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Write It Down

This note was originally published at 8am on November 04, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Write down, therefore, what you have seen, and what is happening, and what will happen afterwards.”

-Revelation 1:19

 

No, I’m not going all religious on you this morning. That’s the opening volley from Jim Rickards in his recent book, The Death of Money. For those of you who missed it, I had a Real Conversation @HedgeyeTV with Rickards earlier in the year that you can watch here.

 

Do you write it down? What is “it”? And what do you do when something macro is happening that hasn’t happened for a very long period of time (like #deflation)? Once market expectations go through a phase transition from inflation policies to deflation, what will happen afterwards?

 

I’ve been writing down real-time market quotes, data, research, etc. in my notebook for 15 years and I have only seen versions of what I have been writing down for the last 10 months 2x: October 2007 and October 2008. Neither were bullish historical reference points and neither were the same.

 

Write It Down - 3

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

To review, what is #Quad4 Deflation? In our risk management process (rate of change) it’s when the second derivatives in both growth and inflation are slowing, at the same time. These signals are both non-linear, and dynamic.

 

“There has been no episode of persistent deflation in the United States since the period from 1927-1933; as a result, Americans have practically no living memory of deflation.” (The Death of Money, pg 9)

 

I was in LA yesterday (San Francisco today) and, to a degree, I think that’s why we’ve been getting so many moments of silence in one-on-one Institutional Investor meetings as of late. It’s really hard for objective risk managers to absorb a scenario they’ve really never had to deal with.

 

“Objective”? Yes, as in this is what the market told you about #Deflation expectations yesterday:

 

  1. US Dollar up +0.3% to +8.8% YTD
  2. WTI Crude Oil down -2.8% to #crashing -20.5% YTD
  3. Energy Stocks (XLE) down -1.6% to -2.8% YTD
  4. Basic Material Stocks (XLB) -0.7% to +3.9% YTD
  5. Healthcare Stocks (XLV) +0.1% to +21.5%% YTD

 

In other words, in stark contrast to the Dollar Up, Rates Up #Quad1 signal we gave you to be long of everything big beta US growth in 2013, this Dollar Up (going to cash), Down Rates, #Deflation move is nasty for most things that lose their pricing power.

 

Healthcare (XLV) and Utilities (XLU) are two of the sectors that don’t get decimated by #deflation as fast as a levered-long-crude-oil-hedgie-dude (or an upstream E&P MLP dude who depends on the “dividend” that is decided by the price of the other dude’s oil inflation expectations).

 

I know, #dude!

 

That’s why the objective investor who has been writing down the sector returns for the SP500 in 2014 has noted the following RELATIVE YTD performance:

 

  1. Healthcare (XLV) +12.3% YTD
  2. Utilities (XLU) +11.4% YTD
  3. Technology (XLK) +4.7% YTD

Vs.

  1. Basic Materials (XLB) -5.2% YTD
  2. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -7.3% YTD
  3. Energy (XLE) -12.0% YTD

 

Yep, if all you did was express either our early-cycle slowdown calls for #ConsumerSlowing and #HousingSlowdown from the beginning of the year and/or our #Quad4 deflation call, in your S&P Sector asset allocations, you’ve crushed it.

 

If all that mattered to the American Consumer was “gas prices” (it actually represents only 6.4% of the median consumer’s budget) all of these rosy “surveys” you’ve been reading would have been right. Instead, in relative and sector performance terms, those narrative fallacies got you killed.

 

But, but, the ISM number was great yesterday. Yep, just great, another survey!

 

In other news, Industrials (XLI) closed down on the day on that ISM manufacturing report. I wonder if that’s because the non-survey data (US Retail Sales, Consumer Spending, Durable Goods, Construction Spending, and New Home Sales), all recently SLOWED, in actual rate of change terms!

 

Moving along…

 

If only everyone who writes in this business was forced to actually write this stuff down, every single day, consensus might be as concerned about the big beta #bubble in levered-long-and-illiquid US equity inflation expectations as I am.

 

But what is your catalyst, Keith?

