Takeaway: Athl. lags retail. Nice showing by Saucony. UA's major ad campaign. Kmart morphing into Rent-a-Center. Shareholder drags MW to JOSB table
EVENTS TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
M - Earnings Call: Wednesday 11/13 10:30 am
WMT - Earnings Call: Thursday 11/14 7:00 am
KSS - Earnings Call: Thursday 11/14 8:30 am
Athletic Footwear Data
Takeaway: The fact that sales were down 4.1% isn't as bad as fact that broader retail rebounded last week, as measured by yesterday's ICSC reading. The only brands with respectable readings are Saucony (WWW) and Skechers.
UA - Under Armour unveils ‘Makes You Better’ campaign
- "At an event in Denver, CO, Under Armour debuted 'Under Armour Makes You Better,' and highlighted the science behind ColdGear Infrared technology. Kevin Plank, Under Armour Founder and CEO, unveiled the new campaign with the help of world champion downhill skier Lindsey Vonn, freestyle skiing sensation Bobby Brown and reigning X Games champion and snowboard cross athlete Dominique Maltais."
- "Co-branded with DICK'S Sporting Goods, the spot is narrated by Plank and features an all-star roster of athletes including Vonn, Brown, long track speedskating medalist Shani Davis, NFL star Cam Newton, phenom PGA golfer Jordan Spieth, distinguished outdoorsman and star of the hit A&E show Duck Dynasty Willie Robertson, and members of the U.S. Bobsled team. The fast paced and high-energy montage shows athletes battling extreme conditions and frigid temperatures with the help of Under Armour's new ColdGear Infrared apparel line."
- "The newest chapter of the I WILL campaign will air during Monday Night Football on November 18th when the Carolina Panthers meet the New England Patriots at Carolina. It will continue to run on air and in digital platforms, including ESPN, NFL, Men's Health, Women's Health, Pandora, Stack and many more."
Takeaway: Plank and Vonn were all over the financial news networks yesterday. Make no mistake, Vonn is Plank's favorite athlete to use publicly (perhaps with the exception of Tom Brady) given that a) she's extremely marketable (to men), and b) her boyfriend is Nike's poster child.
UA - Under Armour unveils Canada's Olympic Snowboard Team getups
MW, JOSB - Eminence Says Men's Wearhouse Open to Talks With Jos. A. Bank
- "With just two days remaining before Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Inc.’s offer to buy the larger Men’s Wearhouse Inc. is set to expire, Ricky Sandler, chief executive officer of MW’s largest shareholder, Eminence Capital LLC, said that he’d received 'assurances' from MW ceo Douglas Ewert that the firm would review 'all strategic options available to the company, including a significant return of capital to shareholders and a merger with Jos. A Bank Clothiers Inc.'”
- "In a letter sent to Ewert on Tuesday and immediately made public by Eminence, Sandler wrote, “We also expect you and the board, given the explicit commitment to explore all options, to actively engage with [Bank] before their deadline of Nov. 14, 2013.” Their conversation took place on Monday, according to the letter."
Takeaway: I'm sure the CEO loves the fact that his largest shareholder is telling him how to do his job. But in fairness, Eminence has been a holder for the better part of three years and until recently, the stock has been treading water. That's what MW management has to deal with for being a public company. A little accountability never hurt anyone.
SHLD - New Kmart Rent-to-Own Program Turns $300 TV Into $415 Buy
- "Kmart is introducing a rent-to-own program charging the equivalent of 100-plus percent annual interest, a move into a business that has drawn criticism for hurting low-income consumers."
- "The Lease-to-Own program touts instant gratification -- customers without credit take a product home right away, make biweekly payments, then decide whether to buy out or return the product. A typical deal could turn a $300 television into a $415 purchase."
- "Kmart’s lease-to-own program...begins Nov. 22…"
Takeaway: Great…Kmart is becoming Rent-A-Center, just in time for the holidays. The sad thing is that the plan will probably work -- even though it shouldn’t.
VNCE - More Details Emerge on Vince IPO
- "The brand’s corporate parent, Apparel Holding Corp., said it plans to sell 10 million shares at $17 to $19 each in its initial public offering, according to a regulatory filing. That stake represents 28 percent of the company."
