• It's Coming...

    MARKET EDGES

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After all the finger pointing at this year’s epic-ly frigid winter as an excuse for weak company performance, the white wash snow days of winter are (finally) coming to an end.

With no more excuses about why consumers stayed inside, we asked in today’s poll:  Will consumer spending bounce back this spring?
 

At the time of this post, 53% responded YES; 47% said NO.
 

Of those who voted YES, one responder pointed out that “this winter is what killed the dinosaurs (coldest in 13 years) - people stayed home from work and the shops.”
 

Another YES commenter further explained, “There's pent up demand from a bad winter and the oil longs are way too bold and when prices correct, the consumer wins!”
 

One voter summed up their YES vote by comparing previous seasons: “Last summer was the wettest on record in a decade. That's a good year-over-year comp.  Bottom line, April through July has a positive tailwind. After that, accelerating inflation will crimp spending in the late summer/early fall.”
 

And, while one YES voter agreed that weather had a hand in the slow down, calling it simply “fact,” they admitted that “the bounce won't be great, just better than it has been.”
 

Conversely, among the NO voters, one commenter said consumer spending will not bounce back due to “tepid job growth.”
 

Others clarified:

  • “I think the mild bump from pent up weather effects gets more than offset by larger burden for healthcare spending falling on consumers due to ACA this year.”
     
  • “I have less money than last year; [my] savings [are] slowly eroding...”
     
  • “Discretionary income will be lower due to higher fees/taxes and food/energy costs. Spending lower. Consumers maxed out on borrowing capacity.”
  • “Most of the relief people receive with the spring will be used to repair family balance sheets and brace for more inflation.”
     
  • “Any increase will be only inflation driven which is not good for economy or people especially when low rates already hurt savers badly.”

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