Poll of the Day Recap: A Spring Re-Birth for Consumer Spending?

After all the finger pointing at this year’s epic-ly frigid winter as an excuse for weak company performance, the white wash snow days of winter are (finally) coming to an end.

 

With no more excuses about why consumers stayed inside, we asked in today’s poll:  Will consumer spending bounce back this spring?
 

At the time of this post, 53% responded YES; 47% said NO.
 

Of those who voted YES, one responder pointed out that “this winter is what killed the dinosaurs (coldest in 13 years) - people stayed home from work and the shops.”
 

Another YES commenter further explained, “There's pent up demand from a bad winter and the oil longs are way too bold and when prices correct, the consumer wins!”
 

One voter summed up their YES vote by comparing previous seasons: “Last summer was the wettest on record in a decade. That's a good year-over-year comp.  Bottom line, April through July has a positive tailwind. After that, accelerating inflation will crimp spending in the late summer/early fall.”
 

And, while one YES voter agreed that weather had a hand in the slow down, calling it simply “fact,” they admitted that “the bounce won't be great, just better than it has been.”
 

Conversely, among the NO voters, one commenter said consumer spending will not bounce back due to “tepid job growth.”
 

Others clarified:

  • “I think the mild bump from pent up weather effects gets more than offset by larger burden for healthcare spending falling on consumers due to ACA this year.”
     
  • “I have less money than last year; [my] savings [are] slowly eroding...”
     
  • “Discretionary income will be lower due to higher fees/taxes and food/energy costs. Spending lower. Consumers maxed out on borrowing capacity.”
  • “Most of the relief people receive with the spring will be used to repair family balance sheets and brace for more inflation.”
     
  • “Any increase will be only inflation driven which is not good for economy or people especially when low rates already hurt savers badly.”

SUBSCRIBE TO HEDGEYE.


Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more