Takeaway: No stability in ICSC #'s. AdiBok weakness in core. GOOG rollouts out same-day delivery to NYC. BBY another Retail exec departs
EVENTS TO WATCH
- WFM - Earnings Call: Tuesday 5/6, 5:00pm
- BEBE - Earnings Call: Thursday 5/8, 4:30pm
- TUMI - Earnings Call: Thursday 5/8, 4:30pm
- RL - Earnings Call: Friday 5/9, 9:00am
ICSC - Chain Store Sales Index
Takeaway: One positive, one negative data point trend continues. Still no stability from the consumer in retail land. One more easy comp before compares get much more difficult.
ADDYY - 1Q14 Earnings
Takeaway: Sales flat in AdiBok's backyard and down 20% on a currency adjusted basis in North America. Emerging market growth means very little if the company can't hold onto market share in its core markets. Yes the World Cup should help in 2Q, but we should have seen some benefit starting in 1Q. Sales inventory spread of -13% plus margin erosion = a difficult setup for the remainder of the year.
GOOG, AMZN, WMT, TGT - Google Targets Amazon With Free Same-Day Delivery in N.Y. and L.A.
- "Google just threw down the gauntlet in the same-day delivery wars, launching its Google Shopping Express service in Manhattan and parts of Los Angeles and offering free same-day delivery for the first six months."
- "The service, previously available only in the San Francisco Bay area, delivers groceries and other goods from the likes of Costco, Target and Walgreens, and usually costs $4.99 per store visited."
Takeaway: Partnering with Google and Ebay is the best alternative for retailers when trying to fend off AMZN, but scaling same day in a market as dense as NY won't be easy. Orders overwhelmed Google's network yesterday and the company was forced to refuse service after noon. Still a lot of kinks need to be ironed out, but a step in the right direction for brick and mortar.
BBY - Senior executive resigns at Best Buy
- "Jude Buckley has resigned as chief commercial officer of Best Buy Co., where he was in charge of store design and strategies for vendors and wireless carriers, the company said Monday."
- "He is the second top operations executive to leave the Richfield-based electronics retailer in recent weeks. On April 14, Best Buy said Shawn Score, a 29-year veteran of the company, left after little more than a year as head of the company’s U.S. retail stores."
- "After the appointment of Hubert Joly as chief executive officer in 2012, Buckley was elevated to chief commercial officer reporting to Joly."
Takeaway: Two keys pieces of the US retail team gone in under one month. Not a good sign for a company trying to remake itself and rationalize its real-estate.
ADDYY - Adidas Puts Rockport Shoe Brand on Auction Block
- "...Adidas AG is looking to sell its Rockport brand, according to people familiar with the matter."
- "The German company has hired investment bank Guggenheim Partners to start pitching Rockport to potential buyers, said two of the people. Rockport has between $30 million and $40 million in annual...Ebitda...Rockport could command $300 million or more."
PVH - PVH Corp. Announces License Agreement with TS Commerce Corporation for Van Heusen Brand
- "PVH Corp. and TS Commerce Corporation have entered into a license agreement under which TS Commerce Corporation will manufacture, sell, distribute and promote apparel and accessories for the Van Heusen brand in Korea. The initial term of the license agreement runs through December 2018."
- "Under the license agreement, TS Commerce Corporation has the rights to manufacture, sell, distribute and promote Van Heusen products which include men’s dress and sport shirts, neckwear, knit shirts, suits and suit separates, pants, underwear, leather belts, wallets, cuff links, tie bars, socks, headwear, bags and shoes."
- "TS Commerce Corporation will open and operate free-standing Van Heusen stores in Korea, and has the rights to also distribute Van Heusen products through shop-in-shops, specialty stores, department stores, retail outlets and via an e-commerce website."
JWN - Nordstrom debuts integrated online & mobile shopping site
- "Seattle-based Nordstrom, Inc., has launched nordstromrack.com, a new e-commerce site and mobile app, built on a shared platform with HauteLook, Nordstrom's flash sale business. The new site gives customers access to shop Nordstrom Rack merchandise alongside HauteLook flash sale events."
