An epic 48 hours. Witness the huge move in the US Dollar. The levels in our Hegeye model matter folks. Big time. The USD Index TREND line recaptures (= $81.21) as the Yen (vs USD) TREND line snapped ... fast (96.17). Everything else we call our "Waterfall" model of globally interconnected risk followed that along with ripping 10yr UST rates. Getting the dollar right matters.
Ka-boom! Gold is officially crashing again (down -3.5% this morning and -22.2% YTD). Why? Gold hates US growth expectations rising and the rising bond yields that have been front-running the Bernanke Fed. This morning’s move isn’t new – it’s called capitulation. Meanwhile, oil failing at our $106.22 TREND line is good news for consumption – won’t matter for US stocks until we re-test 1605-1610 support.
It's official. The least obvious short call in 2013 Macro is becoming much more obvious now that every Asian and Latin American Equity Index has snapped our intermediate-term TREND line. Russia and Brazil? Now down -16% and -22% YTD, respectively. #Pain. Let us know if you want to review our #EmergingOutflows slide deck from a few months back. We called this.
|FIXED INCOME||0%||INTL CURRENCIES||18%|
Financials sector head Josh Steiner is the Street’s head bull on residential mortgage originator/servicer Nationstar, projecting $9 in earnings for the company in 2014. This is well above the company’s own guidance range, which tops out at around $7.50. NSM had a successful start to the year as it won servicing bids on substantial mortgage portfolios. They also reported significant increases in their profit margins on those portfolios, and double-digit increases in their own originations. Housing prices are ramping significantly higher, as Steiner predicted, as demand continues to exceed supply in both new and existing homes. Steiner says this quality mortgage company could ride the crest of a sustained wave of sector improvement.
Gaming, Leisure & Lodging sector head Todd Jordan says Melco International Entertainment stands to benefit from a major new European casino rollout. An MPEL controlling entity, Melco International Development, is eyeing participation in a US$1 billion gaming project in Barcelona. The new project, to be called “BCN World,” will start with a single resort with 1,100 hotel beds, a casino, and a theater. Longer term, the objective is for BCN World to have six resorts. The first property is scheduled to open for business in 2016.
WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow. We think that the prevailing bearish view is very backward looking and leaves out a big piece of the WWW story, which is that integration of these brands into the WWW portfolio will allow the former PLG group to achieve what it could not under its former owner (most notably – international growth, and leverage a more diverse selling infrastructure in the US). Furthermore it will grow without needing to add the capital we’d otherwise expect as a stand-alone company – especially given WWW’s consolidation from four divisions into three -- which improves asset turns and financial returns.
Hedgeye Risk Management reiterates its 6mth old call to have 0% of your assets in Commodities and/or Fixed Income
A real decision is measured by the fact that you've taken a new action. If there's no action, you haven't truly decided.
- Tony Robbins
On August 18, 1913, on an unbiased roulette wheel at Monte Carlo, evens came up 26 times in a row. The probability of this occurring is 1 in 136,823,184.
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“I wonder how much it would take to buy a soap bubble, if there were only one in the world.”
The last of the central planning bubbles left in the world is now popping. It’s called the bubble in super sovereign debt.
Everything else that’s imploding this morning was already popping. That’s not new news.
Gold crashing today isn’t new news either. It’s called capitulation.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
Our Waterfall metaphor was right because the big macro factors signaling this move in bonds was measurable. As both the VOLUME (of debt) and VELOCITY (rates rising) started rising at a faster rate, you could see Bernanke’s policy decision approaching the dam.
And no, it wasn’t a sign to buy the damn dip. At least not in Gold or US Treasuries, that is…
I don’t think it’s helpful to give you live quotes and/or pictures of this bifurcation point in Global Macro market history. Neither do I think you need me to rant and/or remind you on why we saw this Waterfall coming. It’s time to tell you what we’d do next.
Most of the time, risk management starts with the what not-to-dos:
Once you cross all that stuff off your list, you run out of places to put your money.
So, slowly, from here you can start to buy back:
Remember, it’s summer time – and the list of options is narrow – so take your time.
Since US Equities are really the only place we‘d like you to be (for now), here are the key levels to watch:
Rates rising at an accelerating rate is big risk, primarily because consensus was not positioned for it. Again, going back to our favorite thermodynamic metaphor (VOLUME + VELOCITY of water rising at an exponential rate as you approach the dam), what we have here this morning is a lot of unprepared white water tourists getting really wet.
