VIDEO | Keith's Macro Notebook 3/14: SPX EUROPE OIL

Bubbly: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

Takeaway: I might consider chasing the mo-mo on the upside, if the fundamental research view supported it – but it doesn’t.

Editor's note: This unlocked research note from CEO Keith McCullough was originally published March 10, 2014 at 10:44 in Macro. For more information on our services click here.



If the buck wasn’t burning and #InflationAccelerating wasn’t slowing US growth, I wouldn’t be selling on immediate-term TRADE overbought signals. Consensus hasn’t acknowledged the inflation impact on 2014 growth (yet), and I like that.


Bubbly: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - bubb


To call it a bubble isn’t a big deal. I called it a bubble when I was buying it all of last year (remember: #BTDB – buy-the-damn-bubble). What else would you call the all-time highs in prices?


Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:

  1. Immediate-term TRADE overbought = 1888
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1864
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1805

In other words, why would you buy an overbought price if you have 4% mean reversion downside to the TREND line of 1805? I might consider chasing the mo-mo on the upside, if the fundamental research view supported it – but it doesn’t.


Let’s see if 1864 holds. Then we reset.




Keith McCullough

Chief Executive Officer


Bubbly: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - km1

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Client Talking Points


At first risk happens slowly, and then it comes all at once...The S&P 500 has dropped back into the red for the year-to-date (The Dow is down -2.8% YTD) on an accelerating volume signal yesterday with VIX (volatility) confirming our TREND breakout above 14.71 earlier in the week . Study the factors in the bounce this morning. They’ll matter.


Both the DAX and Eurostoxx600 have also snapped my Hedgeye TREND signal lines this week. That’s new. For the record, no, I do not like this Janet-Yellen-sounding ECB President Mario Draghi talking about price fixing “forward guidance to curb Euro strength.” Not one bit.


Oil also broke our TREND duration signal line of $108.07 TREND support this week. Incidentally, with #InflationAccelerating, that’s probably the only good thing on my screen this morning for the U.S. consumer. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is down -1.4% year-to-date. Sorry.

Asset Allocation


Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration

We remain bullish on the British Pound versus the US Dollar, a position supported over the intermediate term TREND by prudent management of interest rate policy from Mark Carney at the BOE (oriented towards hiking rather than cutting as conditions improve) and the Bank maintaining its existing asset purchase program (QE). UK high frequency data continues to offer evidence of emergent strength in the economy, and in many cases the data is outperforming that of its western European peers, which should provide further strength to the currency. In short, we believe a strengthening UK economy coupled with the comparative hawkishness of the BOE (vs. Yellen et al.) will further perpetuate #StrongPound over the intermediate term.


Darden is the world’s largest full service restaurant company. The company operates +2000 restaurants in the U.S. and Canada, including Olive Garden, Red Lobster, LongHorn and Capital Grille. Management has been under a firestorm of criticism for poor performance. Hedgeye's Howard Penney has been at the forefront of this activist movement since early 2013, when he first identified the potential for unleashing significant value creation for Darden shareholders. Less than a year later, it looks like Penney’s plan is coming to fruition. Penney (who thinks DRI is grossly mismanaged and in need of a major overhaul) believes activists will drive material change at Darden. This would obviously be extremely bullish for shareholders and could happen fairly soon driving shares materially higher.

Three for the Road


4 of 9 sectors in our S&P Sector Risk Model are bearish on our TRADE duration; 5 are bullish @KeithMcCullough


"Efforts and courage are not enough without purpose and direction." - John F. Kennedy


The rich may have finally shaken off the recession. The number of U.S. households with a net worth of $1 million or more, excluding a primary residence, rose to 9.63 million in 2013, according to a new report from Spectrem Group, a consulting and research firm. That's more than a 600,000 leap up from 2012, and the highest number on record. (CNN)

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Retail Callouts (3/14): ULTA, BWS, AMZN, EBAY, TGT, WMT, NKE/Adi

Takeaway: Nice ULTA comp. BWS calls foul on weather. AMZN/EBAY traffic trending higher. TGT ignored breach warning. WMT made in USA. Adi Schools NKE



ULTA - 4Q Earnings


Overall, not a bad quarter for ULTA -- all things considered. Came in at $1.09 vs $1.07 and comped 9.2% vs expectations of 6.7%. Q1 guidance is a little light at $0.70-$0.75 vs the Street at $0.80, but that's likely the company being conservative given guidance for a 5% comp. Square footage growth remains unchanged from the guide-down at the end of last quarter. The only real negative we can identify is that inventory/sales is solidly negative -- for the 8th quarter in a row. That's simply not a characteristic of a great retailer. 


