Conclusion: The combination of today’s employment report and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index spell incremental trouble for the U.S. economy. We have conviction that growth will continue to slow based largely on a jobless and deleveraging consumer, downward pressure on housing prices, and a burgeoning federal debt burden.
Position: Short the S&P 500 (SPY).
This morning’s employment report was well received by the market (up around 1% today). This is largely due to the fact that private payrolls “beat” consensus estimates, climbing 67k vs. 40k (Bloomberg Consensus).
Akin to a bad company beating low earnings expectations, this morning’s employment report does not pass the test of analytical rigor. Diving deeper into the “model” we see that private payrolls growth (while up 67k MoM) slowed sequentially. In MACRO, everything that matters happens on the margin, and, on the margin, this is sequential deterioration.
Analyzing the industry-specific reports, we see that employment at service providers fell 54k MoM. While a sequential improvement, it is important to note that today’s ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index came in at 48.2 for the month of August, offering no near-term signs of reprieve in this sector. Employment in the retail industry fell by 4,900 bodies and employment in the construction sector grew 19k MoM. We hope (understanding full well that hope isn’t and investment process) that this addition of labor isn’t busy adding more supply to a housing market that is very much in disequilibrium from a supply/demand standpoint. Research from Josh Steiner, our Managing Director of Financials, suggests we are due for a ~20% correction in housing prices over the next 12 months based on current inventory levels – absent major government intervention.
The deltas in federal government employment continue to be distorted by the unwinding of Census hiring, so we’ll just leave the (-121k) MoM decline alone. We will, however, point out that State & local governments continue to shed jobs (down 10k MoM) and the austerity measures currently being undertaken across the country will weigh on GDP growth going forward. YTD, State & local governments have shed 135,000 jobs and without meaningful intervention by the federal government (or a pickup in tax revenues, which we feel is unlikely based on where we think GDP is headed), this trend will continue because of their budget balancing mandate.
Today’s unemployment report is similar to the trend we saw in the 2Q earnings season whereby companies beat on earnings but missing on the top line. The positive market reaction to the private payrolls “beat” is overshadowing the sequential uptick in the unemployment rate (9.6% vs. 9.5% in July), which is a miss in our eyes – regardless of consensus expectations. The end result is simply that less people that want jobs have them. Underemployment, which measures part-time workers who’d prefer full-time employment and people who want to work but have given up looking, also worsened sequentially (16.7% vs. 16.5% in July). Needless to say, the employment situation in America is not conducive for a pickup in growth, given that ~70% of our economy is consumer spending.
The last chart we want to highlight comes from another survey; the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for August “missed” estimates, falling off the table sequentially (51.5 vs. 54.3 in July vs. consensus expectations of 53.2). The survey, which covers about 90% of the economy, is now 150bps away from signaling a contraction. The three components of the index we watch all declined sequentially: New Orders dropped to 52.4 from 56.7; Backlog of Orders dropped to 50.5 from 52; and Employment dropped into contraction at 48.2 vs. 50.9 in July.
All told, the combination of today’s employment report and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index spell incremental trouble for the U.S. economy. We have conviction that growth will continue to slow based largely on a jobless and deleveraging consumer, downward pressure on housing prices, and a burgeoning federal debt burden. On July 1st as part of our American Austerity theme, we published our initial estimate for 3Q GDP, which was 1.7%. That will be revised lower in the coming weeks.
We remain short the S&P 500 via the etf SPY with an immediate term TRADE downside target of 1061.
Enjoy the long weekend with your family and friends.
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.28%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
Once per year, the BLS benchmarks its payroll estimates against state unemployment insurance filings, which last year saw a significant drop in the previously-reported payroll employment levels.
