DPZ’s comments were in line with what we heard from the company last week when it reported 4Q09 results. The company maintained its optimistic tone and reiterated that current sales are up significantly following the late 4Q09 launch of its “new and inspired” pizza. Relative to DPZ’s competitors, management made two interesting comments. First, DPZ said that the pizza category is now growing and is up 5%, but the company does not know yet how much of the growth is driven by DPZ versus its competitors. DPZ’s “significant” pickup in quarter to date sales trends most likely does not bode well for Pizza Hut from a market share perspective.
Second, DPZ stated that it will be interested to see if it is stealing share from the frozen pizza category. Management said that although the frozen pizza category is seeing growth in its average ticket, it is not experiencing growth in the number of people buying frozen pizza. With DPZ now selling pizza at lower price points than some of its frozen pizza competitors, it could take share. This is a potential negative for CPKI.
Notes from the presentation:
Pizza - Great category rooted in family tradition:
- 1 trillion in food industry
- 33 billion is pizza
- Delivery and carry out
- 45% of sales are international
- In over 60 countries
Average check for party of four eating QSR pizza is $22.54 vs. $49.94 at FSR
“New and Inspired” Pizza product
- Months of consumer trials have gone on
- Very pleased with the launch of this product
- Sales are up significantly but we have not quantified that as yet
#1 delivery company
- Small chains and independents make up 55% of market share
- DPZ 18%
- Other 2 national competitors make up 27%
- Great growth opportunity
- 20% of sales comes from online ordering
- Technology is a very important part of the delivery business’ future
- Margins grew last year largely due to commodities and new efficiencies
- Domestic stores
- 4,461 Franchised stores
- 466 domestic stores
- Domestic Supply chain (partnership with franchisees – 50%of profits)
- 17 dough manufacturing facilities
- One equipment and supply facility
- 4,072 Franchised stores
- No Company-owned stores
- 6 dough manufacturing and supply chain facilities
- Strong business partners with long term partnerships and high collection rate
- Owner-operators with no outside business interests
- No significant concentrations
- 1,200 franchisees owning 3 or 4 stores on average
- Low cost to open/operate – 150-200k for new store
- Cash on cash returns in 30-40% range
- Cheese is the most significant aspect
- Cheese prices anticipated to be in 1.50-1.70 range, as per earnings call, but prices going down (only 1.27 yesterday)
- Rolling over low prices from 2009 but hopefully, we will be surprised
International profits are driven by franchise royalties
- 91% of 2009 international operating income
- International represented 34% of total DPZ operating income in ‘09
- Significant international growth in 2009
- Global Retail Sales CAGR of 12% from 2004 to 2009
- $1.5 billion of debt
- 6% blended cash interest rate
- Interest only with 2 one-year extensions on top of 5 years -through April 2014
- 6-7x leveraged now. Intend to be in the 3-4x range by refinancing time.
Positive EPS trends
- In 4Q09 delivered 35 cents (30 cents normalized for extra week) vs. consensus of 25 cents
Long range outlook:
- Domestic SSS: +1% to +3%
- Int’l SSS: +3% to +5%
- New Units: 200 to 500 globally
- Global Retail Sales: +4% to +6%
- Normalized Annual Cap-Ex: $20 to $30 million
- Tax rate: Approximately 39%
Use of cash
- Capex is being used to deleverage
- Pay significant dividends
- Repurchase shares
Important points from Q&A:
Q: Promotional environment? Franchisee financing? Small franchisees?
A: Promotional market is competitive between PZZA and DPZ. 80% of all pizza sold is on deals. The consumer has always been looking for deals when they decide where to get pizza.
Small franchisees have not been as forthcoming, still tight. Well capitalized franchisees still coming forward.
Q: 80% of menu is new…what’s next? Additional product?
A: Continuing to offer promotions but want to make sure that people try the new pizza product we just rolled out.
Q: Domestic franchise growth and why it has grown over past 5 years?
A: DPZ has 1,000 stores we could open domestically…not saturated market. Harder to find growth opportunities than before. We know growth is there. Once the credit market opens up that will help. Franchisees were hurt badly in ’08 by commodities and prices had come down in ’09. So we need to make sure unit economics are right and we can attract the right franchisees.
Q: PZZA said that the pizza market had gone from 5% decline to 5% growth. Where is the share coming from?
A: Pleased to see pizza category up, we get the same data. We don’t know how much of the 5% of growth is ours vs our competitors.
