YUM filed an 8-K yesterday after the close, in which it discussed the recent food scandal involving supplier Shanghai Husi, a division of OSI. The company has since terminated its relationship with OSI globally, but severe damage has been done.
According to the company:
- "While OSI was not a major supplier to Yum! Brands, these events triggered extensive news coverage in China that has shaken consumer confidence, impacted brand usage, and disparaged the hard work of our over 400,000 Chinese employees."
- "The result has been a significant, negative impact to same-store sales at both KFC and Pizza Hut in China over the past 10 days."
- "At this point, it is too early to know how quickly sales will rebound in China and the corresponding full-year financial impact to Yum! Brands."
- "However, if the significant sales impact is sustained, it will have a material effect on full-year earnings per share."
Recall that on July 23, 2014, we removed long YUM from our Investment Ideas list (YUM: Losing Faith) on the basis of a significant, anticipated setback in China following the initial report of improper food handling practices in the country. Chinese consumers are still fragile and, as we opined, the consequences of this event would be material. As it stands, we believe consensus full-year same-store sales (depicted in the chart below) and earnings estimates are far too aggressive. We won't know much more until the company reports 3Q14 results in October, but this is a name we'd stay away from.
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Client Talking Points
Is the U.S. Dollar strengthening because the U.S. economy is, or is it signaling immediate-term TRADE overbought versus the EURO because Europe is slowing now too? We’ll take the latter – because the early cycle growth components of everything from the Russell 2000, Housing, and UST 10YR Yield are.
We see bearish @Hedgeye TREND signals across European Equities - and while the DAX is down the least (compared to Portugal -1.6%, Spain -1.3%, Italy -1.1%) this morning, at -0.7% to 9523, it’s well below our 9788 TREND resistance line.
Newsflash: One up-day to lower-highs within a bearish TREND for U.S. 10yr yields doesn’t a new bear market in the long bond make. 2.54% 10yr yield within a 2.44-2.56% immediate-term risk range. We reiterate our #Q3Slowing USA theme this morning.
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Top Long Ideas
Hologic is emerging from an extremely tough period which has left investors wary of further missteps. In our view, Hologic and its new management are set to show solid growth over the next several years. We have built two survey tools to track and forecast the two critical elements that will drive this acceleration. The first survey tool measures 3-D Mammography placements every month. Recently we have detected acceleration in month over month placements. When Hologic finally receives a reimbursement code from Medicare, placements will accelerate further, perhaps even sooner. With our survey, we'll see it real time. In addition to our mammography survey. We've been running a monthly survey of OB/GYNs asking them questions to help us forecast the rest of Hologic's businesses, some of which have been faced with significant headwinds. Based on our survey, we think those headwinds are fading. If the Affordable Care Act actually manages to reduce the number of uninsured, Hologic is one of the best positioned companies.
Construction activity remains cyclically depressed, but has likely begun the long process of recovery. A large multi-year rebound in construction should provide a tailwind to OC shares that the market appears to be underestimating. Both residential and nonresidential construction in the U.S. would need to roughly double to reach post-war demographic norms. As credit returns to the market and government funded construction begins to rebound, construction markets should make steady gains in coming years, quarterly weather aside, supporting OC’s revenue and capacity utilization.
Legg Mason reported its month ending asset-under-management for April at the beginning of the week with a very positive result in its fixed income segment. The firm cited “significant” bond inflows for the month which we calculated to be over $2.3 billion. To contextualize this inflow amount we note that the entire U.S. mutual fund industry had total bond fund inflows of just $8.4 billion in April according to the Investment Company Institute, which provides an indication of the strong win rate for Legg alone last month. We also point out on a forward looking basis that the emerging trends in the mutual fund marketplace are starting to favor fixed income which should translate into accelerating positive trends at leading bond fund managers. Fixed income inflow is outpacing equities thus far in the second quarter of 2014 for the first time in 9 months which reflects the emerging defensive nature of global markets which is a good environment for leading fixed income houses including Legg Mason.
Three for the Road
TWEET OF THE DAY
Former CEO of PepsiCo Americas Foods, Brian Cornell, is named as new CEO and chairman of the board of Target.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Creativity comes from trust. Trust your instincts. And never hope more than you work.
