prev

Macro Notebook 11/10: Japan | UST10YR | Divergences

Hedgeye Research Director Daryl Jones shares the top three things in Keith's macro notebook this morning.


LEISURE LETTER (11/10/2014)

TIckers: LVS, MPEL, PENN, GLPI, H

EVENTS

  • Nov 10
    • CZR Q3 earnings 4:30 pm , pin 20797507
    • SNOW FYQ1 earnings 5pm
  • Nov 11
    • Galaxy Entertainment Q3 earnings: 3:15am
    • Genting Singapore Q3 earnings:  5am
    • Stations Casino Q3 earnings: 4:30pm
  • Nov 13-16
    • Macau Grand Prix
    • Hedgeye Cruise Pricing Survey
  • Nov 16-18
    • Quantum of the Seas investor event
  • Nov 18
    • 2nd Philly License decision

COMPANY NEWS

LVS/GENTING – Singapore Casinos Impacted by VIP Fall –  Sheldon Adelson has accused Genting's RWS of relying on overly generous incentives and credit to entice big money players.  Around half of that VIP business comes from customers from China, which is in the midst of an economic slowdown, while a crackdown on graft now in its second year is making it harder for wealthy Chinese to take money out of the country and discouraging conspicuous consumption. Visitors from China were down 30% to 871,000 in the first half of 2014, according to Singapore's tourism board.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL3N0SJ4IF20141109?irpc=932

Takeaway:  Whether they are or are not buying the business, we believe Genting's VIP business remains in better shape than MBS's.

 

CWN:AU – James Packer announced London banker Robert Rankin, currently Deutsche Bank’s co-head of corporate banking and securities and head of corporate finance, will become co-chairman of the publicly-listed Crown Resorts and chief executive of Mr Packer’s private investment company, Consolidated Press Holdings. 

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/packer-appoints-london-money-man-as-his-2ic/story-fnkltfm0-1227116658281?nk=a68e8c47c8b555d293e411144cc41ebf

Takeaway: Mr. Packer hiring a key banker. Could a bigger strategic move be in Mr. Packer's future?

   

MCP:PM & MPEL – Melco Crown Resorts Corp (Philippines), which in December will soft open City of Dreams Manila, hired nearly 2,200 workers in the third quarter of 2014.  The increase in pre-opening costs was mainly attributable to increase in staff costs by PHP1.3 billion, “which was in line with the increase in headcount,” said Melco Crown Philippines.

http://www.ggrasia.com/melco-crown-philippines-costs-spike-on-recruitment/ 

Takeaway:  Labor costs will be scrutinized once the property soft opens in December

 

PENN & GLPI –  Judge Eliza Ovrom ruled Friday the Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission acted within its authority when it granted a state gaming license to the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Sioux City. In her 25-page ruling Friday, Ovrom dismissed all of Belle's claims, saying the company failed to prove the IRGC made errors or abused its broad discretionary powers to regulate legalized gaming in the state.

http://siouxcityjournal.com/news/local/judge-rules-for-irgc-in-argosy-casino-case/article_8d4563ab-ec3c-5258-95a3-daf281ad4601.html

Takeaway: While this would appear to be the end of the judicial process, something tells me PENN is not finished appealing their case.

 

H – announced it acquired its partners’ 92% interest in the 491-room Hyatt Regency Lost Pines Resort and Spa in Austin/Bastrop, Texas, for approximately $143 million. The Company also assumed approximately $65 million of property-level debt. The total price, inclusive of debt, implies a valuation of approximately $450,000 per key. The transaction closed on November 6.

Takeaway: Would appear a fair price, We believe near 14x EBITDA, given hotel's quoted ADRs of $260-$380/night and 491 guest rooms, more than 60,000 square feet of indoor meeting space and over 240,000 square feet of outdoor function space with pavilions and an amphitheater.

 

Insider Transactions:

BEE – CFO Diane M. Morefield sold 100,000 shares of the company’s stock on Friday, November 7 at an average price of $12.59 and now directly owns 83,074 shares.

 

BEE – COO Richard J. Moreau sold 76,424 shares of the company's stock on Thursday, November 6 at an average price of $12.64 and now directly owns 125,866 shares.

Takeaway: Despite telling us and other shareholders their equity is undervalued during meeting at NAREIT, insiders are selling. 

 

HT President Neil Shah sold 500,000 shares of stock on November 6 and 7, at at an average price of $7.34 and now directly owns 1,988,742 shares. 