Q: Growth in online business. Logistically, what are the pluses and minuses of the online stuff?
A: Now 20% of sales, and expect it to continue to grow. Corporate stores are leading the way with this with higher ROI.
Gets a menu in front of the customer. Tracking mechanism. Good website. Less labor involved. Very efficient.
Q: Frozen pizza competition?
A: Frozen is growing but most recent data shows that the ticket is growing but the number of people that is buying the pizza is not…I’ll be interested to see if we are taking share from the frozen pizza companies because some of our pizzas are priced lower than some frozen pizzas options.
Q: Shift in TV advertising. Is this the highest level? What is driving it?
A: In 2008 we moved money to coops from national advertising and that was a mistake. Went back to franchisees and they agreed on 5% for 2009 for national advertising.
Now rolling up to 5.5% (with unanimous support from franchisees)
Q: What kind of pathway do you think we can expect from new pizza? What date will you give us data on? When will business tend to trend down?
A: It can taper off within days or it can taper off within a few weeks…end of December was very strong when the “new and inspired” pizza product was launched. Promotions typically taper off, but this is not a promotion. We have completely revamped our core product and we have no history with revamping a core product to measure current performance and if can be sustained. Reported trends will come with 1Q earnings on May 4th.
A flat market can make any real-time risk manager fidgety because, in the end, a market won’t perpetually stay flat.
The week-to-date, and ever since we shorted the SP500 on Friday at the 1139 for that matter, has been virtually flat. Yes, we have had fits and starts of intraday strength and weakness; and, yes, the bullish side of this market continues to deserve the bullish benefit of the doubt; but on a closing price basis, it’s been basically flat. I do not expect this to continue beyond this 3-day period.
In the chart below I have outlined both levels that I think can be attained. While there is more immediate term downside here than there is upside, in the face of another horrendous consumer confidence report this morning (ABC/Washington Post report came in at down -49 versus -49 last week, despite the SP500 being up +3.1% last week) and President Obama’s approval rating hitting a new low this morning (The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 22% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -21. That matches the lowest Approval Index rating yet recorded for this President), the SP500’s pain trade remains UP (1154).
In terms of down side support, the bullish intermediate term TREND line of support is now at a higher-low of 1108 (or a -4% correction level from 1154 if this market is actually able to make up its mind and close at that higher-high).
My immediate term strategy is to not try to be a hero on the short side, but wait and watch. If I see 1154, I’ll likely short more SPY up there. If I don’t, well that will make us right on our current short position and… I guess I’ll be less fidgety.
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What Are You Reading?
While we tend to incorporate a fair number of athletic references in our research notes, the Hedgeye Risk Management team is also a bit on the nerdy side and we quite enjoy reading. In fact, our CEO actually reads a book every ten days. (If he speeds it up a little, he may catch me some day!)
For your enjoyment and interest, below we’ve listed some of our current favorite book recommendations. These selections are from all members of our team, from research to technology, and all parts in between. Each team member also wrote a brief note as to why they enjoyed the book and why they believe it is important to read.
We hope you will enjoy the list. And please do forward us your recommendations.
Daryl G. Jones
1. “A Whole New Mind” - by Dan Pink
The book argues that the future of global business belongs to the right-brainers; it’s counter to what most companies accept as the “standard”.
2. “Extreme Programming Explained” – by Kent Beck
Brilliantly short approach to software development that addresses technical, managerial, and people issues. Technical brilliance aside takes in to effect people at all parts of the process, as opposed the plug and play replaceable parts that most processes account for, better than the kinder, gentler 2nd edition in that his response is more extreme, and thus harder to maintain.
3. “Three Cups of Tea” – by Greg Mortensen
Really interesting glimpse into what's going on in remote parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Book is uplifting and inspiring in what an organization is trying to do for education there.
4. “The Moral Animal: Evolutionary Psychology and Everyday Life” – by Robert Wright
What’s not to love about a book that provides a scientific justification for cheating? On a serious note, this is fascinating book that provides the genetic background to much of our instinctive behaviors. Rooted in early Darwinian research, the book posits, and maybe rightly so, that perhaps we humans are nothing more than moral animals.
5. “The Education of a Speculator” – by Victor Niederhoffer
This is one of the few accounts from a global macro risk manager that actually tells you what it is that we men and women of the early morning macro shift actually do. Niederhoffer checks all of the boxes that resume chasers want to see (Harvard B.A. in stats/economics; Ph.d. from University of Chicago). At the same time he was a world class athlete (champion squash player) and someone the "he's smart" crowd can't deny (worked for Soros, managing all of fixed income and FX from 1). He's also blown up, which helps show what real experienced risk managers need to have learned firsthand. He's a renaissance man.