ODP - Roland C. Smith Appointed Chairman and CEO of Office Depot, Inc.
- "Office Depot, Inc...today announced the appointment of Roland C. Smith as Chairman and CEO, effective immediately."
- "Most recently, Smith was the Chief Executive Officer and President of Delhaize America, LLC...Previously, Smith was President and CEO of The Wendy’s Company; President and CEO ofWendy's/Arby's Group, Inc.; and CEO of Wendy's International, Inc."
HMB - H&M Grabs More Control of Factories Amid Bangladesh Unrest
- "H&M this year agreed to become the sole client of two factories in Bangladesh and one in Cambodia, helping convince building owners to offer satisfactory conditions and wages, Anna Gedda, H&M’s social sustainability manager, said."
- "H&M...has a long-term commitment to the plants, she said, without disclosing their location or the length of the exclusivity agreements."
What’s Selling: Outdoor
SAM’S OUTDOOR OUTFITTERS, Brattleboro, Vt.
- Chippewa Super Logger
- Keen Gypsum
- Haflinger felted clogs
Top trend: “We’re stoked to see the Chippewa Super Logger [workboot] sales picking up, because that means people are working,” said buyer Frank Gibbons.
BACK COUNTRY, Des Moines, Iowa
- Merrell Spice Glove
- Wolky Diana
- Merrell Rosella Lace
Top trend: “Customers are looking for styles that are a mix: a good winter shoe that holds up but has some style to it,” said Austin Zepeda, office manager. “They’re looking less for the traditional big, heavy, clunky things and [more] for hybrid styles.”
PEAK SPORTS, Corvallis, Ore.
- Sorel Joan of Arctic
- Merrell Moab Ventilator Waterproof
- Keen Targhee Mid Waterproof
Top trend: “Things are starting to cool off, and we’re seeing sales pick up in fashion winter boots,” said Melissa Cherbas, footwear buyer. “And what stays strong for us is multiport waterproof. It’s been our mainstay.”
US Senate Pushes Affordable Footwear Act
- "The Affordable Footwear Act (S.1633)…[would] assist low income families struggling to purchase affordable shoes due to what many argue is an inordinately high import duty, which can reach 65% in some instances. Compare this to the average import tax on consumer good in general: 1.4%. Since more than 98% of all shoes purchased in the US are imported, it’s all but impossible to avoid what some consider to be a hidden tax."
- "In total, if the bill should become a law experts estimate that it would eliminate as much as $800 million in duties on children’s shoes, a considerable chunk of the $2.3 billion in duties collected overall in 2012 for footwear."
- "Advocates of the Affordable Footwear Act argue that these inflated duties function as a regressive tax on the poorest families who are disproportionately disadvantaged by them. Combined with state taxes and retail markups, it’s not unusual that a pair of children’s boots, priced at $10 when it arrives at the US border, costs more than $30 at the store."
Visa: E-commerce sales up 17% in first 10 months of 2013
- "In the first 10 months of 2013, e-commerce sales are up 17% from the same period last year, according to the Visa Spending Intentions survey. To-date in 2013, Visa domestic e-commerce transactions exceeded one billion dollars on 211 days, an increase of 19% from 2012."
Bangladesh board to finalize RMG workers’ wage on Nov 21
- "The Bangladesh Wage Board is set to finalize the minimum salary structure for ready-made garment (RMG) workers on November 21, 2013, announced Labor Minister Rajiuddin Ahmed Raju after a recent meeting with the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA)."
- "The Government and the Wage Board will finally announce the minimum wage for the entry level RMG workers on November 21, where the Government would mention regulations for the workers as well as the owners, the Labor Minister said."
- "Mr. Ahmed Raju said the decision would be beneficial to both the workers as well as the employers and he urged the RMG workers to return to working in the factories, which were closed due to the labor unrest."
