Takeaway: With respect to the intermediate-term TREND, we like South Korean equities on the long side and Chinese equities on the short side.
This note was originally published September 03, 2013 at 18:13 in Macro
HUNTING FOR ASIAN EQUITY ALPHA:
LONG SOUTH KOREA VS. SHORT CHINA?
- At 14.8% and 15.6%, respectively, China and South Korea represent the two largest geographic weights in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM). More importantly, we think the latter is poised to take market share from the former, as we believe the South Korean and Chinese equity markets are poised to diverge with respect to the intermediate-term TREND.
- All told, we think South Korean equities look increasingly attractive with respect to the intermediate-term TREND, while the attractiveness of Chinese equities on that same duration is poised to roll over after a proactively-predictable dead-cat bounce in both market prices and Chinese economic data.
- This view is supported by our quantitative risk management setup, as the KOSPI Index is bullish TREND and the Shanghai Composite Index is bearish TREND. As an aside, we think the latter index is likely to threaten a TREND line breakout over the next few weeks on the strength of what is likely to be the last month of sequentially accelerating growth data (SEP), but ultimately fail to confirm any move north of our 2,123 TREND line.
- From an intermediate-term TREND perspective: Chinese growth is poised to roll over in 4Q as inflation continues to accelerate from a low base; South Korean growth should continue its solid trend of acceleration as inflation accelerates from an extremely low base.
- From a long-term TAIL perspective: Structural banking sector headwinds are likely to continue to depress Chinese economic growth; South Korea’s corporate earnings outlook is increasingly complicated by the likely resurgence of Japan Inc.
***Tomorrow (Wednesday, September 4th) at 11:30am EDT, please join the Hedgeye Macro Team for a ~15min conference call titled “Paddling Upstream?: Navigating #EmergingOutflows”. On the call, Senior Analyst Darius Dale will host a live Q&A session regarding recent developments in EM financial markets and our outlook for those asset classes and the economies that underpin them. CLICK HERE to download the accompanying 80-slide presentation, which we will allude to throughout tomorrow’s call. We look forward to your participation and fielding any follow-up questions you might have.***
At 14.8% and 15.6%, respectively, China and South Korea represent the two largest geographic weights in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM). More importantly, we think the latter is poised to take market share from the former, as we believe the South Korean and Chinese equity markets are poised to diverge with respect to the intermediate-term TREND.
We’ll begin our exposition of this thesis with the assumption that you’re familiar with our latest work in the context of our #EmergingOutflows and #AsianContagion themes. To the extent you are not, we encourage you to review the aforementioned 80-slide presentation; we detail our outlook for the Chinese economy on slides 6-11, 38 and 57-72; we detail our outlook for the South Korean economy on slides 6-11 and 38.
With that knowledge in hand, we think now is the time to buy dips in the Korean equity market and that we’re in a 2-4 week window of loading up on the short side of Chinese equities again, as the current dead-cat bounce has become increasingly long in the tooth.
This view is supported by our quantitative risk management setup, as the KOSPI Index is bullish TREND and the Shanghai Composite Index is bearish TREND. As an aside, we think the latter index is likely to threaten a TREND line breakout over the next few weeks on the strength of what is likely to be the last month of sequentially accelerating growth data (SEP), but ultimately fail to confirm any move north of our 2,123 TREND line.
From a GIP perspective, the South Korean economy is likely to reside in Quad #2 for the balance of the year, while the Chinese economy looks to be transitioning from Quad #2 to Quad #4 in the upcoming quarter, which is a headwind for equity market appreciation.
The aforementioned GIP forecasts are determined by our predictive tracking algorithms for each country’s respective growth and inflation statistics and, like any model, are subject to varying degrees of tracking error – though a lot less than whatever the sell-side has been using to forecast growth, inflation and policy deltas over the past 3-5 years!