- "The site experience is designed to offer an integrated way for customers to browse and buy merchandise either through a persistent Nordstrom Rack offering of on trend apparel, accessories and shoes at 30-70 percent off regular prices or through limited-time, limited-inventory flash sale events powered by HauteLook. Customers are able to shop both sites through a single log-in, shopping cart and can combine items into one easy checkout."
MW - Men's Wearhouse Announces Termination Of Shareholder Rights Plan
- "The Men's Wearhouse announced today that its rights agreement has been amended to accelerate the expiration date to May 5, 2014, effectively terminating the company's shareholder rights plan as of that date. The rights agreement had originally been scheduled to expire on September 30, 2014."
We are hosting a conference call with Yum! Brands CFO Pat Grismer today at 11am EST.
Toll Free Number:
Direct Dial Number:
Conference Code: 551668#
Broadly speaking, we plan to hit on three key topics, including:
1. Succession planning
- Pending CEO Greg Creed
- Office of the Chairman
2. Taco Bell breakfast
- How is it progressing?
- What is the go-forward game plan?
- What are the important benchmarks?
3. China Division
- How is it progressing?
- What is the go-forward game plan?
- What are the important benchmarks?
real edge in real-time
This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.
Client Talking Points
Our total U.S. Equity market volume reading was down -26% and -40%, respectively, versus the one- and three-month average volume studies yesterday. It’s easily one of the worst up price/down volume readings I have ever seen.
#InflationAccelerating continues (Wheat and Corn up +1.9% yesterday; Coffee up another +0.9%; US meat prices hitting all-time highs) into the USDA’s global grain harvest report on Friday. Meanwhile, ramping US cost of living continues to augment our #ConsumerSlowing and US #HousingSlowdown calls.
Sell in May and go away? It’s been a great run for Italian Equities (up +14.4% year-to-date), the Euro, the Pound, etc. but on good Service PMI prints out of the UK, Spain, and Italy this morning, equities don’t seem to care. I’m watching lower-highs very closely. We still like European growth more than US growth, but don’t have to wear it all summer long.
|FIXED INCOME||20%||INTL CURRENCIES||20%|
Top Long Ideas
Hologic is emerging from an extremely tough period which has left investors wary of further missteps. In our view, Hologic and its new management are set to show solid growth over the next several years. We have built two survey tools to track and forecast the two critical elements that will drive this acceleration. The first survey tool measures 3-D Mammography placements every month. Recently we have detected acceleration in month over month placements. When Hologic finally receives a reimbursement code from Medicare, placements will accelerate further, perhaps even sooner. With our survey, we'll see it real time. In addition to our mammography survey. We've been running a monthly survey of OB/GYNs asking them questions to help us forecast the rest of Hologic's businesses, some of which have been faced with significant headwinds. Based on our survey, we think those headwinds are fading. If the Affordable Care Act actually manages to reduce the number of uninsured, Hologic is one of the best positioned companies.
Construction activity remains cyclically depressed, but has likely begun the long process of recovery. A large multi-year rebound in construction should provide a tailwind to OC shares that the market appears to be underestimating. Both residential and nonresidential construction in the U.S. would need to roughly double to reach post-war demographic norms. As credit returns to the market and government funded construction begins to rebound, construction markets should make steady gains in coming years, quarterly weather aside, supporting OC’s revenue and capacity utilization.
Darden is the world’s largest full service restaurant company. The company operates +2000 restaurants in the U.S. and Canada, including Olive Garden, Red Lobster, LongHorn and Capital Grille. Management has been under a firestorm of criticism for poor performance. Hedgeye's Howard Penney has been at the forefront of this activist movement since early 2013, when he first identified the potential for unleashing significant value creation for Darden shareholders. Less than a year later, it looks like Penney’s plan is coming to fruition. Penney (who thinks DRI is grossly mismanaged and in need of a major overhaul) believes activists will drive material change at Darden. This would obviously be extremely bullish for shareholders and could happen fairly soon driving shares materially higher.