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“The tax on capital gains directly affects investment decisions, the mobility and flow of risk capital . . . the ease or difficulty experienced by new ventures in obtaining capital, and thereby the strength and potential for growth in the economy.” -President John F. Kennedy
As stock and bond market operators, we all know full well that the world is laden with risks. For any investment, there are macro risks, industry risks, and company risks, to name a few. As portfolio managers, there are then the universal risks of timing and sizing, which can be critical to performance and ultimately job risk.
On the macro level, I recently happened upon President Kennedy’s quote above and it made me ponder a risk we actually think about very frequently at Hedgeye – government risk. In this case, Kennedy’s quote refers to the specific issue of taxation and its impact on the economy.
There are some analysts out there who believe a dollar sent to the government is no different than a dollar left in the hands of the consumer or investor. Without getting into politics, hopefully the recent debacle over the website for the affordable care act reinforces this idea that government is inefficient at allocating capital, particularly to new businesses.
Back to the global macro grind...
The one government risk that is improving is the risk of rising federal deficits. As we highlight in the Chart of the Day, the federal deficit as a percentage of GDP peaked in fiscal 2009 (Obama’s first year in office) and has declined steadily to -4.1% in this fiscal year ending September 30th. On a notional level, the deficit has declined from -$1.4 trillion in 2009 to -$680 billion in 2013.
Certainly, running an almost $700 billion deficit into the fifth year of a “recovery” is nothing to get overly excited about. But one marginal positive point, which we do need to give our elected officials credit for, is that actual federal government outlays have declined sequentially for the last two years by -1.8% in 2012 and -2.4% in 2013. And, frankly, the obstructionist “Tea Partiers” probably deserve the most credit for this improvement.
From an investing perspective, this decline in deficit is certainly a positive tailwind for the U.S. dollar. It takes off the table certain questions of U.S. credit worthiness and the likelihood of future tax increases, which bode more positively for future GDP growth. As painful as the budget debates have been in the last couple of years, this novel approach of cutting spending and growing the economy has worked.
As quietly as the deficit as improved, the fourth branch of government, the Federal Reserve, appears to be no closer to getting out of the way. Instead of protecting against inflation, as has historically been the case, the Fed now seems overly focused on the omnipresent evil known as: deflation. The top headline on Bloomberg.com this morning says it all:
“Central Banks Risk Asset Bubbles in Battle with Deflation Danger”
The premise that deflation is dangerous resolves largely around the concept that as consumers begin to see that prices are falling they will hold off on purchases in anticipation of lower prices. Secondarily to this is the idea that in an inflationary environment, inflating assets will allow consumers, and the government, to pay off debts quicker.
Call me a simpleton, but personally I’m going to pay off more debts when I have more excess cash flow, not due to lower prices for basic goods (food and energy) or lower taxes. Even if I agreed with the concept of inflation as a way to pay off debts, the broader issue is changing the definition of CPI does not mean deflation exists. In fact, based on the MIT billion prices index, inflation has been solidly at over 2% for most of this year.
The biggest challenge with the ever moving inflation, GDP and employment goal posts of global central banks is that it breeds contempt and confusion, which ultimately leads to increased volatility (we’ve seen this in spades in the interest rate markets this year). The longer term issue of central banks trying to save us from every economic threat known to man is that when we do eventually unwind this extreme policy, it will be excruciatingly painful.
Another challenge of course is that central banks have limited room to stimulate from current levels. As Bridgewater's Ray Dalio recently wrote:
“Because central banks can only buy financial assets, quantitative easing drove up the prices of financial assets and did not have as a broad effect on the economy. The Fed’s ability to stimulate the economy became increasingly reliant on those who experience the increased wealth trickling it down to spending and incomes, which happened in decreasing degrees (for logical reasons, given who owned the assets and their deceasing marginal propensity to consume) . . . the marginal effects of wealth increase on economic activity have been declining significantly.”
In essence, the more central bankers attempt to stimulate from current levels the less and less impact it will have on real economic activity.
Luckily for us, not every central banker in the world wants to pursue an activist strategy and attempt to manage every ebb and flow of the global economy. Fellow Canadian and BoE Governor Mark Carney actually seems rather content to let the improving economy do its thing and not, like his ECB counterparts, double down on easing. As a result, Carney is also raising his 2014 GDP forecast for the United Kingdom to 2.8%. Long the pound remains one of our top macro ideas.