As such, we must rigorously track the relevant high-frequency economic data for clues to the degree and directionality of said tracking error – to the extent there is any:
CHINA: GROWTH POISED TO ROLL OVER AS INFLATION ACCELERATES FROM A LOW BASE
- The respective trends in the YoY deltas of the monthly averages of rebar, iron ore and coking coal, as well as the respective trends in Manufacturing PMI, New Orders PMI, New Export Orders PMI, Real Estate Climate Index, Industrial Production, Retail sales and FDI support an improving near-term growth outlook. The respective trends in the monthly average of China’s sovereign yield spread (10Y-2Y), Backlogs of Orders PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI, Fixed Assets Investment, Total Social Financing, Monthly New Loans, Industrial Sales, Industrial Profits, M2 Money Supply, Consumer Confidence, Exports, Imports, the Trade Balance and sovereign fiscal expenditures all suggest the current uptick in Chinese growth may be short-lived.
- The respective trends in headline CPI, Food CPI, headline PPI, Raw Materials PPI and the trend in the YoY deltas in the currency market all support a hawkish inflation outlook.
- The trend in OIS with respect to the benchmark rate supports a demonstrably tighter monetary policy outlook, though we’d argue much of this is due to the market’s expectation of persistent liquidity constraints (more on this below).
SOUTH KOREA: GROWTH SOLIDLY ACCELERATING AS INFLATION ACCELERATES FROM AN EXTREMELY LOW BASE
- The respective trends in Non-Manufacturing BSI, Employment, Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence, Capacity Utilization, CapEx, Construction Orders, Exports and Imports all support an improving growth outlook.
- The respective trends in headline CPI and headline PPI both support a hawkish inflation outlook, as does the trend in the YoY deltas in the currency market.
- The trend in OIS with respect to the benchmark rate supports a marginally tighter monetary policy outlook.
In addition to tracking high-frequency economic data, we must also have a good handle on the idiosyncratic factors that may influence or dictate a country’s 1-3 year GIP outlook:
CHINA: STRUCTURAL HEADWINDS AREN’T FULLY UNDERSTOOD BY MARKET PARTICIPANTS – LET ALONE PRICED IN!
- Across the maturity curve, interest rate swaps continue to trade well above the current cost of capital in China. In the past, we’ve interpreted this market signal as a sign that monetary policy tightening was increasingly probable over the intermediate term. We don’t view that scenario as likely at the current juncture; rather, we believe the market sees what we see: a prolonged erosion of financial liquidity, at the margins, will continue to apply upward pressure to money market rates over the intermediate-to-long term.
- That erosion of financial liquidity can be further identified via recent activity in China’s local currency bond market. In the QTD, there have been 27.1B CNY ($4B) of pulled bond sales, while AUG’s 240.9B CNY of issuance is down -17% MoM. Moreover, 10Y AAA bond yields have widened +53bps QTD to a ~2Y high of 5.67% and the spread between AAA yields and Chinese sovereign yields just hit a 3M-high of 168bps wide. Lastly, China’s 10Y-2Y sovereign yield spread has widened modestly off its JUN mini-crisis spread lows, but it has yet to buck the trend of tightening that has been in place for over one year now.
- The mere fact that both ends of China’s sovereign debt market is selling off should be interpreted as supportive of our view that the Chinese economy will be increasingly liquidity constrained, at the margins, as NPLs – both of the reported and unreported (i.e. debt rollovers/evergreening) genres – accelerate sustainably. A dour secular outlook for “capital” flows via the trade surplus is also supportive of our liquidity constraint thesis.
SOUTH KOREA: HOW WILL THE MARKET CONTINUE TO PRICE IN INCREASED COMPETITION FROM JAPAN?
- Just isolating its top three export markets, South Korea competes head-to-head with Japan in 41.6% of its exports, so naturally, the JPY’s -24.1% YoY decline vs. the CNY and its -21.3% YoY decline vs. the USD has weighted on the outlook for South Korean export growth. That’s a headwind for broader economic growth as exports are equivalent to 56.5% of South Korean GDP.