6. “The Next Asia” – by Stephen Roach
Roach is Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and a keen analyst of the world’s economic situation. The book is a collection of columns, small essays, postings, research notes etc going back to 2007, when this all started breaking out, and Roach clearly explains the underlying mechanisms of the financial crisis. The book was a disappointment to its publisher because the press didn’t get enthusiastic about something that was “just a collection of old columns.” Consequently, the book did not sell really well, which is too bad. It is a crystal clear analysis of a highly complex situation, presented in plain English and full of insights that should shape our view of what is going on in the world today. The pieces are short – usually no more than 3 pages – so they make convenient reading. It’s a great history book for the intelligent non-professional who wants to understand how this whole mess happened. And it’s a useful antidote to the professionals’ propensity to solipsism.
7. “Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders” – by Jack Schwager
Crux: I've always thought the best way to learn anything is to learn from those who know it best. Who better to learn investing from than some of the most successful traders in history. This book is a compendium of interviews with legendary traders and investors. What I like best about the book is that the common denominator of the interviewees has nothing to do with their approach to trading or investing - they have wildly different durations and use different instruments and have completely different approaches. What they seem to share in common, however, is a very strong sense of risk management and a core set of investing or trading principles that they stick to throughout their career. This proves that there is no one right or wrong way to be successful at investing. Rather, you need to have a process that is consistent with your beliefs and a risk management approach that keeps losses to a minimum.
8. “Manchild in the Promised Land” – by Claude Brown
It’s very compelling story about a ghetto kid growing up in Harlem in the 50’s and making his way to college though a childhood of crime.
9. “The Places In Between” – by Rory Stewart
In 2002, immediately after the fall of the Taliban, Stewart set out to cross Afghanistan on foot. The book can take its place on the shelf alongside the best of his British Adventurer forebears – TE Lawrence and Wilfred Theisiger (Lawrence: Seven Pillars of Wisdom, Thesiger: Arabian Sands. These are must-read books if you want to know about the world we live in today. Thesiger was the first European to document a crossing of the Empty Quarter – the Arabian desert – and he tells his tale quite well. Lawrence is a brilliant stylist, possibly very heavily coached by GB Shaw, whom he credits with helping out with the MS.) Unlike the news reports of the Afghan war, this is personal experience of the places and people of Afghanistan, coupled with striking insights into the history of the place, and of human nature in general. It puts the Afghan war – and with it, our perceptions of humanity – in a whole new context. As with the writings of Thesiger and Lawrence, once you read this book you will never look at this part of the world the same way again.
10. "A Short History of Nearly Everything" – by Bill Bryson
This ranks as the greatest book ever written. Over the course of 500 pages, Bryson explains in funny and laymen's terms what amounts to the entire scientific knowledge our species has acquired and how it came to acquire it. Required reading for any enlightened individual.
11. “Fooled by Randomness” – by Nassim Taleb
It gives a great insight into misconceptions in business, investing, and life caused by people not recognizing randomness and the role it plays in those spheres. At present, with politicians piling debt upon debt, a trick that has been tried before, Taleb's passage on man's tendency to "denigrate history" (not learn from others' experiences) is particularly telling.
12. “About Grace” – by Anthony Doerr
Themes of long cycle natural phenomenon alongside a personal story of loss and renewal.
13. “You Are Not A Gadget: A Manifesto” – by Jason Lanier
Provides a less optimistic view point of new media.
14. “The Pragmatic Programmer: From Journeyman to Master ” - by Andrew Hunt and David Thomas.
This book speaks to me about what software development is all about: all the categories of skills and tools needed.
15. “Guns, Germs and Steel” – by Jared Diamond
It is seldom that I find a book that starts from a simple premise and profoundly shifts my world views, and the record of how relative events across the world occurred in the same timeframe. Although China was not well covered in his analysis, and can challenge some of the main points, the breadth of the work makes it stand in my opinion as one of the best recent books I have read.
16. “The Great Gatsby” – by F. Scott Fitzgerald
The range of human spirit. However flawed; it’s colorful. Glass houses being so alluring yet so fragile. How prestige is a mirage and the people who hide behind society are sometimes the weakest characters. The struggle to survive and succeed more interesting than the success in and of itself. The curse of being a human being. “Wanting” can destroy.