If you’ve never tried this at home, don’t try Niagra first. Class VI Whitewater Rafting in West Virginia will get you all the hands on experience you’ll need. When you participate in markets, you have to respect that there are other people (who may not be able to swim) in your raft. And the risk associated with decisions they are forced to make happens fast.
If you have already hedged your Commodities and/or Fixed Income exposures this morning, you are on the shore. So take the time to think through the opportunity that you are staring at downstream:
I am sure Bernanke is a wonderful father and a nice man. But, folks, he has failed in being able to arrest gravity. He had no business promising people smoothing economic gravity was possible. That was his mistake. That’s his legacy. It’s also yesterday’s news now. The last of his soapy bubbles is finally popping. And there’s no price where he can buy “price stability” in bonds back.
Our immediate-term Risk Ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, USD/YEN, UST 10yr Yield, VIX, and the SP500 are now $1, $104.08-106.64, $81.21-82.18, 96.17-98.83, 2.21-2.46%, 14.76-18.98, and 1, respectively.
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
This note was originally published at 8am on June 06, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.
“One main factor in the upward trend of animal life has been the power of wandering.”
-Alfred North Whitehead
Rather than get all googly eyed about modern day central planners who are long of social science dogma and short of math, I tend to wander backwards when looking for direction. History is my contextual guide, and so are her credible sources.
Whitehead was one of the British math guys (1861-1947) who wandered outside of academia’s box. He co-authored Principia Mathematica with one of the world’s premier strategists (Bertrand Russell) and was an early adopter of what we now call Chaos Theory.
From considering the metaphysical global macro market to the process you have developed to absorb it, what is that you do when markets go against you? What do we do when immediate-term TRADEs wander from the intermediate-term TRENDs? Bull or bear? Personally, I am ok with being called an animal.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
I had a very bad day yesterday. Yes, for those of us who timestamp every move we make, they do happen. But what, precisely, was happening? Was my first move to do more of what wasn’t working? Or was it a better decision to wait and watch?
The good news about today is that Mr Market gives us direct feedback on however we answered those questions. Right or wrong, we are tasked with always questioning the behavioral side of our decision making process. #evolve
To put yesterday’s -1.38% drop (SP500) in context, it was the 5th worst day for US stocks in 2013:
When I was a younger man trading on simple moving averages and voodoo technical charting systems that my bosses would push down on me, one-factor price moves could really throw me for an emotional loop.
Now I use a baseline 3-factor model that includes PRICE/VOLUME/VOLATILITY parameters and predictive tracking algorithms. And it’s that last little critter (VOLATILITY) that helps me sometimes front-run the proactively predictable behavior of machines.
What all 5 of the worst US stock market down days have in common is front-month US Equity volatility (VIX) seeing a very short-term capitulation to lower TREND duration highs. Here’s that history of VIX closing prices:
And yesterday, the VIX closed +7.6% on the day at 17.50.
So, what say you Mr Mucker, TRADE or TREND? That’s easy:
For those of you who are new to reading my rants, in our model TRADEs are 3 weeks or less and TRENDs are 3 months or more. I built the model this way so that I don’t let my emotions allow me to wander too far away from fundamental research trends.
Freaking out and selling at every higher-low within a bullish TREND is called losing money. And since that would violate Rule #1 in our risk management process, we don’t want to be like that.
Why is the intermediate-term TREND for US stocks bullish and for fear bearish? I think the fundamental research answer to this quantitatively prefaced question is crystal clear – what everyone lives in fear of (#GrowthSlowing) is now #GrowthAccelerating.
Darius Dale will show you this in our Chart of The Day (6 month TREND duration charts)
If the VIX can’t close above 18.99 and the SP500 can’t snap my TREND support line of 1577, what I’ll be doing from here is doing more of what we have been doing for the past 6 months (buying the damn dips in US Consumption and shorting almost everything Commodities).
No, that doesn’t mean I bought all the way down yesterday. It actually meant I did a whole lot of nothing. The SP500’s TRADE line broke, so why hurry when I can either buy lower or buy on another TRADE breakout above 1624 SPX when my convictions are confirmed?
Of all the bubbles Bernanke has helped perpetuate, one of the biggest is fear. The fear of change (rates rising) in this market is pervasive. But don’t wander too far from the TREND here my friends. Shorting fear and buying growth has been right; stay with it until the mathematical signals collide with the fundamentals. If they change, we will.
Our immediate-term Risk Ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, USD/YEN, UST 10yr Yield, VIX, and the SP500 are now $1361-1419, $100.24-104.42, $82.21-83.32, 98.71-103.02, 2.01-2.23%, 15.31-17.91, and 1601-1624, respectively.
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.