- Perhaps more importantly with respect to the thesis we are attempting to explicate, is the fact that an outlook for secular yen weakness directly calls into question the earnings outlook for KOSPI Index. Specifically, both South Korea and Japan are particularly exposed to the global CapEx cycle (Tech and Industrials) from an equity index perspective at 40.6% and 28% of total market cap, respectively (vs. a regional average of 20.2%).
- To the extent customers are competing on price in this naturally deflationary segment of the global economy, it can be argued that a meaningful portion of corporate profit growth in Japan (+24% YoY in 2Q vs. +6% YoY in 1Q) is likely to come at the expense of corporate profit growth in South Korea. It’s hard to be long and strong South Korean equities with respect to the long-term TAIL if you share our bearish bias on the Japanese yen (we think the USD/JPY cross can traverse its way to 125 over the next 12-18 months).
All told, we think South Korean equities look increasingly attractive with respect to the intermediate-term TREND, while the attractiveness of Chinese equities on that same duration is poised to roll over after a proactively-predictable dead-cat bounce in both market prices and Chinese economic data.
We look forward to your participation on tomorrow’s flash call.
Takeaway: We believe RT is in serious trouble and is likely headed for Chapter 11.
Today, Ruby Tuesday announced the resignation of its Chairman Matt Drapkin. Drapkin, who recently sold 1.45mm shares, joined the board of RT three years ago as an activist that, along with Carlson Capital, was intent on enhancing shareholder value.
He is now being replaced by the company’s current CEO James Buettgen, who left Darden in December of 2012 in order to resuscitate the Ruby Tuesday brand. Despite an attempt to revive the business, RT’s operating fundamentals remain some of the worst in the casual dining industry. To make matters worse, there appears to be little hope for a turnaround – RT has only seen one quarter of positive same-restaurant sales, on a two-year basis, since FY3Q08.
Furthermore, we believe the largest impediment to the revitalization of this fourth tier Bar & Grill brand is Chili’s, which is run by a very strong management team. In EAT’s recent quarterly earnings call and our subsequent call with CFO Guy Constant, the company announced its intent to pursue an aggressive strategy in order to grow same-restaurant sales. This includes increasing TV media spend to support new products (including the upcoming Tex-Mex platform), implementing new online ordering for its “to go” business, and rolling out its delivery service.
Importantly, Chili’s will be moving its successful re-image program to the state of Florida in the coming months. Currently, 10.9% of RT’s system-wide domestic units are in the state of Florida, making it the company’s most important state. This means that RT is heavily exposed to any success that Chili’s may have in the region. If Chili’s is able to steal significant market share in Florida, RT’s business will suffer. If the past is any indication, this could very well happen. Look at BJRI’s recent quarterly results – they were downright ugly. We believe that Chili’s re-image program in California had a significant impact on market share trends in the region. On the margin, this is all good news for EAT and their core brand, Chili’s.
RT’s management team has guided to an improvement in sales directionally throughout the year and the street has reflected that in its estimates. We are highly suspect that this will unfold as planned, and believe that further disappointments are likely.
Capex has been reduced significantly since FY08, as the company is having a difficult time making ends meet. EBITDA was negative in 1Q14 and the company continues to lose money. We could see a major restructuring charge coming and believe that a significant number of store closings are needed. If not, the company could be headed for Chapter 11.
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.67%
For a second straight quarter there was significant buzz around Big Tobacco’s electronic cigarette offerings. While LO remains ahead of the pack through its acquisition of Blu in early 2012, both MO and RAI joined the category through test market launches in individual states in Q3, and PM reaffirmed its plan to launch an e-cig in 2016/7.
A big surprise in the quarter was Blu’s market share gain to 49% vs 40% last quarter, on sales growth of +11% sequentially and +350% year-over-year to $63MM in the quarter. This growth was driven squarely on severe discounting and couponing, resulting in break-even cost for the company, confirming CEO Kessler’s goal to forgo short-term profits for long term gains. LO’s decision to buy SKYCIG in early October (2013), a three year old UK based e-cig maker with ~300,000 users that has mimicked Blu’s product packaging design, provides LO with an international platform, albeit with a much smaller size, scale, or relationship of Blu in the U.S. LO’s estimated the “fragmented” UK market to be worth an estimated $300MM in 2013 and hinted that it would assess opportunities to scale across the EU down the road.