 

LVS – EVP Ira H. Raphaelson sold 8,815 shares of the stock on Monday, November 3 at an average price of $62.35 and now directly owns 12,185 shares

Takeaway:  It’s purely a tax sale. Shares sold to pay taxes in connection with the vesting of restricted stock units (21k shares) granted under the Issuer's 2004 Equity Award Plan

INDUSTRY NEWS

Japan Tables Gaming Legislation – Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party dropped plans to pass a bill to legalize the principle of casinos in the country in the current parliamentary session. The decision was mainly due to lack of time for deliberation as the current session of the Diet ends on November 30 due in also in part to the resignation of two Cabinet ministers in October. 

http://www.ggrasia.com/japans-ruling-parties-shelve-vote-on-casino-enabling-bill/

Takeaway: Already well telegraphed

 

Macau Junket Operators Selling Their Flats – Property agents have noted a recent cooling down in property investment sentiment in Macau with cases of VIP gaming promoters offloading their luxury flats at discounted prices to cash up. Ricacorp Properties Ltd and Greatest Properties Ltd indicated they have observed “a few” cases of VIP gaming promoters offloading their luxury flats – mostly secondhand unfurnished flats in Cotai and the northern Macau Peninsula - with some offering up to 10% discount on the sale price.

http://macaubusinessdaily.com/Property/Cash-king

Takeaway: Possibly a signal that the tough times have legs

 

Macau International Airport Traffic –  handled over 460,000 passengers in October, +12% YoY. The growth in airport passengers in October was partly boosted by the traffic brought by China’s National Day holiday in the first week of the month, for which CAM noted that the airport handled a total of 74,000 passengers from October 1-5, an increase of 17% compared to the same period last year. Macau International Airport Co Ltd says the number of takeoffs and landings the airport handled also rose by 12%, to about 4,600.

http://macaubusinessdaily.com/Business/and-away

Takeaway:  At least the airport is doing well

 

Cyprus Set to Submit Casino Legislation – A draft law that seeks to open Cyprus’ first integrated casino resort is due to be submitted to the Cabinet before the end of November. Minister of Energy George Lakkotrypis confirmed that a discussion launched last month with political parties and government bodies over the creation of a casino has been completed. The main casino is required to house at least 500 rooms, 100 gaming tables and 1,000 slot machines, and the operator will be able to select the district to build the resort. The annual fee to the state is €2.5m for the first four years, increasing to €5m for years four to eight, after which the rate may be reviewed by the Cyprus Gaming and Casino Supervision Authority. In addition, the operator will be taxed a further 15pc of gross gaming revenue every month.

http://www.innovategaming.com/cyprus-casino-law

Takeaway: Not likely to draw interest from U.S. based gaming operators due to the islands unstable political environment. 

 

Atlantic City to Lose United AIrlines – United Airlines has announced it will end flights to Atlantic City from its Chicago and Houston hubs effective Dec. 3.

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/united-airlines-to-end-houston-chicago-flights-to-a-c/article_d92afffe-669c-11e4-86c5-43e960d75228.html

Takeaway: Could Spirit Airlines move to increase service to Atlantic City with United Airlines departure?

 

Revel's $32 Million Real Estate Tax Bill – Judge Gloria Burns ruled Atlantic City could pursue a $32 million unpaid 2014 tax debt. The most likely manner for it to be paid is when Toronto-based Brookfield Asset Management completes its $110 million purchase of the casino from bankruptcy court. City Attorney Jason Holt said a portion of the proceeds from the sale would be set aside in an escrow account to settle the tax debt. If the deal does not close before early December, the city could sell a tax sale certificate, in which an investor in effect buys a lien against the property and pays the taxes due on it. The investor gets paid when the property owner pays off the tax debt; if that doesn't happen, the investor can foreclose in two years.

http://www.newsday.com/news/region-state/judge-lets-atlantic-city-seek-32m-revel-tax-bill-1.9595952

Takeaway: The true cost of ownership is quickly rising beyond the $110 million purchase price.

 

Mohegan Sun Considers Expansion – Kevin Brown, Chairman of the Mohegan Tribal Council, the tribal management board that oversees the Mohegan Sun Casino in Montville said he welcomes an overture made by the Deputy Speaker of the Connecticut House of Representatives about expanding casino gaming operations in Connecticut. While Brown said it would be premature to identify any sites that the Mohegan Tribal Council might be interested in considering, he acknowledged that with one of the three casino gaming locations in Massachusetts being built in Springfield, it would make sense to consider a location in the northern part of Connecticut. 

http://www.nhregister.com/business/20141108/mohegan-sun-mulls-expanding-connecticut-gaming-operations

Takeaway: Increased competition and further cannibalization - when will gaming operators learn more boxes isn't the answer?

