.
Three for the Road
TWEET OF THE DAY
CFTC (non-commercial) net SHORT position in the Euro at YTD highs of -162,216 contracts #massive
QUOTE OF THE DAY
If you would be wealthy, think of saving as well as getting.
STAT OF THE DAY
A group of Walmart employees pushing for higher wages are planning protests at 1,600 Walmart stores nationwide on Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year in the United States.