Much of the commentary from management in the quarter centered around the uncertainty of the FDA’s pending regulation on e-cigs.
We’re very pleased to further the e-cig discussion in an expert call with Craig Weiss, CEO of NJOY, this Wednesday (10/30) at 1pm EST. NJOY, a private company, is a leading e-cig manufacturer of traditional tobacco and menthol offerings that are sold nationwide in 70,000 stores. Email me () or , if you’d like to join the call.
LO: it’s clear CEO Murray Kessler’s e-cig strategy is to forgo short-term profits for long term gains. The company sold its new rechargeable starter kits (they began shipping in Q2) for break-even in the quarter, which increased its retail market share to 49% vs 40% last quarter! With $63MM of e-cig sales (vs $14MM in the year-ago quarter and $57MM last quarter), Blu earned a gross profit of $15MM with SG&A of $15MM to net operating profit of $0. From Kessler’s comments, it appears that this break-even strategy could be expected for at least the next two quarters as LO attempts to boost awareness, trialing, and repeat purchasing of Blu. Other takeaways include:
- Kessler reiterated forecast for 2013 e-cig sales to be worth around $1-2B at retail; no hard estimate for online.
- Expects e-cigs to have a 1% impact on total cigarette category in 2013.
- Believes that the deciding factor on how big the category can be is what comes out on the regulatory environment.
- If there is reasonable regulation that allows for marketing and advertising, it has already been proven that the e-cigs category can drive strong repeat purchasing.
- While technology will get better over time, it is not the deciding factor.
- If the FDA is overly strict, just like cigarettes requiring substantial equivalence, the category will grow more slowly.
- Quarterly product mix (in dollars): Disposables 47%; Cartomizers 27%; and Kits 26%.
- In the quarter they saw the amount of rechargeable kits sold up dramatically compared to old format (discounted price also clearly driving purchases).
- Blu now in 127,000 retail outlets.
- Expects strong margins down the road for the company and retailers.
- UK Market: estimated at $300MM with no clear leader. Could be another $1B market, but depends on the regulatory market – so far so good.
- Believes SKYCIG acquisition expands its global presence, although it will not have a roll-out or growth curve like Blu in the U.S. given the lack of retail relationships and sales force.
- Kessler contextualized the purchase of SKYCIG acquisition as a one-off, with plans to grow organically if it were to expand its reach across the EU.
- Optimistic that the UK Parliament endorsed e-cigs for their harm reduction and has moved it away from being regulated as a medicinal product.
- In the UK, the company can advertise e-cigs on TV, until at least 2016, but advertising regulations vary across EU countries.
- On UK and EU Rollout – there has been no decision to roll out SKYCIGs to the rest of Europe. Has intention for Blu to become a global brand. Bullish that SKYCIG already has the same packaging as Blu (essentially they copied Blu from inception), and now is focused on increasing the sales force of SKYCIG.
MO: brought its e-cig brand MarkTen to the marketplace in August (to 3,000 retail stores) in its first test market in Indiana, which CEO Marty Barrington described as a very successful launch with good product feedback and consumer insight. The company announced plans to increase its spend on MarkTen in Q4 and to distribute to 2,000 stores in Arizona.
Marty suggested it was too early to talk about the performance on MarkTen. He said they are seeing dual use, as some adult smokers try e-vapor, but results are inconclusive. On the category he said that while it has grown very quickly off low base, it is unclear if it can sustain this growth level. And in similar fashion to the reporting from Big Tobacco, he stressed that as products get better and more acceptable, he’d expect greater transition, but much depends on how they’re regulated by the FDA – heavy regulation would certainly not encourage adoption.
