CONCLUSION: Chinese economic growth is slowing at a faster rate as of late while market-based indicators of monetary easing speculation are accelerating, leaving the Chinese economy at a perfectly confusing fundamental juncture. We do, however, continue to side with our research process – the net output of which points to a bottoming/inflection point in Chinese growth here in 2Q.
VIRTUAL PORTFOLIO: Long Chinese equities (CAF).
The month of APR certainly brought some fairly sour economic growth data out of China. The headline data was as follows:
- APR Industrial Production: +9.3% YoY vs. +11.9% prior
- APR Retail Sales: +14.1% YoY vs. +15.2% prior
- APR Fixed Assets Investments YTD: +20.2% YoY vs. +20.9% prior
- APR M2 Money Supply: +12.8% YoY vs. +13.4% prior
- APR New Loans: +CNY681.8B MoM vs. +CNY1010B prior
- APR Exports: +4.9% YoY vs. +8.9% prior
- To US: +10% YoY vs. +14% prior
- To EU: -2.4% YoY vs. -3.1% prior
- APR Imports: +0.3% YoY vs. +5.3% prior
- APR Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 vs. 53.1 prior (improved at a slower rate, though)
- APR Services PMI: 56.1 vs. 58 prior
Behind the scenes, APR also saw a slowdown in Chinese energy demand and an incremental deterioration of conditions within the country’s property market:
- APR Electricity Production: +1.5% YoY vs. +7.3% prior
- APR Processing of Crude Oil: -0.6% YoY vs. +1.9% prior
- APR Real Estate Climate Index: -7.3% YoY vs. -5.9% prior
As an aside, we flag these lesser-tracked data points because of their signaling power into the current Chinese growth model: 46.4% of GDP is Gross Fixed Capital Formation and Industrial Production accounts for 70% of all electricity use.
Moving along, it also appears that April’s Showers invited themselves into MAY, as the nation’s four largest banks are reported to have recorded only +CNY20B of Net New Lending MTD (per the Shanghai Securities News, citing unidentified sources). If this report is indeed accurate, it is an early (and extremely negative) read on the state of Chinese economic growth here in MAY, given the capital intensive nature of the Chinese economy.
Looking ahead, our models continue to point to a bottoming/inflection point in Chinese growth here in 2Q and the APR inflation data (CPI: +3.4% YoY vs. +3.6% prior; PPI: -0.7% YoY vs. -0.3% prior) lends credence to our long-held view that Deflating the Inflation alone would prompt the State Council, PBOC and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to continue “fine tuning” policy in support of growth. NOTE: we are not of the view that incremental easing is a function of slowing growth data; the latter has been purposefully engineered by Chinese policymakers starting as early as 1Q10 (recall our then-bearish Chinese Ox in a Box thesis).
China’s near world-beating currency strength has been supportive of domestic disinflation and that looks to continue despite what we see as TREND and potentially TAIL duration CNY weakness (commodities have higher beta on the downside) – a view that is increasingly being priced into forward-looking FX markets and in the yuan-sensitive Dim Sum bond market (yields breaking out as CNH deposit growth slows).
Most importantly, Chinese interest rate markets have dramatically accelerated their pricing in of easier domestic monetary policy over the past week (all spreads relative to the PBOC’s Benchmark 1yr Household Deposit Rate):
- 1yr Sovereign L/C Yield: -120bps vs. -70bps 1wk ago
- 1yr OIS: -70bps vs. -24bps 1wk ago
- 1yr PBOC Bill Yield: -78bps vs. -28bps 1wk ago
In short, while we don’t view a material acceleration in Chinese economic growth in 2H as a probable event absent a removal of the property market curbs, we do think further RRR reductions and actual interest rate cuts will start to filter through the economy and provide an eventual boost to Chinese economic growth.
Given that Chinese interest rate markets have put on a marked move towards the expectation of further/more aggressive monetary easing of late, it strikes us as odd that the equity values of China’s most capital intensive industries (Financials and Industrials) are not outperforming on a S/T basis. We do expect them to outperform in the aforementioned scenario, so we’ll continue to monitor this for signs of eventual follow-through or further hold-out.