 

Port of Vancouver – Port Metro Vancouver’s 2014 Alaska cruise season ended in October with strong numbers on par with the 2013 season. The 2014 season saw 812,095 passengers on 243 calls by 29 cruise ships.  In Vancouver, the cruise business generates approximately 283,000 hotel night stays, and over 440,000 in British Columbia, generating some 6,000 direct and indirect jobs. Predictions for the 2015 cruise season estimate ship call and passenger numbers to be similar to 2014.

http://en.portnews.ru/news/190143/

Takeaway:  Alaska has made a nice recovery after a subpar start to 2014 summer.  Early indications show 2015 Alaskan business should grow as well.

MACRO

China Economic Data

Trade balance $45.41B vs $42.5B consensus and $31B in September

Exports +11.6% y/y vs +10.5% consensus and +15.3% in September

Imports +4.6% y/y vs +5.0% consensus and +7.0% in September

CPI +1.6% y/y vs +1.6% consensus and +1.8% in September

PPI (2.2%) y/y vs (2.0%) consensus and (1.8%) in September

 

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.

Takeaway:  We're seeing bottoms up slowing in Europe cruise pricing in our monthly survey. Europe has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely. Following CCL's earnings release, we recently turned negative on those stocks based on the negative European thesis. 

 

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative on consumer spending and believes in muted inflation, a Quad4 set-up.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.


Monday Mashup: Covering CHUY

Monday Mashup: Covering CHUY - 111

 

Closing Best Idea Short

We added Chuy's Holdings (CHUY) to our Best Ideas list as a short on 10/28/14 at $31.31 per share.  Since this time, 2015 EPS estimates have been revised down from $0.97 to $0.80 and the stock has acted accordingly (down ~30).  Chuy's may still have issues hitting these revised estimates, but we believe downside from here is limited over the intermediate-term.  With this update, we are removing short CHUY from our Best Ideas list.

 

Recent Notes

11/03/14 Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More

11/04/14 BLMN: Notable Progress, Still Bullish

11/05/14 CHUY: Look Out Below

11/05/14 BKW: Quick Recap

11/07/14 Strong Restaurant Sales, Traffic, Employment Data

 

Events This Week

Monday, November 10th

  • MCD October Sales and Revenue Release

Thursday, November 13th

  • PLKI earnings call 9:00am EST
  • COSI earnings call 5:00pm EST
  • FRSH earnings call 5:00pm EST

 

Chart of the Day

Monday Mashup: Covering CHUY - 2

 

Recent News Flow

Monday, November 3rd

  • SONC downgraded to neutral at Longbow Research.
  • BWLD announced its selection of TBWA/Chiat/Day as its advertising agency of record.
  • DFRG announced plans to open a fourth Del Frisco's Grille in North Texas in the summer 2015 and to relocate Del Frisco's Double Eagle Steak House from North Dallas to McKinney & Olive in uptown Dallas in 2016.
  • JMBA entered into a new distribution agreement with Gordon Food Service in order to continue service, productivity and cost improvement.

Tuesday, November 4th

  • JMBA announced an accelerating refranchising initiative in CA that will involve close to 114 Jamba Juice store locations, primarily in the San Francisco, Sacramento and San Diego markets.
  • JMBA also announced a $25 million share repurchase program.

Wednesday, November 5th

  • THI announced the Board of Directors declared a $0.32 dividend payable to shareholder of record as of November 20, 2014.
  • SONC announced the opening of its brand new Culinary Innovation Center, where its culinary team will test ideas, equipment, recipes and products.  The facility is an important part of Sonic's overall growth strategy, which calls for the development of 1,000 new drive-ins in 10 years.
  • DPZ downgraded to hold at Miller Tabak with a $90 PT.
  • DFRG announced the opening of its newest Del Frisco's Grille in Tampa, Florida.  It is the 15th Grille and 45th restaurant overall for Del Frisco's Group.
  • DRI announced it has retained Korn Ferry, a leading global executive search team, to aid it in its recruitment of the company's next CEO.  Both internal and external candidates will be considered.
  • KKD announced a development agreement with Orion Group, for 20 new stores in Bangladesh over the next five years.
 

