We came away from our meeting at HQ incrementally upbeat about DKS' sales/GM trajectory and and levers it has to pull ahead of the Street's number for the quarter and year. This is not earth shattering, as DKS was one of the few retailers linked to this space that registered a positive inflection this past quarter. But our sense is that the trends have continued (supported by outperformance of ths sporting goods channel in third party market share data).
Looking out a bit further, it is clear that DKS would like to resume a more normalized mid-teens square footage growth rate but will not do so until the real estate development pipeline begins to build. In the interim, second-use sites and one-off real estate acquisitions are likely. We were particularly intrigued to learn that less than 10% of its leases come up for renewal over each of the next 4 years (DKS has a 10 yr target duration for its portfolio). We just heard from Finish Line that 40% of its leases are due within 18 months. Yes, the box economics are different between the two as FINL averages about a 5-year duration. But that definitely makes us question if DKS will benefit from the current property cost environment as much as others. In other words, has its aggressive plan to lock up property terms duriing the '-03--'07 bubble coming back to haunt them?
Here are some other notables...
- One of the more notable comments of the meeting was in response to a question about the macro environment and its current impact on the industry to which mgmt responded something to the effect of “from our perspective, we would have preferred for the rebound to have come later, it would have resulted in further shakeout within the industry.”
- status of TSA’s financial health unknown within the industry
- continue to add stores at same relative pace to prior years
- not seeing any changes with in-store environment or promotional cadence
- only competitor with similar box size out west (~50k sq. ft.) – most comparable competitor
- Academy Sports: 110 stores – 73 in TX
- 80-100k sq. ft. footprint
- Everyday low price
- Moving eastward into TN, NC, KY (overlapping more with HIBB)
- Approaching $2Bn in annual sales
- Hibbetts: much smaller format, not competing much if at all head-to-head
Market /Regional Trends
- All regions performing similarly, no standouts to note.
- Target market size has/will not change
- not considering utilizing a smaller format to pursue smaller markets (i.e. HIBB no interest)
- minimum box size remains ~40k sq. ft.
- Westward growth – have secured 10 of 32 Joes locations
- (6 to open in Oct, 4 in 2010)
- Was watching Joes for 2-3 years before sites came on market.
- Chicks acq primarily driven by box size – have built 2 additional DKS stores around these in CA
- Regions of greatest growth opportunity:
- FL, TX, AZ, CA, Pacific Northwest
- Will build out in 1-5 location groupings, not 10+ chunks
- Priority towards vacant, build out (Greenfield), and second use (in that order)
- Activity from a developer standpoint still very slow – is capping rate of growth via Greenfield opporty’s
- Barring further filings, upside to expectations of 24 stores in 2010 is limited
- Co-tennancy remains key factor in growth plans. Won’t open sites unless tenants in strips are preferred retailers (i.e
BBY, BBBY, TGT, WMT, etc…)
- Mall 20% (~75-80k sq ft), off-mall 80% (~50k sq. ft)
- Unlikely to see any additional specialty concept acquisitions in near-term.
- Will need to add a West Coast distribution facility in 2 years to support expansion.
- Ability to negotiate rents is greater with new build outs with greater upfront capital commitment from DKS
- Don’t have a meaningful % of portfolio coming up for renewal over the next 4yrs, renewals become significant after then
- Typical lease is 10yr term with 4-5 options at 5yrs each. ($0.50 bump in yr 5)
- Joes slightly different – DKS put up more capital upfront that usual to get them up and running faster
- Much more favorable rents offset higher capital costs.
- $870k of CapEx / store
- $800-$900k of inventory expenses
- $200-$250k of opening costs
= ~$2mm cash investment
- Expectation of cash on cash returns of 50%+ by Yr2
- On ~$9-$10mm in sales (~10%+ FCF margin)
- Jordan shop-in-shops and yoga concepts are past testing phase and in the process of being rolled out into more stores
(Jordan in 60+)
- Self service concept test in footwear has been a success (see pictures below), being rolled out in all new stores, retrofit
will happen overtime.
- Essentially inventory made available on floor – has enhanced customer satisfaction and conversion
- Not translating into meaningful labor savings (has been largely reallocated in store)
Figure 1: New self-service concept in the Footwear department.
- The North Face is now in ~80% of all DKS stores
- While nearing full penetration, there is room to flex footprint within the store
- DKS growing Nike ACG private brand within store (competes directly with TNF)
- Product mix (hardline 50%, apparel 30%, footwear 16%) unlikely to change materially
- Hardline moving away from bigger ticket items (weights, machines, etc.) towards exercise balls & bands
- Private label and private brand continues to grow (last cited as 15% of total sales back in 2006)
- Both have similar margins ~600-800bps better than product being replaced
- Private label direct sourced
- When asked if savings from sourcing will be reflected in pricing, commented that more likely to drop to the bottom line
- Over the last 12 months, DKS has had more opportunity to purchase branded off-price product
- Less in the way of exclusive product this year compared to last
Guns & Ammo
- Guns and ammo has buoyed several players in the industry – GMTN was “thrown a lifeline”
- Benefit will be anniversaried 11/15
- Traffic and demand remains strong to date
- Did not specify what % of sales G&A accounted for
- Stressed that dot.com was very much in initial stages of growth – “really in startup mode”
- Expected to be neutral to the P&L in 2009, positive in 2010
- $25mm+ investment in F09
- Trends are improving visibly
- Has been undoubtedly the most significant drag on GMs
- Pointed out several times that clearance activity related to merchandise errors in golf will be complete in 3Q and the associated margin drag will end immediately as inventory is cleaned up.
- Considered an attractive growth engine
- Own ~20% of golf market; ~4x greater than next largest competitor (Golfsmith at ~5%)
- Vendor pricing advantageous due to size and stability relative to Mom&Pops
- 3 key issues related to GG integration have been:
- Macro environment
- beginning to stabilize
- Competitive (historically adversarial) cultures
- DKS mgmt took control of Golf Galaxy as of 1/09
- too much private label; balancing with more private brand
- reducing overall inventory
- Greatest allocation of spend is tabs – will continue to be
- Overall, print continues to shrink – moving towards direct to consumer (e.g. mobile, online, etc.)
- Using more spot network TV advertising, but not material to spend.
- DKS: no plan to be acquisitive over next 18-24 months
- When asked about interest in other specialty brands, assured there is no interest – commented to the effect that following
the recent integration of both Chicks and GG they “could use a breather”
- Most significant drag on gross margins (Golf Galaxy & Chicks integration and promotional environment) beginning to ease
- SG&A plans largely fixed for balance of 2009 and 2010 with investments in dot.com, new HQ, and merchandising and
- Plans to get inventory turns back to 2000-2002 levels over the next 3-years
- Considering a realignment of executive compensation tied to specific inventory turns/mgmt targets
- DKS continuing to push for and get better terms from vendors
Figure 2: KSWS prominent end cap display.