Even rumors that the China Securities Regulatory Commission may grant foreign pension funds access to China’s capital markets wasn’t enough to boost Chinese stocks at large this week. It is our view that improving TREND-duration fundamentals will spell outperformance of Chinese equities over that duration. TAIL-duration questions remain; a potential property price collapse and a dramatic deterioration in systemic bank credit quality are two key structural issues we need to see resolved before we’d argue that the Chinese economy is in the clear from a L/T perspective.
All told, Chinese economic growth is slowing at a faster rate of late while market-based indicators of monetary easing speculation are accelerating, leaving the Chinese economy at a perfectly confusing fundamental juncture. We do, however, continue side with our research process – the net output of which points to a bottoming/inflection point in Chinese growth here in 2Q.
The Macau Metro Monitor, May 16, 2012
STUDIO CITY TO RECEIVE CASINO APPROVAL "SOON": REPORT Macau Business
According to Business Daily, MPEL will receive government permission for a casino at MSC “very soon.” The report quotes a source as saying that “the casino permission is just a formality and will happen very soon.”
ADDITIONAL BORDER CHECKPOINT TO BE BUILT Macau Daily News
Macau and Guangdong Province announced the construction of a new border crossing checkpoint connecting Zhuhai and Macau, to ease the burden of Gongbei border gate. The new border checkpoint, pending the approval of the central government, will be located on a land plot currently hosting the South Guangdong Wholesale Market on the Macau side.
Daily traffic of the checkpoint is expected to be around 200,000 arrivals, and together with the expansion of the current border crossing checkpoint, the checkpoints will be able to cater up to 700,000 visitors.
CHINA FOUR LARGEST BANKS ISSUE ALMOST ZERO NEW YUAN LOANS Shanghai Securities New
A source familiar with the matter tells the Shanghai Securities News that two of the four largest banks posted ~CNY10BN and "several billions" in new yuan loans respectively, but the remaining two banks posted negative growth in new yuan loans, leading to almost zero new yuan loans for the four banks through May 13th. The source also adds that the four banks' deposits have declined by ~CNY200BN as of May 13.
real edge in real-time
This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.
This note was originally published at 8am on May 02, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.
“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”
- H.L. Mencken
While they’re not the only ones in the business, the French are rightfully proud of their “stinky” cheeses. Yet stinky is for the consumer to judge and when it comes to pungent cheese, aroma and taste can run the spectrum from intense pleasure to pain, or alternatively as a pleasure from the pain.
A similar broad spectrum on the handling of the Eurozone’s sovereign debt and banking “crisis” is enjoyed by investors, strategists, journalists, and European citizens alike: abolish it, rescue it, or structure some hybrid of the two. So what’s the update on the region as we find ourselves in May with the stink currently in Spain?
We continue to throw the abolishment camp out the window on four main factors:
- Eurocrats will tote the line to save their job
- Fear of the contagion effect from the default of countries and banks on the rest of the continent
- Belief in the Union’s economic benefit (namely through open trade and travel)
- Belief in the formation of a European identity (including the continental strength to balance the closest geographic spheres of influence in the U.S. and Russia)
While we could argue until we’re blue in the face that Europe needs its own Lehman-like event, to let weaker countries default and/or exit the Union, and that one monetary policy for a collection of joined states growing at uneven rates will continue to compromise the Union because it handcuffs nations from manipulating currencies and interest rates to encourage competitiveness, we think the above factors will justify the maintenance of the existing Eurozone fabric over at least the next 12 months.
So the task is to play an incredibly-challenged environment ahead as Eurocrats try to find a balance between fiscal consolidation, while not obliterating future growth in the process. One key factor to monitor, which we’ll hit on later in the note, is the deterioration of Merkozy, or relations between Germany and France on Eurozone policy.
So what’s so wrong with Europe?
The existing rub in directing European policy to improve the fiscal health of countries is that European leadership is inherently compromised: on one hand they have to answer to their citizenry that is largely voting against fiscal consolidation (and rioting on the street to bout), yet on the other they must answer to the markets, and a larger Brussels “authority”. Given that the markets are pricing in slow growth across Europe in 2012 and such threats as the inability of governments to meets consolidation targets, sovereign yields should remain elevated, which in turn increases the cost to raise capital and sets the “non-virtuous” cycle of raising debt and deficits levels.