17. "Quasars, Redshifts, and Controversies" – by Halton Arp
In essence, astronomer Halton Arp identifies many irregular galaxies and forms a theory about their properties, but this theory accumulates more and more evidence against it. Blindsided by selection effect, he battens down the hatches and concludes that the problem is with the scientific establishment, not with his research. This is true for a handful of scientists/schools every hundred years - Copernicus, Galileo, Einstein, etc. - and the rest of the time the proponents are quacks. Arp propels himself into the latter category, despite a hugely successful early career.
18. “Atlas Shrugged” – by Ayn Rand
The lessons of Atlas Shrugged are timeless. Through a captivating fictional story, the destructive impact of government is exposed. The book is more relevant now than when it was written in the 1950s.
19. “Cod” - by Mark Kurlansky
Cod is a story of exploration and ambition around a topic near and dear to me: food. Cod takes us on the multi-century journey of the dance between two species: man and cod. From 14th century Basque fisherman crossing the Atlantic in open boats to chase a prized commodity, to evolving markets and tastes over time, and through the complex interplay of global forces even today. A thoughtful, data-driven, and well-written case study on a dying industry, with crisp lessons on human nature, resource depletion and the market’s unstoppable force.
20. "Salt" – by Mark Kurlansky
Reminds us that in a world so complex, when you look back at why or how we get to where we are today...the answer can be so simple.
21. "State of Fear"- by Micahel Crichton
For the prologue alone, I believe that Michael Crichton reveals the depths to which group think can betray society.
22. “Lone Survivor” – by Marcus Lutrell
Amazing story of pride, promise, and unbreakable will that provides invaluable perspective to any challenge.
23. “The Alchemist” – by Paulo Coelho
Story of a young Spanish boy on a mission to fulfill his Personal Legend (Destiny) and find his Treasure (Fulfillment). The book depicts the transformation of innocent and pure youthful dreaming into an optimistic reality of achievement. The boy is led by the signs of the universe and the guidance of great kings and alchemists with some obstacles along the way but finds that in the end of his epic journey that the fulfillment of his dream was the journey itself.
24. “The Accidental Billionaire” – by Ben Mezrich
The story of two socially awkward Ivy leaguers, trying to increase their chances with the opposite sex, ended up creating FACEBOOK. Harvard boys with a mathematic background and less-than-smooth approach with the female population. They just wanted to meet some girls.
25. “Hatchet” – by Gary Paulsen
Hatchet is the story of a boy named Brian. On a trip to the Canadian oilfields to spend the summer with his dad, the pilot of the Cessna he is traveling in suffers a heart attack and dies. Brian must land the plane in the forest. Brian learns to exist in this wilderness. He faces many dangers including hunger, animal attacks, and even a tornado. This book gives the reader a better understanding of what it is like to survive in an untamed land.
Gaming revs on the Strip fell 3%, better than our estimate of a 6% drop, owing to higher slot hold percentage. With CityCenter open and -15% comp, the Strip should be doing better.
Aside from a little higher than expected slot hold, there is not a lot unusual about the January Strip gaming revenues. Due to the timing of Chinese New Year, Baccarat volume actually fell 6% y-o-y but a higher hold percentage drove Baccarat revenues up 13%. Overall table hold percentage was normal at 11.8%.
January of 2009 was a horrible month with total gaming revenues down 15%. The January 2010 2-year comp was down 17%. The good news, at least for appearances, is that February faces the easiest comp of the year. February 2009 Strip revenues fell 23%.
PSS: Enjoy The Selloff, Prepare to Act
Nice beat, though comp was weak for all the right reasons. This story is on track…period.
As we expected, PSS beat the quarter. We highlighted in our note yesterday the assumptions behind our ($0.10) estimate, and how a loss starting with a 2-handle (the Street was at a loss of $0.26) was not in the cards even if we flexed on some key assumptions. With a print of ($0.18), there was little that came from the event that we found surprising.
In fact, the company’s gross margins and SG&A were in line with our model. The entire deviation was on the comp line, which came in well below our estimate. The bottom line there is that the 3Q Oprah promotion pulled forward more inventory than we modeled. So margins were huge in 4Q, but the company simply did not have enough ‘stuff’ to sell.
