As the quarter-end approaches, the S&P 500 remains mostly flat at +0.5% year-to-date. We wanted to keep it simple in today’s poll. So we asked: Are you bullish or bearish on US equities on a TREND duration?
At the time of this post, 54% of respondents said BEARISH and 46% said BULLISH.
People voting BEARISH listed a variety of concerns.
Some BEARISH responses:
- “The market has risen far more than justified by the anemic economic growth and is overvalued. That's been true for awhile, but what's new now is that the grossly overpriced momentum stocks are finally starting to correct and not immediately bouncing back. I see that as a sign that a significant correction or bear is beginning.”
- “Global growth is slowing as biotech and social media bubbles are popping. In addition, the dollar is in a bearish formation as it gets pummeled by Fed heads. Upside is limited.”
- “1) Seasonality 2) April 15 – tax day 3) Newton's Law of Gravity. However, if everyone is bearish then the market will do just the opposite and take a bite out of the shorts.”
- “Market looks extremely weak and extremely overbought. In addition there is a lot of paper profits that people are going to realize before the Yen carry comes unwound.”
- “Too many data points that only occur when we are in or about to be in a recession coupled with a complacent and overvalued (by any measure) market...”
- “Growth is slowing, markets are due for rest, and in seasonally weak time, especially during 2nd year of presidential cycle.”
- “I have been taking long profits quickly so I guess I must be considered bearish. Definitely NOT 2013.”
- “I cannot see all this world debt being resolved. Very soon it becomes unglued. Yes, even in the US.”
- “Really Bear-Bull-Bear. Short term correct. Then Medium term bigger bubble, then Kaboom!”
Of those who were BULLISH, voters explained that:
- “Markets were so depressed coming out of the biggest modern day depression in '08 - markets overcorrected and thus still have room to run - this Bull will run for 2 more years.”
- “The Spring will bring growth (Chauncy Gardner). The economy is bobbing along, growing, albeit slowly and despite headwinds from the Fed $$$ burn.”
- “Long term bullish trend intact however setting up for near term correction similar to January.
- “Everyone's printing money and that is all that matters until something breaks. And something will break.”
- “I think we go up for another couple of months. Bull markets end in exhaustion. After a few months we'll start to feel the effects of the taper and fall hard.”
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