With 10YR yields trading at 20.4% in Greece; 10.5% in Portugal; 5.8% in Spain; and 5.6% in Italy; vs 1.6% in Germany, it comes with no great surprise that Germany is not interested in issuing Eurobonds.
But now the stakes in reducing risk have elevated, as Spain has taken the sovereign spotlight after a lengthy focus on Greece! (Note: Spain’s economy = 5x Greece’s.)
And while Eurocrats have set up a number of firewalls to ease investor concern that the Eurozone is going away—including funding programs such as the EFSF, ESM, and enhanced commitments to the IMF earmarked for Europe, to liquidity programs such as the two 36M- LTROs and the SMP—these programs do little to bind Europe under a growth strategy. As of recent weeks, it’s growth that has been given more attention by Eurocrats.
More Conflicts Ahead
But how do you manufacture growth? Simply by setting up more funding through the European Investment Bank or earmarking more lending from the IMF? But who’s paying for it? Importantly, Germany hasn’t put up her hand, and who’s left?
Again, the uneven and compromised nature of Europe (and the Eurozone specifically) cannot be overlooked. Simply throwing money at “problems” won’t cure structural drags like high unemployment rates, low labor productivity, vulnerable banks, and further risks from declines in housing and property prices ahead.
To highlight a few imbalances: Spain’s unemployment rate is 24.4% vs Germany’s at 6.8%, or Spain has a monster deficit reduction target of 5.3% (of GDP) for 2012 versus 8.5% last year vs the German deficit forecast to fall to 0.6%. Or consider Portugal’s average annual growth rate over the last 10 years of 0.03% vs 1.07% for Germany, or recall that we forecast house and property prices could fall another 30% from here in Spain!
It’s such structural mismatches (to name a few) that suggest that even if Europe finds a united path, it won’t come next week, next month, or next year. Uncompetitive countries like a Portugal or a Greece are going to stay uncompetitive. Europe’s stronger nations will simply have to decide how long they want to subsidize them. Is this a realistic long-term strategy? We think not, but we still must play the likelihood that Eurocrats fight to support the whole.
Of note is that in some cases expectation are just grossly misaligned. For example, the European Commission targeted all member nations to have deficits at or below 3% by 2013. That’s surely not realistic for Portugal, Ireland, Spain, or Greece! Further, the Fiscal Compact, which is really an amended version of the Stability and Growth Pact (aimed at deficit reduction to 3% and debt reduction to 60%), stands to fall short as Brussels wrongly assumes members will give up their fiscal sovereignty.
Returning to stinky cheese, the likely victory of the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande in this Sunday’s presidential elections spells the likely end of a strong working relationship between France’s Sarkozy and Germany’s Merkel. Hollande’s very socialist agenda (increase spending by €20 MM over five years, reduce the retirement age from 62 to 60, raise income tax on earners over €1 MM to 75%, capping gasoline prices for a number of months and a pledge to block corporate job cuts) along with such positions as pro Eurobonds (which Germany vehemently opposes) and opposition to the Fiscal Compact, portend great disunity at a time when the Eurozone needs its two largest economies to pull jointly on the loose strings and direct solutions to its sovereign and banking ills.
Returning to H.L. Mencken’s quote that started the note, it’s clear Europe has a very complex suite of problems. And if expectations are the root of all heartache, it’s the market’s expectation that Europe will be “fixed” tomorrow that needs amendment. While there is no simple solution, without better coordination through both appropriate targets for fiscal consolidation alongside strategies for growth, we do not see any hope for material improvement across the region over the next 12 months.
The immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index, and the SP500 are now $1630-1656, $119.07-121.06, $78.55-79.32, and 1391-1415, respectively.
“Most people have the will to win, few have the will to prepare to win.”
We don’t have to apologize, fear-monger, or point fingers while everyone is reacting to the news again this morning. This has been going on for 5 years. Get both the Slope of Global Growth (slowing) and the direction of the US Dollar right, and you’ll get a lot of other things right.
Winning in this country (or being right in this business) should be celebrated instead of shunned. It’s not easy out there – and it’s not going to get any easier any time soon. Life is hard.