Sector Performance

The XLY (-0.1%) underperformed the SPX (+0.7%) last week.  However, both casual dining and quick service stocks, in aggregate, outperformed the SPX.

 

Monday Mashup: Covering CHUY - 3

 

Monday Mashup: Covering CHUY - 4

 

XLY Quantitative Setup

From a quantitative setup, the sector remains bearish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.

 

Monday Mashup: Covering CHUY - 5

 

Casual Dining Restaurants

Monday Mashup: Covering CHUY - 6

Monday Mashup: Covering CHUY - 7

 

Quick Service Restaurants

Monday Mashup: Covering CHUY - 8

Monday Mashup: Covering CHUY - 9

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE

Takeaway: Our Risk Monitor shows a roughly even mix of positives and negatives across all three durations at the moment.

Current Ideas:

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 19 2 

 

This Week's Thoughts:

The XLF tacked on another +1.3% gain last week, bringing the month-over-month change to +6.1%. Most of the risk landscape showed little change on the week. High yield backed up 10 bps to 5.92% but remains lower on the month by 13 bps. Commodities continued their downward slide, as the CRB Index shed another 1.5% on the week. The big mover among US CDS was Genworth. Genworth swaps rose 247 bps w/w to 406 bps on the announcement that a review of its claims reserves and goodwill would result in a combined charge of over a billion dollars pre-tax.

 

Looking ahead, there's a roughly even mix of red/green on our heat map snapshot table below across the three different durations. On the plus side, the labor market continues to show steady progress and expectations are rising that we could finally be nearing a point where labor market slack is low enough for wage inflation to take hold. This is the factor that turns the Fed from dovish to hawkish on rates in a post-QE world. Second, the Fed just released its 4Q14 Senior Loan Officer Survey, which showed no inflection in the prevailing trends: loan spreads and underwriting standards are both still easing, on the margin, and borrowers continue to show increased loan demand. Inflections in these indicators have historically led or coincided with turning points in the credit cycle. 

 

Financial Risk Monitor Summary

 

 • Short-term(WoW): Negative / 3 of 12 improved / 4 out of 12 worsened / 5 of 12 unchanged

 

 • Intermediate-term(WoW): Negative / 4 of 12 improved / 4 out of 12 worsened / 4 of 12 unchanged

 

 • Long-term(WoW): Positive / 2 of 12 improved / 1 out of 12 worsened / 9 of 12 unchanged

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 15

 

1. U.S. Financial CDS -  Swaps widened for 16 out of 27 domestic financial institutions. Genworth (GNW) was the big mover on the week, where swaps rose 247 bps w/w to 406 bps. The news reflects the company's announcement that it conducted a review of its Active Life Reserves and found them to be deficient by $531mn pre-tax. On top of that, the company simultaneously revealed that a similar review of its goodwill found the need to recognize an impairment of $517mn. The stock dropped ~40% from $14 to $8.40 on the news.

 

Tightened the most WoW: COF, ACE, MMC

Widened the most WoW: GNW, PRU, CB

Tightened the most WoW: TRV, CB, MTG

Widened the most MoM: GNW, MET, PRU

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 1

 

2. European Financial CDS - Swaps mostly tightened in Europe last week though were little changed on balance. In fact, on both a w/w and m/m basis EU bank swaps show little change at the moment. The stocks have been a bit more volatile as the average (and median) stock price change was down 3% for the week. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 2

 

3. Asian Financial CDS - Chinese bank swaps were wider on the week by an average of 5 bps, but remain modestly tighter on a m/m basis. Elsewhere in Asia, bank swaps were little changed.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 17

 

4. Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps were mixed on the week with Portuguese swaps tightening 40 bps to 169 bps while Spanish swaps widened by 7 bps to 101 bps. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 18

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 3

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 4

 

5. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates rose 10.1 bps last week, ending the week at 5.92% versus 5.82% the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 5

 

6. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index rose 2.0 points last week, ending at 1878.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 6

 

7. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread fell 1.5 basis points last week, ending the week at 20.9 bps this week versus last week’s print of 22.41 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 7

 

8. CRB Commodity Price Index – The CRB index fell -1.5%, ending the week at 271 versus 275 the prior week. As compared with the prior month, commodity prices have decreased -2.1% We generally regard changes in commodity prices on the margin as having meaningful consumption implications.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 8

 

9. Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 2 bps to 11 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 9

 

10. Chinese Interbank Rate (Shifon Index) –  The Shifon Index was unchanged at 2.56% last week. The Shifon Index measures banks’ overnight lending rates to one another, a gauge of systemic stress in the Chinese banking system.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 10

