Consensus estimates, management guidance and commentary, and questions for management in preparation for the earnings release tomorrow.
Please see our note:
CALL TO ACTION
Hilton Worldwide will report Q3 2014 results tomorrow and we expect another beat and raise event (the treat). However, we also very shortly expect a Halloween surprise – a secondary equity offering of 90 million shares by Blackstone (the trick). We reiterate our positive view on Hilton and the lodging sector but remind investors to be sensitive to event timing.
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Takeaway: #Quad4 is one of the most important macro trends we have identified for the quarter.
Before formally introducing #Quad4 as one of our top Q4 macro themes, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explained during an institutional call in September why we were likely heading into Quadrant 4 of his model. That’s when both growth and inflation slow.
For the record, during this call McCullough also advised getting long Utilities (XLU) which is up well over 6% since this video first aired, versus the S&P 500 which is down -1%.
#Quad4 is one of Hedgeye's Q4 2014 Macro Themes. In other words, it's one of the most important macro trends our macro team has identified for the quarter.
- · #Quad4: Our models are forecasting a continued slowing in the pace of domestic economic growth, as well as a further deceleration in inflation here in Q4. The confluence of these two events is likely to perpetuate a rise in volatility across asset classes as broad-based expectations for a robust economic recovery and tighter monetary policy are met with bearish data that is counter to the consensus narrative.
We will be hosting a conference call on Monday, November 3rd at 11:00am EDT with renowned pollster Scott Rasmussen to discuss the upcoming midterm elections.
Mr. Rasmussen will provide a 30 minute presentation on potential election outcomes followed by an open Q&A moderated by Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones.
Mr. Rasmussen was referred to by the Washington Post as "a driving force in American politics" and been called "America's insurgent pollster". He has widely been considered one of the more accurate pollsters in the nation and the one who is most in touch with subtle opinion shifts in the electorate.
KEY QUESTIONS ON THE CALL WILL INCLUDE
- What are the probable outcomes nationwide for both the Senate and House of Representatives?
- Which races are most likely to end in surprise?
- What are the implications of this election for politics, economics, and policy?
- Post the results, what are the implications for the President and both parties in various outcome scenarios?
- Toll Free Number:
- Direct Dial Number:
- Conference Code: 399212#
- Materials: CLICK HERE(slides will be available
approximately one hour prior to the start of the call)
ABOUT SCOTT RASMUSSEN
Founder and president of Rasmussen Reports, Scott Rasmussen is a political analyst, New York Times bestselling author, public speaker and independent public opinion pollster.
In 2012, Rasmussen became a New York Times bestselling author with his book The People's Money. His earlier books include Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System and In Search of Self-Governance.
Rasmussen and his firm have developed a reputation for delivering reliable, newsworthy and actionable public opinion data. Slate.com's Mickey Kaus declared in 2009, "If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen." The Washington Examiner's Michael Barone calls him "one of America's most innovative pollsters." Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen, pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, say that Scott has an "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."
In 2008, Rasmussen projected then-Senator Barack Obama would win the presidential election by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen was within half a percentage point of the actual vote totals earned by both President Bush and Senator Kerry.
Takeaway: A closer look behind today's GDP number reveals a picture not nearly as pretty as the headline suggests.
For more Hedgeye macro perspective on today's GDP report click here.
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