 

  1. What I have been writing to you all year is already happening
  2. What I have seen (on the mid-October Russell and Bond Yield Lows) has not been forgotten
  3. What is most probable to happen next is more of the same

 

If everything that was in #crash mode on October 13-14th were to crash, literally, tomorrow… I’d write it down too – and “it” would be something that should not come as a surprise to anyone.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.21-2.37%

SPX 1967-2033

RUT 1086-1181

Italy’s MIB Index 18912-20099

Yen 109.27-113.66

WTI Oil 76.41-80.94

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Write It Down - 11.04.14 Chart


RCL EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION/DINNER NOTES (11/16-11/17)

Takeaway: Lots of positive buzz on elements on Quantum, particularly the WiFi. But the 'Quantumizing' of the existing fleet will be costly.

Management commentary on board Quantum

 

 

Chairman Fain, CEO

  • Fuel:  20% better on ships pre-2006 vs post 2006 on $ per APCD
  • 85% guests using smart online registration process; boarding process on ship was less than 10 minutes.
  • O3B technology:  
    • Connectivity is 450x faster (fastest in the industry)
    • 8 orbiting satellites beaming on Quantum
    • Will be on Allure shortly and will be implemented across the fleet, particularly Caribbean-focused ships
      • Will be a very expensive investment 
      • Currently charging less on new WiFi product than older version of internet on other ships
    • RCL has exclusive contract with O3B in the cruise industry for a long period of time
  • Energy usage:  10-12% more efficient than their competition
    • Additional ~2.5% energy improvement expected in 2014
  • Advanced Emission Purification (AEP):  takes out sulfur; Mein Schiff III is the 1st cruise ship built with an AEP system already installed
  • Oasis 3 :  20% more efficient than Oasis 
  • Newer ships:  25% higher revenue, 20% lower costs, 3.5x higher EBITDA
  • ROI opportunities:  Best thing to add are staterooms; staterooms cost less to build on newer ships. 
  • Customers who book onboard activities in advance spend more onboard $ on the ship.  The pre-cruise planner has worked well.
  • Revenue breakdown:  Have gone from 20% non-US to 50% non-US

 

Jason Liberty, CFO

  • Solid liquidity
  • Net debt/EBITDA improved by ~50% over last 5 yrs
  • ROIC up 110 bps YoY
  • Moderate capacity growth:  
    • 2 Quantum Class
    • 2 Oasis Class
    • No order for 2017
    • Sold 5 ships in past 6 years
  • Continued double yield growth for Europe and China for end of 2014
  • Quantum demand exceeding expectation
  • 2015 
    • Yield growth: higher than 2014 yield growth
    • Fuel consumption down 2.5% for 2015

 

Q & A

  • Dollar strength vs lower fuel prices have neutralizing effects.  Will look into revising fuel hedging program but will also keep an eye on how much stronger the dollar gets.
  • Share buyback vs buying back debt:  
    • Being investment-grade credit is very important to RCL
    • Weighted cost of debt:  3.5%
    • Not much tax shield
  • Travel agents vs direct bookings:
    • Quantum has gotten better publicity than any other ship
    • Travel agents critical to attracting 1st time cruisers
    • More and more cruisers are buying directly thanks to internet resources
    • RCL direct bookings cost:  less than the 12-15% of revenues
  • Quantum to China
    • More significant costs
        • Marketing expenditures on grand welcome for Quantum
        • Chic will be transformed into traditional Chinese restaurant
        • Rice will be cooked in large woks -- more expensive products
        • Expanding casino
          • More table games; few slots
          • 2 private gaming rooms
        • Johnny Rockets will be converted to Kung Fu Panda noodle shop
        • Why Quantum didn't consider Southwest China on their itineraries and not just Korea/Japan?
          • For tax reasons and also less port charges.  
          • The trips are short (4-5 days), so not enough time to visit other places
        • Commissions paid to Chinese agents:  similar to US
    • Ships are almost exclusively Mainland Chinese guests  
    • A little more family/multi-generational 
    • 1/3 crew will be Chinese
    • Booking online in China is very low
  • Supply in Caribbean:  have seen stress in Q1 2015
  • Supply stress also in Australia/New Zealand
  • Not focused on macroeconomic trends in Europe
  • Ships that burn MGO fuel have lower ROIC e.g. Millennium, Meridian  
  • Double-Double targets have incorporated much of the additional capex needed to upgrade existing fleet.

Cartoon of the Day: Burn Your Currency. Fall Into Recession. Repeat.