Speaking of activists, it was nice to see Dan Loeb from Third Point show up in one of our Best Ideas, Fed-Ex. The stock is up more than 25% since we added to our Best Ideas list on February 27th of this year and may have more room to run. If you’d like to learn about access to our Industrials Sector and go through our 60 page presentation on Fed-Ex, ping .
Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now:
UST 10yr Yield 2.66-2.81% (bullish)
SPX 1 (bullish)
FTSE 6 (bullish)
Shanghai Comp 2067-2044 (bearish)
VIX 12.22-14.51 (bearish)
USD 80.85-81.39 (bearish)
Pound 1.58-1.60 (bullish)
Euro 1.33-1.35 (neutral)
Keep your head up and stick on the ice,
Daryl G. Jones
Director of Research
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 13, 2013
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or 1.11% downside to 1748 and 0.58% upside to 1778.
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 2.42 from 2.45
- VIX closed at 12.82 1 day percent change of 2.31%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: MBA mortgage applications, Nov. 8, (pr. -7.0%)
- 7:10am: Bundesbank’s Weidmann speaks in Frankfurt
- 8:45am: Fed’s Pianalto speaks to women’s conf. in Philadelphia
- 11am: Fed to buy $1b-$1.5b TIPS in 2018-2043 sector
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $25b 52W bills; also 4W bills
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $24b 10Y notes
- 2pm: Monthly budget data, Oct., est. -$104.0b (pr. -$120.0b)
- 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories
- 7pm: Fed’s Bernanke hosts town hall meeting with educators
- 9am: President Barack Obama speaks to representatives of 566 federally recognized Native American groups
- 10am: House Homeland Security Cmte holds hearing on security of personal information entered on healthcare.gov website
- 12pm: Rep. Sander Levin, D-Mich., and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., hold roundtable on currency, other trade issues
- 2pm: House Financial Services panel hearing, “What Is Central About Central Banking?: A Study of International Models”
WHAT TO WATCH:
- J&J said to reach $4b settlement of hip-implant lawsuits
- LendingClub said to reach $2.3b valuation in DST funding
- Calpers said to enter buyout secondaries business to dodge fees
- PetroChina to buy Petrobras assets in Peru for $2.6b
- Blankfein says Goldman can boost ROE without major changes
- Starbucks to pay Mondelez $2.76b to settle coffee dispute
- Boeing to weigh options for 777X if union rejects deal
- China pledges bigger market role amid state dominance
- ICAP sees “marginally” higher full-yr profit on cost cuts
- Equity traders’ bonuses seen rising as rates salesmen face drop
- AMR-US Airways Washington focus opens airport to new carriers
- GIC said to invest in Time Warner headquarters in New York
- Wynn Resorts says U.S. hasn’t sought information on Macau gift
- Chegg raises $187.5m in textbook renter’s public offering
- U.K. unemployment falls to 7.6% in move toward BOE threshold
- Live Nation said in talks to buy Principle, Maverick: NYT
- Healthcare.gov may not work fully by Nov.’s end: Wash. Post
- CAE (CAE CN) 8:22am, C$0.15
- Canadian Solar (CSIQ) 6:46am, $0.60
- Loblaw (L CN) 6am, C$0.81
- Macy’s (M) 8am, $0.39 - Preview
- Meritor (MTOR) 8am, $0.09
- Metro (MRU CN) 7am, C$1.22
- Pinnacle Foods (PF) 8am, $0.35
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) 4:04pm, $0.51 - Preview
- Element Financial (EFN CN) 5:29pm, C$0.09
- Globalstar (GSAT) 4pm, $(0.06)
- Kinross Gold (K CN) 5pm, $0.03 - Preview
- Linamar (LNR CN) 4pm, C$0.66
- Millenial Media (MM) 4:05pm, $0.02
- NetApp (NTAP) 4:01pm, $0.63
- NetEase (NTES) 6pm, $1.36
- SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS) 4:01pm, $1.19
- Envision Healthcare (EVHC) Aft-mkt, $0.09
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Copper Reaches Three-Month Low on Speculation Stimulus to Slow
- Mutant Crops Drive BASF Sales Where Monsanto Denied: Commodities
- Silver Coin Sales by U.S. Mint Reach a Record, Topping 2011
