THE WEEK AHEAD

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 28th of September through the 2nd of October is full of critical releases and events. The market will be impacted by several key non-economic factors as well next week: China will be celebrating the 60th Anniversary of the PBOC while the German National Election results will be digested on Monday. Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.  

 

 

Monday Sept. 28

 

North America

The Treasury will auction 4 week, 3 month and 6 month Bills at 1 PM.

 

Europe

In the UK, Nationwide house prices for September will be released on Monday morning, as will September Italian Consumer Confidence.

 

Asia

On Monday morning Taiwanese August Leading Economic Index levels will be released while in Japan August CPI as well as September Tokyo specific CPI, will be announced at 7:30 PM.  

 

 

Tuesday Sept. 29

 

North America

Case-Shiller Home prices for July will be released at 9 AM on Tuesday, followed by Conference Board Consumer Confidence levels for September at 10 AM and USDA September Agricultural prices at 3 PM. Weekly ICSC, Redbook and ABC Consumer Comfort index data will also be released at normal scheduled times. 

 

Europe

Tuesday brings a slew of critical economic data points for Europe. At 5 AM Bloomberg Eurozone PMI as well as Confidence Measures (Consumer, Economic, Retail and Construction) for September will be released.  Also on Tuesday morning German Import Prices for August, as well as Italian Business Confidence and Spanish CPI for September will be published. In the UK, third release GDP as well as second release Trade Data, Government Spending and Fixed capital Formation for Q2 are scheduled as are BOE Mortgage and M4 levels for August. The UK’s DMO will be Auctioning 3.75 billion GBP in Gilt due in 2022.

 

Asia

Hong Kong Retail Sales for August will be published on Tuesday morning while in the evening Japanese industrial production and Shipments for August and September PMI will be announced. Also in the evening, Retail Trade and Building Approval data for August will be released in Australia as will South Korean Current Account balance levels.

 

 

Wednesday Sept. 30

 

North America

Third Report Q2 GDP and Corporate Profits will be released at 8:30 AM on Wednesday while Chicago PMI readings for September will be issued at 9:45 AM. Weekly MBA Mortgage application data will be released at the normal time as will EIA oil gas and distillate stock levels. In Canada, August raw Material and Industrial Product Prices for August and July GDP by Industry and Average Earnings will be announced.

 

Europe

French and Italian PPI for August, as well as Italian CPI for September are scheduled for release on Wednesday morning as will September Eurozone Flash CPI. German Unemployment data for September will be published and the German government will be auctioning 2 year Schatz.

 

Asia

On Wednesday morning Japanese Housing Starts and Constructions as well as Thai Trade and Production data for August will be released. In the evening, South Korean Trade data for September and Japanese Retail Sales for August will be announced. Chinese PMI for September is scheduled for release at 10:30 PM.

 

 

Thursday Oct. 1

 

North America

At 8:30 AM on Thursday PCE and personal Income data for August will be released, while ISM Manufacturing levels for September as well as Construction Spending and pending Home sales for August will be published at 10AM. Domestic Car Sales will also be announced. Weekly Initial Claims, M2 and EIA Natural gas stocks data will be released at the normally scheduled times. The treasury will announce a reopen on 10 year notes, 10 year TIPS and 30 year Bonds at 11 AM. Finally, at 10 AM Chairman Bernanke will testify on regulation reform.

 

Europe

On Thursday Morning Reuters PMI-Manufacturing for September will be released for Germany, France, Italy and The Eurozone in aggregate, while in the UK CIPS PMI will be released. German Retail Sales for August will be announced at 2 AM. France and Spain will be auctioning Treasuries during the day while in the UK the DMO will be taking 2.25 billion in Gilts due in 2030 to market.

 

Asia

October First is the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic and Chinese markets will be closed. September CPI for South Korea and August CPI for Thailand are scheduled for release on Thursday as will Indian Trade data for August (along with weekly WPI data). In the evening PCE, Income and Unemployment data for August will be released in Japan.

 

 

Friday Oct. 2

 

North America

The Labor Department will release September unemployment, Average hourly Wage, Non-Farm and Manufacturing Payroll at 8:30AM. August factory Orders will be released at 10 AM.

 

Europe

Eurozone PPI for August will be released on Friday morning as will UK CIPS Construction PMI.

 

Asia

The continuing celebration in China and the mid-autumn festival in Korea will leave markets closed in both nations on Friday. September PMI will be announced in Singapore.  

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more