What's Happening in Macau and What It Means for Key Gaming Stocks


Todd Jordan, Managing Director of Hedgeye's Gaming, Lodging and Leisure team, talks with fellow analyst David Benz about business conditions in Macau and the impact on these five stocks.

FLASHBACK: @KeithMcCullough Issued Warning Before Today's -2.9% GDP Stink Bomb

If you're just waking up and wondering what you've missed this morning, here it is:


FLASHBACK: @KeithMcCullough Issued Warning Before Today's -2.9% GDP Stink Bomb  - tums


"It is mathematically impossible, at this point, to get to anything that remotely resembles a 3-4% U.S. GDP economy," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough remarked in this morning macro conference call.  "Down -2.9%? That is just nasty. And they're making up the inflation number! If they used the real inflation number, I have to go through the math here, GDP might have been like minus 4% or more."


Our macro team has been warning on growth all year long. One example:

FLASHBACK: @KeithMcCullough Issued Warning Before Today's -2.9% GDP Stink Bomb  - boom1

Bottom line according to McCullough: Inflation slows real consumption growth.

YELP: Short Best Idea Update Call (Today)

Takeaway: We are hosting the update call today at 1pm EST. Dial-in information is below

YELP: Short Best Idea Update Call (Today) - HE IM YELP UPDATE


Hedgeye's Internet & Media Team, led by Sector Head Hesham Shaaban, is hosting an update call to their SHORT Yelp (YELP) Best Idea.  The update will provide a review of our thesis with incremental data and analysis; notes from our call with YELP management, and our rebuttal to the push-back on our thesis. 

The conference call will be held today at 1:00pm EDT detailing our thesis and fielding questions at the conclusion of the call.



  • Short thesis with incremental data & analysis
  • Notes from our call with management
  • Rebuttal to the push-back on our thesis
  • Why YELP isn't a viable acquisition target



Toll Free Number:

Direct Dial Number:

Conference Code: 245132#

Materials: CLICK HERE




Hesham Shaaban oversees the Internet & Media Sector for Hedgeye Risk Management, which was recently launched in 2014. Before joining Hedgeye, Hesham worked as a private equity analyst at Viscogliosi Brothers following equity research roles at Cerulean Capital and Maxim Group. Hesham received his CFA charter in 2008, and graduated from Northeastern University in 2004.   

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This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

Join for E-Cig Speaker Series - Are Vaporizers Taking Share from Big Tobacco's E-Cigs?

We look forward to continuing our Speaker Series on electronic cigarettes with Jan Andries Verleur, CEO of VMR Products, on Wednesday July 2nd at 2:00pm EDT. VMR is a leading private online e-cigarette and vaporizer manufacturer with such brands as V2 Cigs and Vapor Couture.


Is the consumer switching to an alternative vaping product? Mr. Verleur will offer his latest insights and expertise to Hedgeye's ongoing research on the electronic cigarette category.




  • Industry developments and trends
  • How the FDA's proposed regulations stands to impact the industry
  • VMR's product offering versus Big Tobacco's
  • What does future technology look like



  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 685512#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE (slides will download approximately one hour prior to the start of the call)



Verleur co-founded VMR with Dan Recio in 2009. During 2012/13 Verleur served as President of the Smoke Free Alternative Trade Association (SFATA), and is currently serving as its treasurer. Prior to VMR, Verleur spent the past fifteen years running business-to-consumer (B2C) companies across the Americas, Europe, and Europe that deliver products and services over the internet. He majored in marketing at Penn State University. 



Incorporated in April 2010 and headquartered in Miami, VMR is a leading online retailer of electronic cigarette products, with 3,000 online orders daily across 30 countries. In the U.S. VMR products can be found across gas and convenience stations and food channels, including Walmart. The company has 225 employees worldwide.

Keith's Macro Notebook Special Edition: Why He Saw the Big GDP Miss Coming

LEISURE LETTER (06/25/2014)

Tickers: IGT, RCL, HOT, MAR


IGT – BWIN.PARTY agreed to integrate IGT's mobile and online game offerings into BWIN's US and European web-site portals.

Takeaway:  Licensing royalty deal for IGT


RCL – announced a sale featuring 50% off 2nd guest (excludes taxes, fees, port charges) for select 2015 and 2016 sailings. This offer ends July 15, 2014.

Takeaway: This (Buy One Get One) 50% deal was extended from May's promotions.


Insider Transactions

HOT – CEO Frits D. Van Paasschen sold 51,435 shares on Thursday, June 19th at an average price of $81.01/share and now owns 246,915 shares. The shares represent 25% of an equity award covering 102,870 shares which vested in four equal installments beginning 2/28.2009.  The cost basis of the security was $48.61/share.


MAR – J W. Marriott, Jr. sold 200,000 shares on Friday, June 20th at $63.47/share and now directly owns 188,229 shares.

Takeaway: As we've repeatedly written, if the lodging industry fundamentals are so strong and the industry is only in the fifth inning, why is insider selling increasing? 


IVS - Macau, Beijing in talks on Individual Visit Scheme (GGRAsia)

Macau’s Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture, Cheong U, and mainland China officials have discussed whether changes should be made to the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS).  The scheme allows mainland passport holders to visit Macau and Hong Kong as independent travellers rather than as part of a tour group. 


Local residents have expressed concerns in mainstream and social media about the growth in visitor arrivals. Some tourism experts and tourism industry insiders have called for a strategic plan to ascertain the city’s capacity to receive more visitors.


Takeaway:  Visitation hasn't been off the charts lately so it would seem odd to change the IVS program. 


Pokerstars - could be live in NJ by autumn (EGR Magazine)  

Takeaway:  While we don't know how the NJ Division of Gaming Enforcement will handle the Pokerstars acquisition by Amaya, they could take over the NJ I-gaming market if allowed by DGE.  Pokerstars would use the Resorts Casino license.


Macau Infrastructure – The Pac On ferry terminal faces more delays.  Currently, only a temporary terminal is in operation, with a limited number of sailings per hour. 

Takeaway: More delays 


Philippines Tourism – Short-term travel movements to and from the Philippines by Australian residents increased 11.6% year-over-year to 67,300 in the four months to April 30, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. 

Takeaway: Would appear to be a shift away from Thailand and Malaysian destinations toward the Philippines and could serve a broader customer base for the Manila casinos. 


Nevada Online Poker – Peppermill Resorts launched "Ultimate Online Poker" an online poker offering with a system run by Ultimate Gaming, a Station Casinos controlled company.  Peppermill is the fourth online gaming offering in Nevada, joining Stations Casinos, Caesars and South Point.

Takeaway: Slow and steady expansion of online poker. 


Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye

Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.

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