 

11. Chinese Steel – Steel prices in China rose 0.7% last week, or 21 yuan/ton, to 3056 yuan/ton. We use Chinese steel rebar prices to gauge Chinese construction activity, and, by extension, the health of the Chinese economy.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 12

 

12. 2-10 Spread – Last week the 2-10 spread tightened to 180 bps, -5 bps tighter than a week ago. We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 13

 

13. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 1.0% upside to TRADE resistance and 3.9% downside to TRADE support.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: OUTLOOK STABLE - 14

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

 


Japan, UST 10YR and Market Divergences

Client Talking Points

JAPAN

The Nikkei is down -0.6% (down for the 2nd day in 3) as the Yen stopped going down (+0.5% vs. USD to 114.01). Risk ranges for both the Nikkei (14,773-17539) and the Yen (111.16-117.24) are wacky wide now – should lead to plenty of macro volatility.

UST 10YR

The UST 10YR Yield is down hard on the jobs report and down again to 2.29% this morning after trading 10-12bps higher into jobs day on hopes that the U.S. isn’t slowing like the rest of the world is (it is). Staying with long the Long Bond (TLT) and bond proxies as that’s where the fundamental performance is.

DIVERGENCES

Big divergences  were everywhere in global equities last week – Dow +1.1% vs. Russell flat; Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -0.1% vs. Consumer Staples (XLP) +2.2%; Hang Seng -1.9% vs. Nikkei +2.8%; and Emerging Markets down another -2.4% on the MSCI index and -4.5% on the LATAM side.

Asset Allocation

CASH 70% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 27% INTL CURRENCIES 3%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
EDV

d

The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). U.S. real GDP growth is unlikely to come in anywhere in the area code of consensus projections of 3-plus percent. And it is becoming clear to us that market participants are interpreting the Fed’s dovish shift as signaling cause for concern with respect to the growth outlook. We remain on other side of Consensus Macro positions (bearish on Oil, bullish on Treasuries, bearish on SPX) and still have high conviction in our biggest macro call of 2014 - that U.S. growth would slow and bond yields fall in kind.

TLT

We continue to think long-term interest rates are headed in the direction of both reported growth and growth expectations – i.e. lower. In light of that, we encourage you to remain long of the long bond. The performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities should continue to widen over the next two to three months. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove. We certainly hope you had the Long Bond (TLT) on versus the Russell 2000 (short side) as the performance divergence in being long #GrowthSlowing hit its widest for 2014 YTD (ex-reinvesting interest).

RH

Restoration Hardware remains our Retail Team’s highest-conviction long idea. We think that most parts of the thesis are at least acknowledged by the market (category growth, real estate expansion), but people are absolutely missing how all the pieces are coming together to drive such outsized earnings growth over an extremely long duration. The punchline of our real estate analysis is that a) RH stores could get far bigger than even the RH bulls seem to think, b) Aside from reconfiguring 66 existing markets, there’s another 19 markets we identified where the spending rate on home furnishings by people making over $100k in income suggests that RH should expand to these markets with Design Galleries, and c) the availability and economics on large properties for all these markets are far better than people think. The consensus is looking for long-term earnings growth of 28% -- we’re looking for 45%.  

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

GREECE: leads losers -2% to -23% YTD #crashing

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

I found out that if you are going to win games, you had better be ready to adapt.

-Scotty Bowman

STAT OF THE DAY

Euro (vs USD) is down another -0.6% on the week to -9.4% year-to-date.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 10, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 79 points or 3.20% downside to 1967 and 0.69% upside to 2046.                                           

                                                                                    

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.79 from 1.80
  • VIX closed at 13.12 1 day percent change of -4.02%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 10am: Fed Labor Mkt Conditions Index, Oct.
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 4W bills
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $24b 3M bills, $28b 6M bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $26b 3Y notes
  • 5:10pm: Fed’s Rosengren speaks at Washington and Lee University, Lexington, Va.