Three for the Road
TWEET OF THE DAY
Whatever u do today, do not quote America's Currency Credibility (USD) hitting fresh YTD lows @KeithMcCullough
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Great thoughts speak only to the thoughtful mind, but great actions speak to all mankind.” –Theodore Roosevelt
STAT OF THE DAY
The German drug maker Bayer has agreed to acquire Merck’s consumer care business for $14.2 billion. The deal will make Bayer one of the largest providers of over-the-counter products, giving it control of several well-known brand names, including Claritin, Coppertone and Dr. Scholl’s. (New York Times)
Tickers: HOT, MAR
EVENTS TO WATCH:
Tuesday, May 6
• RHP Q1 earnings – 10am , Passcode: 25122491
• SHO Q1 earnings – 12pm
• TRIP Q1 earnings – 4:30pm
• DIS FQ2 earnings – 5pm , Passcode: 36995300
Wednesday, May 7
• STAY Q1 – 830am
• STN Q1 – 4pm
• CZR Q1 – 5pm , Passcode: 20337702
Thursday, May 8
• PCLN Q1 – 730am
• MPEL Q1 – 830am , Passcode: MPEL
• CAR Q1 – 830am , Passcode Avis Budget
• BEE Q1 – 10am , Passcode: 10895989
• HOT – 10:10am presenting at Baird's 2014 Growth Stock Conference
• SGMS Q1 – 430pm , Password: SGMS
Friday, May 9
• HLT Q1 earnings – 10am , Passcode: 25981567
• AHT Q1 earnings – 11am
Monday, May 12
• DRH Q1 earnings – 10am , Passcode: 66393516
• HMIN Q1 earnings – 9pm
Tuesday, May 13
• HTHT Q1 earnings – 9pm , Passcode 28722442
Paradise Entertainment - has placed more of its multi-game live dealer-table hybrids in Macau casinos. Wynn has added 34 terminals to bring it to 80; MGM has added 50 to reach 109; and Casino Macau Jockey Club has installed 172 terminals. The terminals are being used by Macau casinos to offset the cap on live table games and are targeting lower-wagering customers.
Takeaway: Paradise and Shuffle Masters are doing well in Macau
HOT – announced it will open 35 hotels in the Middle East in the next three years, expanding its portfolio to over 80 hotels. Starwood will open seven new hotels in the Middle East this year, in both established and fast-growing markets such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq and Bahrain.
Takeaway: Growth in the Middle East
MAR – announced 14 new properties in the UAE and Saudi Arabia at the Arabian Hotel Investment Conference in Dubai.
Takeaway: Not to be outdone by its competitor.
Macau Labor Day Visitation – Macau welcomed 551,957 tourists in the 4-day holiday starting May 1, an increase of 20.3% YoY.
Takeaway: A strong start to May and we forecast Macau May GGR to increase 20% YoY
Greater China Travel – State-run agency Xinhua reported that the mainland enjoyed a record-breaking figure of 37 million train journeys made by Chinese travelers during the Labour Day holiday this year, surging 16% from last year.
Takeaway: Mainland Chinese continue to travel despite a economic cross currents.
Avian Flu (H7N9) – Guangzhou suspended sales of live poultry at nearly a third of its wet markets as the providence began a four-month test.
Takeaway: Reactions to bird flu threats have been muted lately following many false alarms.
Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation. Following a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive.
Takeaway: We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.
This note was originally published at 8am on April 22, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.
“Nothing entirely disappears in history.”