-Rita Mae Brown
STAT OF THE DAY
Another solid session for Chinese stocks, Shanghai Composite up +0.9% to +7.2% year-to-date.
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.45%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.37%
“For a fee, the exchange will flash information.”
That’s a simple quote (from Flash Boys, pg 44) to a simple problem that RBC’s Brad Katsuyama faced in 2009 – being run over by getting late information. This is why Raj @Galleon paid such a premium for inside information. Front-running information flow? Yep. There’s big money in that.
There’s also lots of moneys in not losing other people’s moneys by chasing macro headlines that are taken out of context. Yesterday’s newsy Q2 2014 US GDP report was a fantastic example of that: “US Equity Futures and Bond Yields Surge on +4% GDP!”
Newsflash: it’s Q3.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
To be fair to the 2014 US Growth Bulls who are looking for +3-4% GDP and a 10yr Yield > 3%, with a Q2 +4% bounce off of one of the worst Q1s since World War II (see our Chart of The Day for context), on an annualized basis, 1st half of the year GDP in the US wasn’t negative. It was +0.87%. #Booyah
“So”, 62 months into a US economic expansion, as the intermediate-term TREND in US economic growth slows, you want to be buying that flash of Q2 “bounce” information, right? Wrong. US Equity futures reversed in a hurry yesterday and are now indicated down another 13 handles.
Spooo-hoo. What else can US consumer (XLY, XLP), housing (ITB), or early cycle industrial (XLI) perma bulls blame this morning?
- Europe? Sure, most of it, actually – Italian youth unemployment = 43.7% (whatever it takes!)
- China? After one of its best 2-week stock market moves in 4 years, not so much
- How about Israel or Putin, or something like that? #BlameCanada
I can flash you bullish information. Manufacturing that is easy. Twitter actually made-up user information using robots! It’s funny - if we write anything remotely USA bullish an entire community seems to cling to that like we’re going to enter the next 62 month expansion without ever leaving the first one!
According to one reading that I would characterize as one of the best contra-indicators of late 2007 (the Conference Board’s qualitative consideration of US consumer confidence), everything is just peachy. Problem is that you sell a cyclical (the US economy) when goldilocks is feeling peachy.
The best 2015 bull case (sorry, it’s still 2014) for the average American consumer that I have read to-date is one that our own Darius Dale wrote about yesterday (ping for his note) – reversing the bearish #InflationAccelerating call we have had since January.
That thesis goes as follows:
- US Dollar rips again (after it already ripped to overbought YTD highs)
- Commodities collapse (like they did in 2013)
- And the US consumer starts spending his and her brains out
If only 80% of America got DD’s flash report from us in their gmail boxes this morning… The poor bastard making $48,000/year with peak all-time cost of living would wake up feeling rich again!
Obviously real world wages and consumption patterns don’t work that way (or did you get a rent reduction and discount at Chipotle this morning?). Markets aren’t economies either. If they were, the Argentine stock market wouldn’t have been +7% to +67.3% YTD yesterday.
Markets are non-linear and constantly being barraged by multiple risk factors, across multiple durations. Meanwhile investors are constantly being tested by their confirmation biases and emotions. That’s why, as I get older and fatter, I like to wait and watch.
I also like to ask myself a lot of questions. I genuinely enjoy reading my analysts research views too. If they are doing their job, they’re constantly in flux, weighing each data point within the context of both the last and our forward looking TREND.
Is the US Dollar “strong” (US Dollar Index is +0.4% over the last 6 months, -0.5% over the last year) because the US economy is strengthening, sequentially (from Q2 to Q3) or is the Euro (vs USD) simply weak because the European recovery is weakening?
If Europe’s recovery slows in 2H 2014 like the USA’s did in 1H 2014, what does that mean for US listed multi-national consumer staples and industrial stocks? Fortunately the answers to these questions won’t be in a “survey.” They’ll be marked-to-market, flashing as new time/price information on our screens.
Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:
UST 10yr Yield 2.44-2.56%
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
This note was originally published at 8am on July 17, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.
“If you leave the smallest corner of your head vacant for a moment, other people’s opinions will rush in from all quarters.”
-George Bernard Shaw
Perhaps the most challenging part of the investment business is to control your own views. After all, the world today is replete with conflicting opinions and research. Some of it is very insightful, but the vast majority of these opinions are what we would characterize as the noise, versus the signal.