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama travels to China, Myanmar, Australia through Nov. 16
    • Sec. of State John Kerry meets with former EU High Representative Catherine Ashton, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Oman ahead of Nov. 24 deadline to reach deal preventing Iran from developing weapons
    • Sifma conference: SEC Chairman Mary Jo White, 8:40am; Stephen Luparello, director SEC’s trading and markets division, 2:15pm
    • 9:30am: Supreme Court issues orders on pending cases

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Boeing Wins $8.5b SMBC Aviation Order on Asian Jet Demand
  • Dendreon Starts Voluntary Chapter 11 Proceedings
  • Berkshire Profit Slips After Buffett’s Tesco Investment Falters
  • Obama Accepts Blame for Results of U.S. Midterm Elections
  • Obama Administration Offers Preview for 2015 Health Plans
  • Obama Faulted for Having Fewer Experts Guiding China Policy
  • Paulson Event Fund Said to Plunge 14% in October as Loss Worsens
  • Merck’s 4-Week Hepatitis C Regimen Fails to Beat Gilead Drug
  • American Attendants Reject Contract in Defeat for Merged Airline
  • Takata Falls to Five-Year Low After Calls for Criminal Probe
  • Time Warner Approached Ten About Potential Takeover: AFR
  • Uber Said in Early Talks to Raise $1 Billion to Fund Growth
  • U.S. Gasoline Falls to $2.9421 a Gallon in Lundberg Survey
  • Bank of Russia Cuts 2015 Economic Forecast to Show No Growth
  • China Factory-Gate Prices Decline for Record 32nd Month
  • Disney’s ‘Big Hero 6’ Outdraws ‘Interstellar’ at Box Office
  • SHV Raises Nutreco Takeover Bid to Fend Off Cargill Interest
  • Transocean Posts Qtr Net Loss $6.12/Shr on Goodwill Impairment
  • GM Ordered New Switches Before Recall, E-Mails Show: WSJ
  • BARRON’S ROUNDUP: Telecom Fight, J.C. Penney, Leucadia, Kellogg

 

AM EARNS:

    • 3D Systems (DDD) 8:30am, $0.17
    • Dean Foods (DF) 8am, ($0.13)
    • Gogo (GOGO) 7:30am, ($0.26)
    • Quicksilver (KWK) 7:30am, ($0.09)
    • Rayonier (RYN) 8am, $0.19
    • Sotheby’s (BID) 8am, ($0.35)
    • Turquoise Hill (TRQ CN) Bef-mkt, $0.02
    • WhiteWave Foods (WWAV) 8am, $0.26

 

PM EARNS:

    • Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) 4:01pm, ($0.22)
    • Atwood Oceanics (ATW) 4:49pm, $1.55
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) 4:01pm, ($1.47)
    • Cumulus Media (CMLS) 4pm, $0.07
    • Forest Oil (FST) 5:08pm, ($0.06)
    • Halcon Resources (HK) 4:15pm, $0.06
    • Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) 4:15pm, ($0.14)
    • Inter Parfums (IPAR) 4:05pm, $0.36
    • Legacy Oil + Gas (LEG CN) Aft-Mkt, C$0.09
    • NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP) 4:30pm, $0.02
    • ParkerVision (PRKR) 4:01pm, $0.01
    • PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 4:09pm, $0.56
    • PRA (PRAA) 4pm, $1.11
    • Rackspace (RAX) 4pm, $0.16
    • Resolute Energy (REN) Aft-Mkt, ($0.06)
    • Towerstream (TWER) 4:01pm, ($0.10)
    • Wayfair (W) Aft-Mkt, ($0.37)
    • Woodward (WWD) 4:05pm, $0.78

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Declines After Biggest Advance Since June on U.S. Outlook
  • Brent Oil Reaches One-Week High as China Exports Exceed Forecast
  • Kuwait Oil Minister Sees No OPEC Output Cut at Next Meeting
  • Gold Bulls Trim Bull Wagers at Fastest Pace of Year: Commodities
  • Rebar Climbs by Most in a Week Amid Output Cuts, Record Exports
  • Corn to Soybean Price Forecasts Cut by Morgan Stanley on Supply
  • Iron Ore Seen Extending Declines by ANZ as Global Glut to Double
  • Port Hedland Officers, Deckhands Settle as Engineers to Strike
  • Bullish Oil Bets Cut in Sign of Growing OPEC Skepticism: Energy
  • Kuwait Oil Minister Sees No Decrease in OPEC Crude Output
  • Global Oil Market Oversupplied by as Much as 1.5m B/D: PIRA CEO
  • Corn Extends Decline Before USDA Report Set to Show Ample Supply
  • Rayonier Cuts Dividend, Restates Earnings on ‘Material Weakness’
  • Kashagan Oil Field Seen by Total Producing by 2017 at the Latest
  • Zinc Climbs for Third Day as Chinese Exports Exceed Estimates

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

next