He also said it was too early to tell if e-cigs will cannibalize smokeless or estimate the share they could take from traditional cigarettes.
RAI: If you don’t think e-cigs matter to big tobacco – think again! On the earnings call, the progress on VUSE, the company’s first e-cig that was launched in July in the test market of Colorado, was the first brand that management reviewed. CEO Delen said that VUSE is getting a great reception with leading market position in the state (we’d expect so given the strong couponing). He noted strong repeat purchasing and that its replacement cartridge was the largest selling SKU, and believes that VUSE can attain cigarette-like margins over the medium term. Further information on its plans around a national roll-out were indicated to come at next month’s Investor Day meeting.
Delen indicated that he has no further information on when the FDA may come out with a ruling on e-cigs (expected October timeline) and/or if the government shutdown will delay the announcement. He did note that RAI engaged with the FDA on VUSE, and the meeting was heavily attended by the FDA.
Given that Colorado is a test market, it’s hard to extrapolate the costs for a nationwide roll-out – certainly it’s a competitive category and RAI is playing slightly behind the 8-ball. We look forward to monitoring VUSE’s performance.
PM: CFO Olczak is positive on the EU Tobacco Directive as it relates to regulating e-cigs as tobacco products and not as medical devices. He reiterated that PM is working on a few alternative products (including an e-cig) that are slated for full commercialization in 2016-17. With regards to PM being late to the E-cig show, Olczak said that most e-cig makers now focus much of their attention on marketing, and less on the product, and PM’s focused on going to market with the right product, not about being the first mover.
While we think next generation products will turn more attention to product development to mimicking even closer a traditional cigarette, we would be concerned that PM’s big tobacco rivals and a few select private players also have significant budgets and R&D underway to bring better e-cig products to the market (and perhaps sooner than PM’s extended timeline). The caveat here is that as regulatory frameworks around e-cigs evolve globally, the landscape, and players involved, are subject to change.
Title: Expert Call with the CFO of EAT
Speakers: Howard Penney, Hedgeye Risk Management; Guy Constant, Brinker International
Subscriber Link: CLICK HERE
- The evolution of the casual dining industry
- How Brinker adapted to these secular changes
- The future of the casual dining industry
- The difficulty in operating nine different brands
- The whittling down of the company
- The birth of operational efficiency
- The evolution of the value proposition
- Leveraging technology to drive traffic
- Future technological initiatives
- The development of the delivery business
- Better executing on pizza and flatbreads
- The Mexican food opportunity
- The current reimaging initiative
THE EVOLUTION OF THE CASUAL DINING INDUSTRY AND BRINKER INTERNATIONAL:
Guy Constant: “It’s been an interesting time since 2006, when the industry, in our view, in the late 2000s entered into a mature phase. The industry being casual dining, in this case, entered into a mature phase and how we reacted to that initially and how we’ve reacted to it since has been an interesting journey for our company. But since, really, late 2009, early 2010, when we realized that the historic way that we had operated and been successful and had won in casual dining had changed, and we thought permanently, and continue to believe permanently, we realized there was a different way we need to compete and operate in this business.
And so, for us, that meant focusing on our core Chili’s business, improving our business model and preparing for an environment where we felt in the future would result in a lower comp sales environment for casual dining, lower demand for the consumer going forward. And so, that’s the journey we’ve really been on, it started with us stopping growth of our restaurant concepts.
It followed very quickly with the pairing down of our portfolio from what was as high as nine brands in the mid-2000s all the way down to two brands today, that being Chili’s and Maggiano’s, followed very quickly by an aggressive effort from us to improve margins in the Chili’s business, which had deteriorated pretty dramatically from the early 2000s to the late 2000s, really with average annual volumes that were very similar when you looked at those two periods. Margins at Chili’s, in particular, we’re down over 600 bps if you compare 2010 to 2002, again at similar unit volumes. So we knew there was opportunity to turn the margins of the business around and do what, really, every company, every manufacturing company in America has done over the past 20 years.”