But the US stock market’s volume in the last 5 trading days almost has…
#History, as eloquently defined by T.J. Stiles in The First Tycoon – The Epic Life of Cornelius Vanderbilt, is “threads of tattered old fabric – especially social fabric – ever woven into new tapestries.” (pg 79)
Especially on the Old Wall, what’s stale to you and I eventually becomes the new. More commonly called consensus, it’s the art of front-running storytelling that makes us money. No pattern of predictable market behavior entirely disappears; especially with the benefit of looking in the rear-view mirror.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
So let me tell you a story this morning about Vanishing Volume. As with any good story, you need a good headline. After I effectively failed my first creative writing course in New Haven, a nice young professor taught me alliteration. Two v’s. Yep, so easy a Mucker can do it.
What’s not easy for the financial media to tell you are original content stories that require a basic level of algebra and a contextual overlay (you know, something like, say, a time series… so that you can see something meaningful, like the rate of change).
Usually, it’s easier to show these historical matters in pictures. So, instead of reading my rant, you can just skip to Christian Drake’s Chart of The Day and get the point. What we’re showing you here is the lack of buying conviction (i.e. total US equity market volume, across all exchanges):
- Volume on DOWN DAYS = +8% versus the 1 month average
- Volume on UP DAYS = -5% versus the 1 month average
- Yesterday’s volume (an UP DAY) was -18% versus the 1 month average
Fair enough. Since it feels like half of America took the day off again yesterday, you can accuse me of cherry picking that one nasty day of no-volume. So I’ll broaden my horizons to the last 5-days. UP day volume was -14% versus the average.
Now, if you only use a Moving-Monkey (more commonly called a simple 50 or 200 day moving average), you don’t care about risk factors like this. Single-factor (price only) models are point and click. My 6yr old can do it on Yahoo Finance. No underneath the hood analysis of volume or volatility required.
In my process (studying fractal patterns, returns, draw-downs, etc. of US stocks), using a multi-factor model is critical. And to be clear, it’s not that I have anything against monkeys… I used to use those things too (newsflash: they don’t work).
What’s the alternative? As a basic predictive signal, what works?
- Price UP, Volume ACCELERATING, and Implied Volatility FALLING = bullish
- Price DOWN, Volume ACCELERATING, and Implied Volatility RISING = bearish
- PRICE UP on DOWN VOLUME and Implied Volatility unchanged = bad
And really bad if you go all multi-duration and cross-asset-class (more factors) in your analysis!
So let’s go there.
- SP500 broke out (on no volume) above its intermediate-term TREND support of 1834, but failed at immediate-term TRADE resistance of 1887
- Nasdaq didn’t breakout above either my TRADE or TREND lines (bearish TREND with no support to fresh YTD lows)
- Russell2000 didn’t breakout above my TRADE or TREND lines of resistance either
- US Dollar Index bounced to lower-highs but remains below my TAIL risk line of $81.17 resistance
- US Bond Yield (10yr US Treasury) bounced to lower-highs but remains below my intermediate-term TREND resistance of 2.81%
- Nikkei (which is the upside down of the UP Yen vs USD move) failed at 14,835 TRADE resistance overnight = bearish TREND (-11% YTD)
I can keep going deeper and delve into the depths (more alliteration – see, I can do this without Janet – Yes I Can!) of the non-linear ecosystem that is the Global Macro Market – but I will not… because every good line of storytelling needs to simplify the complex.
What will be extra complex is seeing how Goldman and Credit Suisse explain their “buy Facebook (FB)” call from yesterday if my WhatsApp! man Zuck doesn’t deliver the 14x revenue bacon tomorrow. As for the buy Apple (AAPL) ahead of the quarter thing, that’s not how I roll.
I’m a macro man, so my main focus into and out of earnings events will be how the bubbles (Biotech and Social Media) trade after making lower-highs on lower-volumes. Biotech (IBB) was +2.3% yesterday but remains below @Hedgeye TREND resistance.
Oh, and Housing stocks (ITB) made fresh 2014 lows yesterday (-5.3% YTD), but let’s not story-tell about vanishing housing demand (while rates are falling) until tomorrow…
Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now (12 Big Macro ranges in our Daily Trading Range product):
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer