Only a handful of states have released gaming revenues for December but the verdict is in
- Not sure the Street was ready for the onslaught of bad numbers but they’re here.
- Ohio and Pennsylvania – relatively new gaming states – are already out with high single digit/low double digit same-store declines
- The mature gaming state of Illinois released a -13% YoY same-store decline
- We think the sell side will likely lower Q4 estimates for PENN, PNK, and BYD
In the video below, Keith walks you through our top 3 global macro themes ahead of our Q1 2014 Macro Themes conference call tomorrow.
REMINDER: We will be hosting our Quarterly Macro Themes conference call tomorrow, January 9th at 11:00am EST. The accompanying presentation will detail the three most important macro trends that our team has identified for the quarter, as well as the associated investment opportunities.
- Toll Free Number:
- Direct Dial Number:
- Conference Code: 897866#
- Materials: CLICK HERE (slides will be available one hour prior to the start of the call)
Q1 2014 THEMES OVERVIEW
#InflationAccelerating: Across the globe, reported inflation readings are poised to accelerate from post-crisis lows as easy comps, a commodity base effect and accelerating wage pressures all come to a head in the first quarter of 2014. Moreover, the reemergence of inflation as a core macro risk threatens to materially alter the investment landscape going forward.
#GrowthDivergences: Looking to the U.S., Europe, China and Japan, we see the heavyweights of the world economy diverging from an economic growth perspective as some countries and/or regions are much further along in the economic cycle than others. We highlight those divergences and identify which countries and/or regions you want to be allocating assets to at the start of the year.
#FlowShows: in Q1 we expect a continuation of fund flows out of fixed income and into equities: the “Queen Mary” has indeed turned, aided by the Fed’s decision to begin tapering.
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THE HEDGEYE EDGE
Consensus is not bullish enough on Quiksilver (ZQK). The consensus view is understandably focused upon the new management team, cost cutting, and improved efficiency. We think that gets the stock to where it is today. Ultimately, in order to really get this stock to work, we need to see significant top line growth.
The only way we think we can gauge the viability of top line growth coming to fruition (for the first time in 5-years) is to roll up our sleeves, ask actual “action sports” and “surf consumers” (over 1,000 of them) an array of very detailed questions to understand the relevance of the brands, and subsequently determine whether the brands are powerful and relevant enough for the new management team to use effectively as an offensive weapon to create value.
So that’s what we did.
Our key takeaway here is that the brands – Quiksilver, Roxy and DC – all scored far better than we even hoped. We believe these brands all possess the relevance needed to grow from here. Statistics regarding brand authenticity, desirability, and customer loyalty (versus 20 other brands) came through as much more positive than we’d have thought, and certainly more than the consensus currently believes.
INTERMEDIATE TERM (TREND) (the next 3 months or more)
This is the only part of the story we’re not thrilled with. Why? 2014 will be all about cost cuts and modest (2%ish) top line growth. As such, our estimates for 2014 are not too far off of consensus. This is all a logical progression. The management team started in early 2013. The first and easiest thing to do is reorganize the company, cut redundant functions and ensure that the team is filled with ‘A’ players. Earnings in 2014 should be slightly positive vs. a loss of ($1.53) last year. That’s all due to restructuring. The good news is that this is largely baked, suggesting to us that there’s likely little risk of failure. That gives us confidence in minimal downside in the stock in 2014.
LONG-TERM (TAIL) (the next 3 years or less)
2015 and beyond is a much different story. Our long-term model has ZQK adding $600mm in revenue on top of a $1.9bn base. As a frame of reference, our top line growth forecast is over 1,000 basis points ahead of consensus.
Ultimately, we’re at over $1.00 per share in 2017, which is 45% ahead of the consensus. In the end, this is a 40%+ EPS grower that’s a double if we use a 20x p/e, which we think is more than fair based on the soon-to-be-realized growth profile.
Bottom line: Put this stock in your portfolio and forget about it. You’ll be pleasantly surprised a year or two from now.
ONE-YEAR TRAILING CHART
Europe is ringing in the New Year with some impressive data!
As a continuation of our top Q4 2013 Global Macro Theme, #EuroBulls, which outlined a bullish outlook on the GBP/USD and bullish positioning on UK and German equities, below we show updates to some of the charts we’re tracking that are supportive of our investment position around this theme.
In the Real Time Alerts Portfolio we’re currently long German equities via the etf EWG and long the GBP/USD (FXB). To get exposure to the UK equity market, we’ve traded the etf EWU in the past.
Steady as She Goes: broadly we continue to see a reduction in the risk profile across sovereigns and banks. Telling is that the Spanish 10YR bond is trading at 3.76% as its Italian counterpart is at 3.86%, and that both have reached spreads with the German Bund of under 200bps – back to where levels stood when Greece required its first bailout back in May 2010!