In the benchmark revision for the year beginning March 2009 (printed in 2010), the net effect of the BLS revision was an upward adjustment to the number of jobs losses during the recession of 900,000 jobs. When the BLS first announced the massive 2009 benchmark revision, in effect the statement indicated that the underlying assumptions to the Birth-Death Model were missing certain jobs losses and it is not a reliable indicator. The BLS’s model assumes that jobs created by start-up companies have more than offset jobs lost by companies going out of business. So for the BLS this becomes their equivalent of a fudge factor; the ability to make the employment situation appear better than it really is. We will be following up with a more in depth analysis of this effect early next week.
So far this year, the model has created an average of 53,000 jobs per month, including 115,000 jobs this month. In this economy, it is interesting that the bias has been positive and not negative! While there is no shortage of misinformation being broadcast through the media, the government seems to be a fully engaged participant.
With the September payroll numbers, the BLS is scheduled to publish its initial estimate of the benchmark revision for March 2010; once again we are likely to learn that the BLS got it wrong again and hundreds of thousands of people lost their jobs that we did not know about.
Knowing how flawed the Birth/Death model is flawed, backing out the 115,000 of addition jobs this month, the non-farm payroll number would be closer to -169,000; worse than consensus and acceleration from last month's loss of -131,000.
We just bought the TLT exchange-traded fund. If the hope that unemployment is meaningfully improving and housing is stabilizing, we’ll be a buyer of the long end of the bond market on associated weakness.
Housing is not improving and unemployment situation is not either.
Wynn Encore Macau has been open over four months. While still preliminary, we took a look at the incremental revenues and EBITDA from the new property.
How is Encore doing? Based on the first four months of data – admittedly preliminary – we’d definitively say that Encore is doing, well, okay. We look at the Encore contribution in two ways: 1) by calculating the incremental market share gain and deriving an estimate of EBITDA and 2) calculating the incremental EBITDA from Q1 (pre-Encore) to Q2 (post-Encore) and adjusting for the hold differential.
In Q2, Wynn generated $216m in EBITDA versus $181m in Q1. After adjusting for the fact that Encore was only open for 72 days in the quarter and hold percentage was significantly higher in Q2 and Q1, we calculate the annualized incremental EBITDA from Encore was $83 million. Encore cost $600 million to build so the ROI per this method was a respectable 14%.
The second methodology yields a lower ROI of 11%. Given the market growth from Q1 to Q2, we decided to look at the Wynn Macau VIP market share following the opening of MPEL’s City of Dreams on June 1, 2009 but before the April 21st opening of Encore (June 2009 through March 2010 period) and compare it to the May-August period (post Encore). We are focusing on VIP because Encore did not add any Mass tables. In fact, according to the numbers, Encore added nothing to Wynn’s Mass share. The 2.2% increase in market share would generate approximately $64 million in annualized incremental EBITDA per our math. See the chart below.
So the jury is still out on Encore. However, Wynn’s post Q2 market share has been substandard and trending lower. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Conclusion: European PMI Services fell or substantially slowed in August, which is line with our forecast for a negative inflection in the August data from Europe. We continue to expect a decline in consumption across Europe post the exuberance of the World Cup and in response to the enactment of austerity measures that should induce individual belt-tightening and hamper confidence. The British Pound is one European currency that’s taken a notable dive alongside headline data, down -3.4% over the last month.
Of the countries reporting, here are the PMI Services numbers in August versus July:
- UK: 51.3 versus 53.1
- France: 60.4 versus 61.1
- Russia: 47.0 versus 54.2
- Spain: 49.2 versus 51.3
- Ireland: 52.9 versus 55.7
- Germany: 57.2 versus 56.5
- Italy: 51.4 versus 49.6
- Eurozone: 55.9 versus 55.8
The German, French, and British economies are anchoring points in our analysis. The negative move in August PMI (German PMI Manufacturing released on Wednesday was unchanged in August, while the UK fell to 54.3 from 56.9) bodes poorly for the region, especially due to the fact that Germany, France and the UK are often the largest trading partners with other EU member states.
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