Cartoon of the Day: Burn Your Currency. Fall Into Recession. Repeat. - Abenomics cartoon 11.17.2014

Behold the beauty of Abenomics - a failed #CurrencyBurning central plan that promises more of what doesn't work. In related news, Japan just fell into recession. 

 

Again.


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality

Editor's note: This complimentary research was originally published November 13, 2014 at 07:33 in Financials. For more information on our services click here.

After a two month slide, taxable bonds rebounded posting their first subscription in 8 weeks.

 

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

 

After an exciting month of October whereby over $36 billion alone spilled out from the taxable bond fund category, the latest ICI survey relayed some stability with a $5.0 billion inflow by investors, the first subscription since the week ending September 10th. A post-mortem of the beneficiaries of the October snap redemption shows that broadly bond ETFs hoovered up the most "money in motion," with several select Total Return Funds including the Metropolitan West Total Return Fund (a unit of TCW), BlackRock's flagship fund, and Jeff Gundlach's DoubleLine substantially improving assets-under-management in the month. Interestingly, but not a surprise to us, the Janus Uncontrained Bond Fund, had a very modest benefit and as a result we remain skeptical of the resulting market cap improvement of that company without the support of new assets-under-management (read our JNS research here).

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality - ICI chart12

 

In other survey data, U.S. equity mutual funds put up another worrisome $1.7 billion redemption making it 25 of the past 28 weeks with outflows. We continue to recommend underweight or short positions to those managers with outsized U.S. equities exposure (read our research here). Passive fund flows via ETFs continue to be substantial with a year-to-date high of $17.7 billion into total equity ETFs last week and another inflow into bond ETFs, the 6th straight week of fixed income subscriptions. The blood letting continued specifically in the Materials Sector SPDR with another 19% of assets-under-management alone coming out of that product over the past 5 days. Conversely there has been strength in Utilities (XLU) and the 20+ Treasury ETF (TLT) products with respective inflows improving AUM by 7% and 8% during the week.

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality - ici1

 

 

In the most recent 5 day period ending November 5th, total equity mutual funds put up net outflows with $302 million coming out of the category according to the Investment Company Institute. The composition of the outflow was squarely the result of domestic stock fund redemptions as a $1.7 billion loss more than nullified the $1.4 billion which came into international stock funds. The two equity categories have been polar opposites all year with international stock funds having had inflow in 43 of the past 44 weeks, versus domestic trends which have been very soft with inflow in just 15 weeks of the 44 weeks thus far year-to-date. The running year-to-date weekly average for all equity fund flow continues to decline and now settles at a $1.1 billion inflow, now well below the $3.0 billion weekly average inflow from 2013. 

 

Fixed income mutual funds napped their drawdown schedule of the past 5 weeks putting up inflows in both the taxable bond fund category and also in tax-free munis. Taxable fixed income netted a fresh $5.0 billion in investor money with municipal bond funds putting up a $399 million inflow, making it 42 of 44 weeks with positive subscriptions in tax-free bonds. The 2014 weekly average for fixed income mutual funds now stands at a $985 million weekly inflow, an improvement from 2013's weekly average outflow of $1.5 billion, but still a far cry from the $5.8 billion weekly average inflow from 2012 (our view of the blow off top in bond fund inflow). 

 

ETF results were very strong during the week with substantial inflows in equity funds and decent subscriptions into passive fixed income products. Equity ETFs put up a 2014 year-to-date high subscription with a $17.7 billion inflow which made the $564 million inflow into passive bond products look very modest. The 2014 weekly averages are now a $2.1 billion weekly inflow for equity ETFs and a $1.1 billion weekly inflow for fixed income ETFs. 

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. Exchange traded fund (ETF) information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.   

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from the ICI mutual fund survey and includes the running weekly year-to-date average for 2014 and the weekly quarter-to-date average for 4Q 2014:

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality - ICI chart2

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality - ICI chart3

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality - ICI chart4

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality - ICI chart5

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality - ICI chart6

 

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow Within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from Bloomberg's ETF database (matched to the Wednesday to Wednesday reporting format of the ICI) and the running weekly year-to-date average for 2014 and the weekly quarter-to-date average for 4Q 2014. The third table are the results of the weekly flows into and out of the major market and sector SPDRs:

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality - ICI chart7

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality - ICI chart8

 

Sector and Asset Class Weekly ETF and Year-to-Date Results: In specific callouts, the blood letting continued in the Materials Sector SPDR with another 19% of assets-under-management alone coming out of that product over the past 5 days. Conversely, the Utilities (XLU) and 20+ Treasury ETF (TLT) had respective inflows of 7% and 8% during the week.