Meanwhile, the ECB continues to be highly accommodative with the main interest rates at 25bps. The ECB meets as soon as tomorrow to discuss any changes to monetary policy. Despite the media’s ‘deflationista’ frenzy around the inflation level (currently at 0.8% Y/Y in December and down 10bps since last month), we think President Draghi has well outlined the Bank’s forecast for an extended period of low inflation (below its 2% target). We think the next move from the ECB could be policy measures aimed at stoking real growth to SMEs through loan mechanisms, however not via another rate cut this quarter. We believe this position, as well as its continued posture of “ready and willing to act” (to ensure the survival of the Eurozone at any cost and keep financial conditions accommodative) will continue to support the common currency and strengthen investor confidence in the equity market.
Additionally, despite the Eurozone unemployment rate at a high and sticky 12.1%, we expect lower levels of inflation to help spur exports, consumer spending and broader confidence. Eurozone aggregate Services and Manufacturing PMIs have shown slow and steady progress, as have retail sales and car orders, which we expect to continue in Q1.
- Strong UK: we remain bullish on the British Pound/US Dollar and the UK equity market. Our positioning is supported over the intermediate term TREND by prudent management of interest rate policy from Mark Carney at the BOE (oriented towards hiking rather than cutting as conditions improve) and the Bank maintaining its existing asset purchase program (QE). We expect the FTSE (up +14.4% last year) to be pushed higher on continued evidence of emergent strength in the economy. In many cases, the UK’s high frequency data is outperforming that of its western European peers, including PMIs. We believe that a moderation in CPI should spur consumer spending and that a strong Pound should bolster spending power.
- UK Office of Budget Responsibility in its Autumn Statement revised higher its 2014 GDP outlook, to +2.4% vs prior +1.8% and 2014 CPI at +2.3% Y/Y vs prior +2.4%.
- We outline our levels on the GBP/USD below, and believe a strengthening UK economy coupled with the comparative hawkishness of the BOE (vs. Yellen et al.) will further perpetuate #StrongPound over the intermediate term.
- Strong Germany: we continue to like the DAX (up +25.5% last year), which we’re currently long of via the etf EWG. Fundamentals remain grounded with a low unemployment rate (6.9% vs 12.1% in the Eurozone), CPI at 1.2% Y/Y in DEC (vs 1.6% in NOV) that is aiding exports, alongside strong PMIs and consumer and business confidence, and an inflection in factory orders to the upside.
- Merkel consolidated her coalition late into 2013 – we expect Germany to remain the fiscal hawk vis-à-vis sovereign and bank policy.
- The upward revision in the Bundesbank’s 2014 GDP forecast last month, to +1.7% vs prior +1.5%, is in line with our bullish outlook.
“For man to truly understand himself, he must travel beyond the clouds”
By Michael Blum
When I saw my first Space Shuttle launch as a child, I knew I wanted to be an astronaut.
After I made my first real money selling PayPal/eBay stock, I bought a ticket on Virgin Galactic to go to space aboard SpaceShipTwo. I later bought a second seat on Space Expedition Corporation’s Lynx. As I became more involved in the Newspace community I began speaking at conferences and universities around the world – the topic being “The Potential for & Impact of Commercial Space & Space Tourism”.
Today, alongside my research and engineering team @Hedgeye, I am co-founding Firefly – a ground-based, small satellite launch company, with one of Hedgeye’s greatest supporters and fans, PJ King, as well as propulsion engineer extraordinaire, Tom Markusic.
With a Ph.D. from Princeton in Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, Tom has conducted research on deep space propulsion systems and since 2006 has held senior leadership positions inside virtually every leader in the Newspace Industry: Elon Musk’s SpaceX, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin and Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic. Tom is Firefly’s CEO and from what I have seen, he will be a fantastic entrepreneur and business executive.
Lowering the cost of small satellite launches to Low Earth and Sun Synchronous Orbits will revolutionize broadband data delivery and earth observation missions. What used to cost hundreds of millions of dollars, is rapidly becoming available in the single digit millions.
While the leaders in the nascent and rapidly developing small sat industry (companies such as PlanetIQ, Skybox, Planet Labs, and numerous others) have raised VC funds well in excess of $100M in the last 1-2 years, there exists virtually no dedicated launcher capacity for these ventures to deliver their payloads to orbit.
With Hedgeye’s help, Firefly will change this.
We have rapidly received our seed funding commitments and are already in discussions with investors looking towards our Series A funding. Since our website launched and word of mouth has spread through the industry, we have been overwhelmed with resumes. We have established our headquarters in Austin, TX and research and development operations in Hawthorne, CA.
What we are setting out to do will be enormously challenging. It is difficult to make exact projections about schedule until we get further along in development, but the team has set itself a goal: To be in orbit in about three years.
Hedgeye has and will continue to support Firefly on a number of fronts: Josh Steiner (today he runs our Financials vertical but in the past he analyzed satellite operators) has worked with us on market sizing.
Jay Van Sciver, who leads Hedgeye’s Industrials team, has worked on valuation analysis for some of the private New Space players. Hedgeye will lend assistance in a variety of operational areas, ranging from finance and accounting to HR, facilities and IT.
We are not in the business of complaining about the 2008 crisis. We are in the business of cutting edge research, intellectual growth, and product innovation. So, I just wanted to take a few minutes this morning to thank you for your business – it’s helping us travel beyond the clouds.
Onward and upward!
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