- Brent-WTI Crude Spread Jumps to Seven-Month High on Libya Unrest
- Gold Advances From a One-Month Low on Signs of Increased Demand
- Cocoa Retreats as Pound Rallies on U.K. Labor Data; Coffee Falls
- Soybeans Drop for First Time in Six Days on Increasing Supplies
- Thailand Spurns IMF’s Call to Rethink Rice-Purchase Program
- Palm Oil Climbs to One-Week High on Increasing Biodiesel Demand
- Rebar Futures Fall With China’s Leaders Silent on Policy Details
- Barrick Share Sale No Twitter as Gold Snubbed: Corporate Canada
- Black Treasure in Poland Clouds Warming Talks: Carbon & Climate
- Shanghai-LME Zinc Arbitrage at Highest in Over 3 Years: BI Chart
- Palm Imports by India Expanding as Crop Delay Cuts Reserves
The Hedgeye Macro Team
Client Talking Points
BANK OF ENGLAND
The UK is seeing the same 2-stroke pro-growth economic engine that both the US and Europe was seeing before central planners intervened and banned gravity (#StrongPound + Gilt #RatesRising = falling unemployment and rising consumption growth). BOE Governor Mark Carney says he likes that. Good! He's raising his GDP forecast for the UK for 2014 to 2.8%. Buy The Pound (see note below).
The USD Index took another run at Hedgeye TREND resistance of $81.38 yesterday. It failed (again). This makes sense because Janet Yellen will likely remind Washington and the rest of the world who she is in her testimony tomorrow in DC. That ought to be dovish (hence Bearish for The Buck). It is also bullish for Gold. Yes, I bought it back on the oversold signal again yesterday.
The Shanghai Composite is getting smoked. It's back into its down -5.2% year-to-date hole again as Western short-termers don’t like the longer-term duration of Chinese policy plans. Overall, Asia is weakening again with Hong Kong down -1.9%, Indonesia -1.8%, and Korea breaking its Hedgeye TREND line overnight at -1.6%.
|FIXED INCOME||8%||INTL CURRENCIES||20%|
Top Long Ideas
Our bullish call on the British Pound was borne out of our Q4 Macro themes call. We believe the health of a nation’s economy is reflected in its currency. We remain bullish on the regime change at the BOE, replacing Governor Mervyn King with Mark Carney. In its October meeting, the Bank of England voted unanimously (9-0) to keep rates on hold and the asset purchase program unchanged. If we look at the GBP/USD cross, we believe the UK’s hawkish monetary and fiscal policy should appreciate the GBP, as Bernanke/Yellen continue to burn the USD via delaying the call to taper.
WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow. We think that the prevailing bearish view is very backward looking and leaves out a big piece of the WWW story, which is that integration of these brands into the WWW portfolio will allow the former PLG group to achieve what it could not under its former owner (most notably – international growth, and leverage a more diverse selling infrastructure in the US). Furthermore it will grow without needing to add the capital we’d otherwise expect as a stand-alone company – especially given WWW’s consolidation from four divisions into three -- which improves asset turns and financial returns.
Financials sector senior analyst Jonathan Casteleyn continues to carry T. Rowe Price as his highest-conviction long call, based on the long-range reallocation out of bonds with investors continuing to move into stocks. T Rowe is one of the fastest growing equity asset managers and has consistently had the best performing stock funds over the past ten years.
Three for the Road
QUOTE OF THE DAY
If you are going through hell, keep going. -Winston Churchill
STAT OF THE DAY
A painting by artist Francis Bacon sold for $142,405,000 on Tuesday, breaking the record as the most expensive piece of art ever auctioned. "Three Studies of Lucian Freud" was sold after six minutes of bidding in the room and on the phone at Christie's in New York City.
Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros
Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.