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality - ICI chart9

 

 

Net Results:

 

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF trends against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a positive $11.4 billion spread for the week ($17.4 billion of total equity inflow versus the $6.0 billion inflow within fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52 week moving average has been $2.9 billion (more positive money flow to equities), with a 52 week high of $17.7 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52 week low of -$37.5 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week). 

 

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality - ICI chart10

 

Exposures: The weekly data herein is important for the public asset managers with trends in mutual funds and ETFs impacting the companies with the following estimated revenue impact:

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey: Return to Normality - ICI chart11 

 

 

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 

203-562-6500 

jcasteleyn@hedgeye.com 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

203-562-6500

jsteiner@hedgeye.com

 


European Banking Monitor: Widening in Sovereign Swaps

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email 

 

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European Financial CDS - Swaps mostly tightened in Europe last week

 

European Banking Monitor: Widening in Sovereign Swaps - chart1 euro financials CDS

 

Sovereign CDS – European Sovereign Swaps mostly widened over last week. German sovereign swaps widened by 1.3% (0 bps to 20 ) and Portuguese sovereign swaps widened by 25.2% (42 bps to 211).

 

European Banking Monitor: Widening in Sovereign Swaps - chart2 sovereign CDS

 

European Banking Monitor: Widening in Sovereign Swaps - chart3 sovereign CDS

 

European Banking Monitor: Widening in Sovereign Swaps - chart4 sovereign CDS

 

Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 1 bps to 10 bps.

 

European Banking Monitor: Widening in Sovereign Swaps - chart5 euribor OIS spread

 

Matthew Hedrick 

Associate

 

Ben Ryan 

Analyst

 


Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker

Note: Using the z-score in the tables below as a coefficient of variation for standard error helps us flag the relative market positioning of the commodities in the CRB Index. It is not intended as a predictive signal for the reversion to trailing twelve month historical averages. For week-end price data, please refer to “Commodities: Weekly Quant” published at the end of the previous week. Feel free to ping us for additional color.    

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1.       CFTC Net Futures and Options Positioning CRB Index: The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases “Commitments of Traders Reports” at 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday. The release usually includes data from the previous Tuesday (Net Positions as of Tuesday Close), and includes the net positions of “non-commercial” futures and options participants. A “Non-Commercial” market participant is defined as a “speculator.” We observe the weekly marginal changes in the overall positioning of “non-commercial” futures and options positions to assess the directionally-biased capitulation risk among those with large, speculative positions.

 

The SUGAR, SILVER, AND SOYBEANS markets experienced the most BULLISH relative positioning change in the CRB week-over-week

The ORANGE JUICE, GOLD, AND WHEAT markets experienced the most BEARISH relative positioning change in the CRB week-over-week

 

Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker - CFTC Sentiment

 

2.       Spot – Second Month Basis Differential: Measures the market expectation for forward looking prices in the near-term.

  • The CORN, NATURAL GAS, AND SUGAR markets are positioned for HIGHER PRICES near-term
  • The COCOA, HEATING OIL, AND RBOB GASOLINE markets are positioned for LOWER PRICES near-term

Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker - spot 2nd month basis

 

3.       Spot – 1 Year Basis Differential: Measures the market expectation for forward-looking prices between spot and the respective contract expiring 1-year later.

 

  • The CORN, SUGAR, AND ORANGE JUICE markets are positioned for HIGHER PRICES in 1-year  
  • The LEAN HOGS, NATURAL GAS, AND LIVE CATTLE markets are positioned for LOWER PRICES in 1-year  

Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker - spot 1yr basisvf

 

4.       Open Interest: Aggregate open interest measures the amount of opened positions in all actively traded futures contract months. Open interest can be thought of as “naked” or “directionally-biased” contracts as opposed to hedgers scalping and providing liquidity. Most of the open interest is created from large speculators or participants who are either: 1) Producers/sellers of the physical commodity hedging their cash market exposure or 2) Large speculators who are directionally-biased on price.

 

Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker - open interest         

 

 

Ben Ryan

Analyst

            


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