One point most of us can agree on is that when successful investors speak with conviction, it's worth giving them a little room in our ever so full minds. In this vein, we thought that Stan Druckenmiller of Dusquesne and Soros Capital fame, had some apropos comments at the Institutional Investor “Delivering Alpha” conference yesterday.
Here are a few of Druckenmiller’s best quotes:
“I am fearful that today our obsession with what will happen to markets and the economy in the near term is causing us to misjudge the accumulation of much greater long term risks to our economy.”
“I hope we can all agree that once-in-a-century emergency measures are no longer necessary five years into an economic recover.”
“There is a heated debate as to what a 'neutral' funds rate would be. We should be debating why we haven't moved more meaningfully toward the neutral funds rate if for no other reason so the Fed will have additional weapons available if the outlook darkens again.”
His last point is perhaps most spot on. Five years into the “recovery”, why are we still at extreme, once in a century emergency policy measures? And given that, what, if any, options do policy makers have if the economy does sour?
Inquiring and non-vacant minds want to know Dr. Yellen!
Back to the Global Macro Grind...
To her credit, even if she didn’t give us any real insight on her strategy as it relates to monetary policy, Dr. Yellen did give us some decent stock advice in her recent congressional testimony. Specifically, she said that she believed valuations for biotech and social media stocks were stretched.
While we would never recommend shorting a stock on valuation (sorry Dr. Yellen!), we absolutely agree with her call that certain social media stocks are overvalued. In fact, our top pick on the short side is and continues to be YELP.
On that front, yesterday a key risk to the short idea disappeared as Yahoo effectively indicated they would use much of their Alibaba proceeds to return cash to shareholders. While the company didn’t specifically say they wouldn’t buy YELP, buying YELP would certainly be inconsistent with returning cash to shareholders (to say the least).
Speaking of returning cash to shareholders and technology, we recently launched our newest sector, Semiconductors, led by Craig Berger. A key theme of his launch was that there is a subset of semi-conductor stocks that have been returning cash to shareholders and will continue to aggressively do so.
Yesterday, Intel (INTC) reported strong numbers, which was capped with an additional $20 billion added to its stock buy back program. Intel, certainly, knows what to do with the Fed’s low interest rates! While Berger remains cautious on the outlook for INTC because of the PC market (in effect: can things get better from here?), he continues to like this theme of owning companies in the semiconductor space that will increase dividends.
In the Chart of the Day below, we highlight this very investable theme with a slide from our Semiconductor launch presentation, which shows the companies that historically have returned the most cash back to shareholders. If you’d like to see Craig’s proprietary analysis on which companies are going to raise dividends next, or to set up a time to chat with him, please email email@example.com.
Getting back to the global macro grind, a key derivative play of semiconductors doing well is of course to be long Taiwan on a country basis. My colleague Darius wrote the following back in early June and it holds today:
“While it’s hard to argue in favor of the predictability of YTD gains, Taiwan does have idiosyncratic country risk factors that support allocating capital to this market at the current juncture. Specifically, improving GIP fundamentals support chasing Taiwanese equities up here – particularly amid heightened prospects for M&A activity in the global semiconductor space. It’s worth noting that the Tech sector accounts for a whopping 46% of TAIEX market cap, with semiconductors alone accounting for 23%.
Contrary to Brazil, it’s particularly difficult to find a meaningful economic indicator in Taiwan that isn’t accelerating on both a sequential and trending basis. While headline inflation is indeed accelerating, it’s accelerating off of extremely low levels and does not warrant any attention from the central bank – especially with WPI trends being so subdued.”
While Taiwan has been a strong market in the year-to-date, this morning might actually offer an opportunity to get in at a discount as Taiwan Semiconductor is trading down almost 6% on news that it is likely to lose some next generation chip orders in 2015 from Apple and Qualcomm.
Before you head off into the trading day and eventually the weekend, we did want to offer one last quote that goes back to the start of our note and that we hope will find a spot in your mind:
"This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President [Wilson] signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized....the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill."
-Charles A. Lindbergh, Sr. , 1913
Indeed Mr. Lindbergh, indeed.
Keep your head up and stick on the ice,
Daryl G. Jones
Director of Research
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