So let’s step back for a minute. The crux of why we like PSS is that a) the company increasingly owns both content and distribution, b) some big competition (WMT) is de-emplasizing the footwear business, c) PSS has made structural changes in its model that increases speed to market, d) it finally has the systems in place to be in touch with the right consumers – and market the right product to them in the right channels, e) can, and will, both drive higher AURs on top of increased traffic. Ultimately, the consensus estimates are too low – as proved this quarter.
When I look at this quarter, I poke and prod to see what parts of this thesis were proved wrong. Really, there’s nothing. The company nailed the product, but did not have enough. That’s their biggest miss. I’m ok with that, as it has no bearing in next years’ earnings. I’d be concerned if comps were high but gross margins took a nosedive because PSS missed trends and had too much inventory. That absolutely did not happen.
Will there be more bumps and scrapes along the way here? Of course there will be. But I still think that the Street’s estimates are likely to come out 20% too low for next year. At the same time, having just passed an important yy hurdle, momentum on both the top line and operating margin is strong for the next few quarters. Any meaningful sell-off here is a great opportunity to step back in on one of the few solid stories in retail.
REVIEW OF THE QUARTER
Reported EPS: -$0.18
Clean EPS: -$0.19
- Revenue: +3.3%
- Comps: +0.7%
- PLG: -13.6% (-18.3% wholesale, +1.8% retail)
- Expiration of the Tommy Hilfiger adultwear license
- Gross Margin: +467 bps
- Improvement due to double-digit percentage reduction in product costs from commodity prices and leveraging size and scale of global supply chain. Lower markdowns due to clean and light inventory position, higher sales which leveraged fixed costs such as occupancy, and lower freight and distribution costs related to the new distribution centers being fully operational along with the closure of the Topeka distribution center in Q2 09.
- SG&A: +3.7%, +13 bps
- Higher incentive compensation and PLG investments was nearly offset by payroll and other spending.
- EBIT: +454 bps
- Inventories: -10%
- Cap Ex: $84 (down $45 due to completed spending in previous year)
- Cash: increase in cash was driven by lower working capital and higher earnings from stronger operating performance.
- Debt: Net debt at the end of 2009 was $456 mm lower by 208 mm. Repaid an incremental $40 mm of long-term debt during 4Q. Paid down $22 mm on 8.25 senior sub board
- Tax: 20%, higher than 2009
- D&A: $140
- Cap Ex: $100 (increase of $16 mm, over half spending from stores and incremental IT projects)
- Inventory: will be higher driven by sales growth
- 2010 Stores: -15 net [-60 stores domestic, +25 stores international (Columbia additions), +20 stores in PLG (Stride Rite additions and Sperry retail concept)]
- Working Cap: 2010 networking capital is expected to be a use of cash due primarily to increases in inventory and accounts receivable as a result of sales growth
- SG&A: goal is to lower operating costs, but
- GM/Occupancy: 1/5 of stores come up for renewal in 2010
- Product Costs: Costs will be down mid single digits in 1H, which is less than Q4. There maybe costs that could turnaround from a positive to a negative in 2H but don’t have much insight on this yet.
- PLG Retail: some prices were too low, PLG retail expansion and turnaround is taking longer than expected due to not changing the management fast enough, but now that it’s in place strategy in motion.
- Boots: underplayed boots in 4Q and by the time it came to replenish, it was too late in the game to safely replenish. Ran out of boots in Q4 which hurt total sales. Boots will not be a play in Q1 or Q2 at PSS.
- CRM: Effects of CRM worth the investment and continue to invest.
- Economy: unemployment is still 1/10 in the US so this economic situation is not over, people aren’t as afraid so there are some changes, but some sectors are still materially impacted.
- Toning/Fitness Category: consumer response is great, but there won’t be a material impact until they fully catch up with the trend. Every style developed is winning, demand is high and price sits well with consumer. Its in all doors.
- The Oprah Impact: hurt the inventories by 60 days so that impacted for quite a while. Oprah impact was about $19.9 - $20 mm on revenue.
- ASPs: planned on fairly tight, relatively small increase. Based on just how the consumer traffic is out there, it might be something where PSS might want to take it up a tick more, than where it is now. Still working on engineering the prices. Really increased value scores and pricing scores in the second half of the year.
- Relationship with brands in wholesale and other retailers: announcing later a new relationship with one of PSS’s brands and another retailer. Planned to be a great American brand. Very happy when PSS brands find the perfect home with a winning retailer.
- Easter Impact: there will be an impact from an earlier Easter for Payless especially.
- Stride Rite: placed the good better best strategy in December and started seeing benefits in Q1.
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%