DRAWING A PARALLEL TO THE CURRENT PORTFOLIO OF DARDEN:
Guy Constant: “I think what can happen, at least what happened in our business, I certainly can’t discuss what happened in other businesses, but certainly in our business, with particularly Chili’s being so much larger than all of the other brands that we’ve had historically, was that if you were to look at the 20 best ideas for improving the Chili’s business, number 20 on that list was always worth more money than number 1 on the list of any of the smaller brands.
And so, you were faced with this quandary that the best idea to improve one of our other brands, which you’d want to pay a lot of attention to since it was such a good idea, still wasn’t worth as much as an idea that was well down the list at Chili’s. So, it could get easy to have the Chili’s part of the business say, “Why are you working on the smaller brands when there is so much opportunity at Chili’s?” and it would be very easy to be at the smaller brand and say, “You’re obviously either trying to turn us into Chili’s or all of your focus is on Chili’s and you’re not paying enough attention to us.”
And so, over time, while we’re sitting in the middle of that, you could never really point to gosh the extra brands are distracting or they’re impacting our business, the end result was that you could see it in the results of the overall business that we weren’t performing as well as we should. Is it a coincidence that we moved our portfolio down now to two brands, that our results got better? Maybe. But I actually think there is some correlation there to the ability to focus solely on Chili’s, which has always been the best part, and the most profitable part, of our business, and leverage that as best we could in order to compete in this new environment.”
How difficult was it to manage all 9 brands?
- Characterize it is as the “impasse of brain space”
- You end up paying more attention to the larger brands and the smaller brands are unable to fulfill their potential
- Performance suffers
- Think there is a correlation between moving the portfolio down to two brands and generating stronger returns
What technological initiatives have you undertaken in order to drive traffic?
- In regard to kitchen and manufacturing technology, they are in the 6th inning; certainly more to be done, but they have made strong progress already
- In regard to front of the house operations, they are in the 1st or 2nd inning
- The primary differentiator in the casual dining industry is service
- Technology allows businesses to enhance service
- Fast casual is so attractive, because it is extremely convenient
- Companies must figure out how to leverage technology in order to enhance convenience
What are the primary advantages of the tabletop technology?
- It is an opportunity to enhance service
- It allows for more convenience, by allowing the customer to control when to pay and leave the restaurant
- There is an average check improvement
- Tends to drive sales around beverages, desserts, and add-ons
- Allows for useful feedback from guests
- Allows the company to expand their database and leverage it through customer relationship marketing activities
How has the value proposition evolved over time?
- Value proposition was broken from 2005-2006
- Brinker, and casual dining as a whole, had low and declining value scores
- By 2006, there was a wide gap between the prices of QSRs and casual dining companies
- Fast casual filled this gap, which is one reason they have been so successful
- Casual dining companies need to focus on investing in quality food and menu innovation
What potential do you see in the delivery side of the business?
- Delivery is currently 10% of business, despite being poorly executed
- Delivery orders typically fill the gaps between peak hours
- There is a large amount of upside
- Execution was holding them back
- Cutting down the menu and linking up with kitchen technology in order to give accurate cook times will help drive the business and enhance the overall operation
How can you better execute on pizza and flatbreads?
- There is an opportunity to drive incremental traffic from loyal guests by increasing frequency of visits or driving their ticket up
- They need to do a better job marketing to non-loyal, newer school type customers
- Made a commitment to invest slightly more in media
How will Mexican contribute to sales?
- Mexican will be an innovative message from them, more so than a value message
- Have tested all the items
- Need to make a few, low cost adjustments in their kitchens in order to ensure operational execution is top notch
How far along are you in the remodeling process?
- Have 50-65% of the system done; plan to have 75% done by June
- Should be done with all of the company reimages by the end of FY14 or the end of 1Q15
- Finished remodels in California around 6-9 months ago
- Have seen very good results from these remodels
- Still need to remodel most of Florida and part of Texas
- Capex will come down significantly as the remodeling program unwinds
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