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Early Look

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RESTAURANT SENTIMENT SCORECARD

Short interest data released yesterday, in conjunction with sell-side sentiment data, shows that for the two weeks ended 3/15 the majority of restaurant stocks have seen sentiment either improve or hold steady.  BJRI saw the greatest uptick in sentiment while DPZ, BWLD, and KKD saw the greatest declines in sentiment.

 

Sentiment Scorecard Callouts

 

MCD/YUM/SBUX: The gap that previously existed between MCD versus YUM and SBUX has closed from a sentiment perspective.  Disappointing February sales results, along with the impact of austerity on MCD’s Europe business, has brought sentiment lower recently.  We believe that Taco Bell is a key driver of improving sentiment around YUM’s stock.  Despite softness in China’s stock market during March amid growth concerns, a factor that would usually be expected to weigh on the company’s stock price, YUM’s stock has gone straight up during the past month.  SBUX continues to win in new categories and investors are heightening their expectations for what SBUX can achieve within the food and beverage industries.

 

DNKN: Sentiment in Dunkin’ softened in the two weeks ending 3/15.  Subsequently, we learned from a regulatory filing that 1Q trends at Dunkin’ Donuts softened sequentially from 4Q despite the weather benefit.  While we do not think that same-store sales trends are important for DNKN, given that it is a franchise business, it is important from a sentiment perspective and we expect the next sentiment reading to show a further decline in DNKN’s reading.  The backlog of new unit openings, a metric of paramount importance for investors in Dunkin’s growth story, continues to be shrouded in mystery.

 

BWLD: Buffalo Wild Wings’ stock continues to soar, with the exception of a minor correction today on the back of what we see as a very prescient downgrade from Deutsche Bank today.  The sell-side is becoming more bearish on it, and sell-side sentiment has been the primary driver of the reduction in the sentiment around the name over the past two months.

 

EAT: Investors remain skeptical on this turnaround story.  In terms of the upcoming EPS release, the question is whether or not the company was able to successfully lap the introduction of the $6.95 lunch combo in January 2011.

 

PFCB: P.F. Chang’s still languishes near the bottom of the list from an investor sentiment perspective but sentiment has been improving slightly recently.  Investors will be eager to learn how the Bistro’s “Triple Dragon” promotion has fared recently either during the AGM on 4/18 or during the 1Q12 EPS call on 4/27.

 

RESTAURANT SENTIMENT SCORECARD - sentiment score card

 

RESTAURANT SENTIMENT SCORECARD - short interest

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


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