Retail Callouts (3/14): ULTA, BWS, AMZN, EBAY, TGT, WMT, NKE/Adi - chart1 3 14


BWS - 4Q Earnings


Brown Shoe beat the quarter, but we'd hardly call it a good print. The company earned $0.14 vs the Street at $0.10, but revenue missed by $22mm, or 3.5%. Famous Footwear comped -1.8%, which it attributed to store closures due to the bad weather. We'll definitely give 'em that one -- but will expect to see a marked increase in 1Q. Running was especially challenging for BWS in the quarter -- again, due to the weather. Boot sales were strong, but could not pick up all the slack. Inventories for the quarter were +8.3% on a 3% sales decline. Not very bullish for 1Q gross margins.


Retail Callouts (3/14): ULTA, BWS, AMZN, EBAY, TGT, WMT, NKE/Adi - chart4 3 14


AMZN, EBAY - February 2014 ChannelAdvisor Same Store Sales (SSS) for eBay, Amazon, Search and CSE



  • "Today we are releasing February 2014 SSS data for eBay, Amazon,Google Search and Google Shopping/PLA.  Overall the marketplaces we track here (eBay and Amazon) had nice bumps in February as the unusually bad winter weather snow storms cleared around most of the US and deliveries were back to standard delivery times."
  • "Amazon - Amazon's February came in at 23.0% compared to January’s 14.0%, a substantial m/m increase we believe due to the improvement in weather conditions."
  • "eBay -  eBay's February came in at 15.0% up from January’s 12.7%. We have eBay details further down in the report that show what is going on with this marketplace."


Retail Callouts (3/14): ULTA, BWS, AMZN, EBAY, TGT, WMT, NKE/Adi - chart2 3 14


Takeaway: Really nice sequential pickup at AMZN from a weak-ish January. But you can't ignore eBay, which is posting a steady, measured, multi-month comp recovery.


TGT - Target Didn't Follow Up After Hackers Tripped Its Security System



  • "Target Corp.'s computer-security team was alerted when hackers broke into the retailer's systems during the holiday shopping season, but decided the warning didn't need a follow-up."
  • "In its statement Thursday, Target said 'a small amount' of the hackers' activity was logged and flagged to its security team after the hackers entered its network. The company said after evaluating the warning, 'the team determined that it did not warrant immediate follow-up.'"


Takeaway: Class Action Lawyers must be drooling over this admission.


WMT - Wal-Mart Sold on Made in USA



  • "Wal-Mart Stores Inc... in January 2013 committed to sourcing $50 billion worth of goods in the U.S. in the 10th year of a decade-long initiative. On Thursday, Wal-Mart revealed that the cumulative spending over the decade will total $250 billion. Bill Simon, chief executive officer of Wal-Mart U.S…"


Takeaway: In year 10, WMT will likely source about $600bn worth of product  -- at cost. $50 bn is good -- any dedication to creating jobs in America is good. But if WMT wants to push the envelope, it could probably do more. Of course, it also wants to maintain the integrity of its price leadership, which becomes a challenge when you rely on US labor -- at least, without destroying margins.


ADDYY - Adidas Launches Climachill Apparel With Cooling Technology



  • "Adidas has launched Climachill, an active cooling apparel technology that provides an instant chilling sensation to help athletes perform in warm conditions. The line incorporates fabric woven with titanium and 3-D aluminium cooling spheres. The technology lowers athletes’  body temperature so they can train harder and run longer."
  • "Climachill pieces, which retail from $40 to $60, include running, training and tennis T-shirts, tanks and shorts. The line is being sold on and at select retailers nationwide."


Retail Callouts (3/14): ULTA, BWS, AMZN, EBAY, TGT, WMT, NKE/Adi - chart3 3 14


Takeaway: Not exactly the best winter to be launching something called Climachill. But to Adidas' credit, it does a very good job of launching a new technology and then explaining to consumers what the technical merits are. This might seem obvious, but it's an area where Nike has struggled for the better part of 30-years. (Note that the tags on Nike product hanging on the rack are identical whether it is a thermal jacket, or bathing suit for a 6-year old). Nike might have the better product, but it could learn a thing or two from Adidas.




GOOG - Report: Google Eyes First U.S. Retail Location Near NYC Apple Store



  • "Google plans to open its first retail location in the United States in New York City's SoHo neighborhood, situated just around the corner from an Apple store, a new report suggests."
  • "According to Crain's New York, Google will open an 8,000-square-foot retail location at 131 Greene St. If the reports are true, the store would also be across the street from eyewear company Warby Parker, which at one point was rumored to be helping design frames for Google Glass."
  • "This isn't Google's first foray into brick-and-mortar retail. The company has physical Android stores called 'Androidland' in Australia, Indonesia and India to showcase its products. Meanwhile, Chromezone, a shop within a branch of Currys and PC World in London, became the first official retailer to sell Google's Chromebook laptop at a retail store. However, it has yet to invest heavily in storefronts."