Repeatable risk management processes trump pundits. Either our profession’s broken sources go away, or whatever is left of the trust, inflows, and volumes in our markets will.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
From a Global Macro perspective (currencies, countries, commodities, etc.) I am finally seeing the early signs of capitulation (immediate-term TRADE oversold) on the downside as the US Dollar approaches immediate-term TRADE overbought.
That’s what happens when The Correlation Risk goes “on.” Policy (or in this case the lack thereof in expectations of an iQe4 upgrade) drives the US Dollar; and the US Dollar drives mostly everything else (USD up for the 11th consecutive day today).
Correlation Risk has a reflexive impact on demand (markets that go straight down scare people), but it is not traditional demand in terms of how we measure it – it’s behavioral. Our Leading Indicators on Global Demand (Growth) have been slowing since February-March.
Commodities and Asian Equities stopped going up in February; most other major Global Equity markets stopped going up throughout March; and US Treasury bond yields stopped going up in March as well.
In other words, if you have a Globally Interconnected Risk Management Process (or just a Twitter feed with credible sources), why people are freaking out right now (instead of when they should have), should at least give you a chuckle.
People freak-out (buy high, sell low) because we have institutionalized asset management into a very short-term game of performance chasing. Sadly, gaming the game of the next policy move is paramount on people’s minds – and the intermediate-term draw-downs (from peak-to-trough) for the last 5 years have been epic.
Here’s how the draw-downs (losses of your capital from the YTD tops) look in some of the majors:
- Japanese stocks (Nikkei) = down -14.2%
- Hong Kong stocks (Hang Seng) = down -11.2%
- Indian stocks (Sensex) = down -13.0%
- German stocks (DAX) = down -11.3%
- Spanish stocks (IBEX) = down -25.1% (crashing)
- Russian stocks (RTSI) = down -22.3% (crashing)
- CRB Commodities Index = down -11.3%
- Gold = down -14.2%
- Oil = down -11.8%
- Treasury Yields (US 10yr) = down -24.8%
Right, right. And all of this, including JPM’s news is all about Greece, right?
C’mon. Let’s get real here before whatever is left of the world’s investors yank all their capital from our fee based businesses. Ben Bernanke may very well have dared you to chase yield on January 25th, but that doesn’t mean you should have taken on the dare. You have seen this Qe expectations game before. You should have sold into it.
US Equities, which I didn’t list in the top 10 draw-downs, have done a complete round trip from where we were banging the risk management drums here in New Haven. While the Russell2000’s draw-down is about the same as the Hang Sang’s (-8.2%), the SP500’s is just -6.3%. So, if you bought the April 2ndtop, you only have to be up about 7% (from here) to get back to break-even.
Break-even? Yes. That matters. And so does timing – that’s why we are so focused on both.
Check out the timing of this trifecta:
- Russell 2000 peaks on March 26that 846
- US Equity Volatility (VIX) bottoms on March 26that 14.26
- Obama’s probability of winning the US Election peaks on – yep, March 26th
Political pundits probably don’t read this Newsletter. But if they did, they’d think that last point can’t be true. After all, it doesn’t come from Washington or the accepted wisdoms of partisan paralysis.
We call it objective analysis. That’s all the Hedgeye Election Indicator is, math.
So, as US Equity markets draw-down from their March/April peaks (as they have from Q1 to Q3 in every year of the last 5 other than in 2009 when we were the most bullish firm on Wall Street 2.0), that’s obviously going to be a headwind for Obama.
It’s also going to be a headwind for Ben Bernanke.
Don’t forget that any headwind for Obama is, on the margin, a tailwind for Romney. Anything compression in the spread between Obama versus Romney (Obama had a huge lead in March), puts Bernanke’s career risk in play.
That, dear friends of the risk management gridiron, is US Dollar bullish.
And, with the US Dollar Index breaking out across all 3 of our core risk management durations (TRADE, TREND, and TAIL), you want to continue to be Proactively Prepared for what may very well be the most epic economic debate of our generation.
My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and the SP500 are now $1, $110.27-112.99, $80.04-81.22, $1.27-1.29, 1, respectively.
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.38%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.41%