ARO - Aeropostale Enters Into Commitment Letter With Affiliates of Sycamore Partners for Strategic Partnership and $150 Million Financing



  • "Aeropostale, Inc. today announced that it has signed a commitment letter with Sycamore Partners and its affiliates for a strategic partnership and $150 million in senior secured credit facilities. The senior secured credit facilities will consist of a five-year $100 million term loan facility and a ten-year $50 million term loan facility that includes a sourcing arrangement with MGF Sourcing, an affiliate of Sycamore Partners."
  • "Under the terms of the commitment letter, Aeropostale will also issue convertible preferred stock to Sycamore Partners.  The convertible preferred stock gives Sycamore Partners the right to acquire up to 5% of the Company's common stock at an exercise price of $7.25, the closing price of the Company's common stock on March 12, 2014.  Combined with Sycamore Partners' current ownership of Aeropostale's outstanding common stock, Sycamore Partners' ownership on an as-converted basis would increase to approximately 12.3% of the Company's outstanding common stock."
  • "The new strategic sourcing partnership with MGF Sourcing significantly diversifies Aeropostale's apparel production, and all of the Company's sourcing orders will continue to be awarded through a competitive bidding process.  The sourcing partnership will result in Aeropostale's commitment to complete minimum merchandise purchases each year for ten years.  As the Company fulfills its minimum purchase requirements under the sourcing partnership, all amortization payments of the associated facility will be fully rebated."




Takeaway: We continue to view YUM, JACK, KKD, CMG and WEN as strong QSR plays on the long side.

Employment growth by age trends have been fairly consistent over the past year. but we do have a couple of notable call-outs.  The 25-34 YOA cohort had its best month of employment growth since January 2013, which should bode well for many quick-service and fast casual operators.  On the other hand, the 45-54 YOA cohort continues to struggle, as February marked the 16th consecutive month of employment deterioration.  This continues to be one of many headwinds facing the casual dining industry.  February employment growth data below:

  • 20-24 YOA: +1.51% YoY; -90.8 bps sequentially
  • 25-34 YOA: +2.37% YoY; +217.7 bps sequentially
  • 35-44 YOA: +1.56% YoY; -28 bps sequentially
  • 45-54 YOA: -1.16% YoY; -64.2 bps sequentially
  • 55-64 YOA: +1.74% YoY; +97.8 bps sequentially




Employment in the industry continues to grow at a healthy clip, but this growth has been decelerating across all three categories since mid-2013 which is, on the margin, negative for restaurants.






TTM Leisure & Hospitality growth has held up strong on a YoY basis, while TTM Knapp comps have declined steadily since the beginning of 2012.  If anything, this supports our case that casual dining is currently facing a secular decline.  In this type of environment, only the most nimble, innovative players will thrive.






Howard Penney

Managing Director


Fred Masotta






  • Hyatt Investor Day


Monday, March 17

  • SNOW 5 p.m. earnings call

Tuesday, March 18

  • Hedgeye Expert Call with REIT Attorney at 11am, details to be announced shortly 

Wednesday, March19

  • Galaxy Entertainment:  FY 2013 annual results 


IGT:  providing additional 850 new VLTs to Oregon State Lottery, on top of the 1,500 units the Lottery committed to last year from IGT.  Also, 2,700 IGT Trim Line and Game King machines will be upgraded.


Takeaway:  Positive news but likely reflected in consensus



Tam expects stable labor market after 2017 Macau Business

Demand for labor until 2017 will be the same as in the past few years – enough for the market to meet.  The strains in the labor market will ease after 2017.


Takeaway:  Labor concerns will remain under the spotlight for Cotai 2015/2016.  While the government may not be worried, we think shortages in dealer labor are possible with huge wage inflation as the Cotai properties open.  Remember that as of now, regulations insist that dealers be Macau citizens and the unemployment rate in Macau is sub 2%.


HK billionaire Lau found guilty in Macau land deal case-media Reuters


Takeaway:  A corruption crackdown remains the biggest risk to Macau's momentum in our opinion. 


Japan – Japanese municipalities Hokkaido and Nagasaki are pushing ahead with studies on integrated resorts (IRs) development, while the new governor of Tokyo remains undecided, says Gambling Compliance, a UK company familiar with the gaming aspirations of a country now attracting covetous glances from some of the world's foremost gaming corporations.


Takeaway:  Everyone is so positive on Japan - and they should be - but the play is crowded and it's not a done deal.



Singapore's January retail sales up just 0.1% YoY Channel News Asia


Takeaway:  Singapore GDP to GGR correlations are higher than Macau GGR to China GDP so this number matters.


Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive. 


Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.

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